Polls this far before an election are not very predictive as many people have not made up their minds and many events to come could influence the results. The national polls also mean little as the electoral college determines the winner based upon individual state results. While polling in individual states can change dramatically between now and the election, current polls look very favorable for Obama.
Ohio was a key state in 2004 and this year it looks like the Buckeye State is going to go blue. Public Policy Polling, which was accurate in their predictions for the Democratic Primary, shows Obama with a 50% to 39% lead over McCain.
Virginia also looks competitive. Rasmussen shows Obama with a one point lead. A Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain only leading by two points in Nevada. Other red states might not be likely to flip, but Obama is doing much better than expected. For example, Rasmussen only gives McCain a ten point lead in Kansas, which might force McCain to devote resources just to hold on to formerly solidly Republican states.
Due to leads in several red states, predictions with regards to the electoral college look very favorable for Obama. Mark Nicholas has listed several:
Obama McCain Net
Electoral-Vote.com 304 221 Obama +83
FiveThirtyEight.com 300 238 Obama +62
Real Clear Politics 238 190 Obama +48
Rasmussen Reports 260 240 Obama +20
MSNBC 200 200 Tied
CNN 190 194 McCain +4
(The formating isn't working well but hopefully readers can figure out the intent of the columns.)
It is interesting that the two media polls, which have an interest in portraying a close horse race, show the race to be closer than the more independent sites. Naturally CNN, the Conservative News Network, has the most favorable results for McCain. MSNBC, which in recent years has tried moving to the left after their attempts to be a Fox clone failed financially, has them tied as a good representation of their mixed ideological nature.
We still have not seen the impact of the fundamentalists, once the right wing gets them whipped up about the civil rights of non-heterosexuals.
We still have not seen the impact of the citizens, once they comprehend that Obama wants to give us all back our civil rights, including habeas corpus, and what will McCain make of the terrorists getting habeas corpus, scaring the soccer moms to give up their children’s freedom.
To bad the Dem’s didnt have McClellans book as a playbook before 2006. We could have had a campaign based on impeachment. Neither Pelosi nor Reid seem to have any courage, or a sense of their oath of office.
My prediction is that we will have our last two party presidential election this year. The left has been abandoned by cowards and the conservatives have been abandoned. If it were not for the venom people feel about Nader handing the presidency to Bush from the last one, I would guess that the Green party could be the one to drive the stake in the heart of the pretense of two party system in this country. When Nader finally retires, maybe someone with vim and vigor can make the Green party the true leader of the disenfranchised and the 10’s of millions who never even register.
Is farfetched to think that a high African-American turnout in the south could result in a blue state or two?
Ben,
Maybe. There are a few southern states which might flip. Even if they don’t, they could get close enough to force McCain to devote time and money in them.
I am curious. Being that there are so many younger voters coming into the fray, what are the true polling results? Many of these “new’ voters only have cell phones and are not captured in the polling at all.
Comments?
It is hard to say how much of an impact this has on polling results.
Back in 2004 before the Iowa caucus I recall supporters of Howard Dean arguing that the polls underestimated the results because of this. It turned out that he did even worse than predicted. Similarly there were many Ron Paul supporters claiming he would be more competitive than the polls indicated due to his support from the young.
There is one reason to believe that this factor might be more significant than in the past. In many previous elections the young might have supported a certain candidate when polled but they didn’t turn out to vote in high numbers. In the primaries Obama did do well in actually getting them to vote.
I wonder about big states like Texas. Will McCain actually get their vote? I saw huge lines for the Democrats during the primaries.
Short of a total collapse for McCain it is hard to see the Democrats winning Texas.