Obama Extending Lead in Democratic Race

The Democratic race is certainly not over, but baring a major change in the dynamics it is looking quite hard for Clinton to win without resorting to tactics which would totally divide the party and probably destroy any chance of her winning the presidency. All news services now place Obama in the lead:

NBC: Obama 1,078, Clinton 969
CBS: Obama 1,242, Clinton 1,175 
ABC: Obama 1,232, Clinton 1,205
CNN: Obama 1,215, Clinton 1,190
AP: Obama 1,223, Clinton 1,198

NBC only counts committed delegates won at caucuses and in primaries while the others include their estimates of super delegates. The committed delegates is the key number because it will be difficult for the super delegates to over rule the decision of the voters. Chuck Todd describes how difficult it will be for Clinton to overcome her current deficit:

For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead — which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote — she’ll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama’s way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton’s percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead… 

This is especially difficult with the momentum going against Clinton. Some cite New Hampshire as an example of a Clinton come back. What is forgotten is that Obama went from far behind in the polls to coming close enough to tie for delegates. If New Hampshire had continued their usual practice of randomizing the candidates on their slate of over twenty candidates the race would have been even closer. Some believe that simply being on the top of the ballot was enough of an advantage for Clinton to receive a slight majority of the popular vote.

The lesson of New Hampshire when applied to Ohio and Texas is that Obama can close large gaps in the polls in a short period of time. He may or may not win in those states, but it is doubtful Clinton can win by enough to pick up significantly more delegates.

Today things just seem to be going from bad to worse for Clinton. The latest news is that another super delegate, David Wilhelm, who was manager of Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, is endorsing Barack Obama. AP reports, “Wilhelm planned to tell reporters that Obama can build a coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans needed to win the general election.”

Anibal Acevedo-Vila, Governor of Puerto Rico, is also endorsing Obama. Puerto Rico, with 63 delegates, is the last to vote on June 7. While Obama eliminated Clinton’s previous lead among Latino voters last night, this endorsement may still be of value to ensure that this trend continues.

Be Sociable, Share!

1 Comment

  1. 1
    janet says:

    Our state went overwhelmingly for Obama. (Washington) Both of our super delegate senators, Cantwell and Murray, have endorsed Clinton. I just signed a petition being circulated today to encourage them to change their endorsements to Obama to reflect the clear and obvious choice of their constituents.

    At least Gov. Gregoire has endorsed Obama.

Leave a comment