Obama Stronger Candidate Than Clinton Against McCain

It is risky predicting what will happen months before an election but at this time I believe that the next president will be either Barack Obama or John McCain. In other words it comes down to what the Democrats do. Nominate Obama and they have a fighting chance of winning. Nominate Clinton and it’s all over. One way or another the Bush/Clinton dynasty ends this January.

A poll from Time still leaves some hope for the Democrats to win with Clinton, but the odds are sure a lot better with Obama. Here are the two match ups.

  • Obama 48%, McCain 41%
  • Clinton 46%, McCain 46%

Independents account for the different results:

The difference, says Mark Schulman, CEO of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll for TIME, is that “independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator.” Independents, added Schulman, “are a key battleground.”

Besides the loss of the independents, a match up against McCain will be very difficult for Clinton. Some of her success in the Democratic primaries has been based upon the myth that she has meaningful experience. This won’t do her any good in a campaign against McCain. With Clinton as the candidate, the Democrats also lose the advantage of having a consistent anti-war candidate. McCain will come off as the straight talker compared to a candidate such as Clinton who has already been exposed for taking considerable liberties with the truth. While McCain has admitted to little knowledge of economics, the alternative with Clinton is actually worse. A little knowledge as Clinton has in the hands of a big government junkie like Clinton is a dangerous thing. Her economic proposals do not stand up to close scrutiny, such as with the many flaws in her plan to deal with the mortgage crisis. If Clinton goes into the race with only a tie against McCain, her chances of maintaining it are poor.