Obama Well on Track

With California still outstanding. the night is going very well for Obama. He’s not doing as well as in the exit polls I mentioned earlier, with considerable skepticism, and therefore the race will go on. At the moment he is in a better position than Clinton. Here’s how the states are projected so far:

  • Clinton: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arizona
  • Obama: Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Alabama, North Dakota, Utah, Kansas, Connecticut, Minnesota, Idaho, Colorado

Obama is winning more states and, more importantly, might wind up with more delegates. Clinton won some of the larger states but Obama kept it close enough to still receive a good share of the delegates. Chuck Todd was on MSNBC estimating that Obama was ahead in the delegate count so far. Obama’s campaign estimates a lead of 606 to 534 in the delegate count, with The Politico noting that they earned credibility by getting the delegate prediction right after the Nevada caucus. This could still even out by the end of the night but regardless of who wins the most delegates, Obama will either lead or at worst be close behind Clinton.

Remaining close to Clinton might be all Obama needs to eventually win the nomination. The schedule now favors Obama, who has an excellent chance of winning the next few primaries and increasing his momentum. Even in the states which are still toss ups, Obama benefits from a calendar in which there are only a couple of states voting a week. One trend we have seen is that the more the voters see Obama the more likely they are to vote for him, while the opposite is often true with Clinton. It also helps Obama that he raised almost three times as much money as Clinton in January.

Obama is winning a combination of blue and red states. While he couldn’t get the hoped for upset in states such as New Jersey he is still performing reasonably in the large blue states and will prevent Clinton from taking a meaningful lead in delegates in the states she has won. Obama has won more red states than Clinton, some by large margins, and overall looks like he is picking up significantly more votes than Clinton in the red states. People who vote for a candidate in the primaries will come out to voe for them in the general election, and Obama is showing he can compete in the red states while Clinton cannot. Hopefully factors such as that will influence many of the super delegates, who might make the final decision if the race remains close.

Update: Add California to Clinton’s list. Obama picks up Alaska by a large margin and narrowly wins the bellwether state of Missouri. New Mexico is not yet accounted for. It looks like Obama will come out with a narrow lead in delegates from Super Tuesday after California is factored in. The conventional wisdom was that Obama would have the edge in the nomination battle if he kept Clinton from picking up less than one hundred more delegates than him. It looks like Obama is going to do much better than that. Obama has the edge going into the second half of the battle, but his recent momentum left him short of what he needed to definitely stop Clinton.

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5 Comments

  1. 1
    Christopher says:

    With New Mexico finally counted and going to Barack Obama, the delegate count has been adjusted and Obama now has the most delegates following Super Tuesday.

    Delegate totals:

    Barack Obama: 838

    Hillary Clinton: 834

    SOURCE: MSNBC

  2. 2
    Gob Bluth says:

    I think if you’re BO, you’ve got to be feeling pretty good. If that doesn’t do it, check your campaign’s bank balance, and it should have you doing cartwheels.

    TPM is reporting that Clinton loaned her cmampaign $5M in January – surely not a good sign. And it’s my understanding that many of her contributors are maxed out. No going back to those wells….

    And it only gets better. Speaking as a Virginian – this is Obama country. We’re almost tailor made for him to pull off a strong victory. Large African American community, where his support is solid. And he typically outpaces Clinton among educated, high wage earners – enough of them from Fredericksburg to the DC suburbs to add to his column. Add to both of those the support of popular Governor Tim Kaine (an early endorser), and 2/12 is looking good.

  3. 3
    Ryan says:

    Here is my delegate count after Super Tuesday.

    Obama: 63 (IA, NH, NV, SC) + ~840 = 903

    Clinton: 48 + ~830 = 878

    That seems pretty good to me, especially with the states coming up.

  4. 4
    Christopher says:

    Obama has 903? Woo hoo! Smoking!

  5. 5
    Ryan says:

    Oops. Sorry. Forgot to close the link.

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