Obama Surges in Gallup Poll

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Today’s Gallup Tracking Poll confirms my suspicions that yesterday’s results were an exception from the trend. Obama has moved the closest yet to Clinton as he is only down two points and back within the margin or error after trailing by seven points yesterday. There is not enough data to explain the results, leaving me free to continue speculating without fear of being proven wrong. These results remain consistent with my predictions that Clinton would receive a bump after Edwards left the race from downscale Democratic voters. Subsequent factors including Obama’s overall momentum, the tendency of voters to move towards Obama and away from Clinton the more they see of each, and the recent union endorsements have minimized Clinton’s gains from Edwards supporters.

The closeness of the national poll is consistent with various state polls which show the race tightening in states such as California and New Jersey where Clinton previously had large leads. Obama even leads Clinton in California in the latest Zogby poll.

All the caveats I’ve previously discussed remain in trying to predict the outcome on Super Tuesday based upon these polls. What is notable is that Clinton no longer has a huge lead either nationally or in most of the Super Tuesday states suggesting that at worst the race will move on, with the February schedule favoring Obama. Clinton previously expected to clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday, but it no longer appears that she will be able to receive a significant lead in delegates. If Clinton picks up less than two hundred more delegates than Obama the remaining schedule will still favor an eventual victory for Obama. Should Obama take the lead on Super Tuesday he will likely cruise to the nomination.

John McCain remains well ahead of Mitt Romney with a 43% to 24% lead. Huckabee isn’t far behind Romney at 18% and might further prevent Romney from picking up any momentum by taking some of the southern states. Ron Paul remains out of the race despite all the money his supporters have contributed, only receiving the support of 4%. The winner take all nature of many of the Republican primaries can give McCain an overwhelming lead if he performs as the polls suggest, but Romney does have a slight lead in some California polls, which might keep him in the race a little longer.

Update: Double good news for Obama from Gallup today. Besides the three day tracking polls, there’s also the regular USA Today/Gallup Poll which was released. In this poll Clinton leads Obama by only 45% to 44%, well within the three percent margin of error. This represents a gain of eleven points in the past two weeks for Obama. McCain leads Romney 42% to 24% in the Republican Poll, which has a four percent margin of error.

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1 Comment

  1. 1
    Luv says:

    There’s no doubt that Obama is that close nationally and in California because the Clinton Campaign (I refuse to believe it’s just “supporters”) have resorted to push-polling in California.

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/02/breaking-news-p.html

    I can smell the desperation all the way here in Maryland…

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