Hillary Clinton Watch

For the past year the conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton has virtually locked up the 2008 Democratic nomination. Perhaps she peaked too soon, as pundits cannot resist dumping on the front runner. Check Todd writes of potential problems for Clinton at National Journal. Andrew Sullivan urges her not to run, warning that she is the one thing which could reunite the divided conservatives in opposition. Political Wire even quotes the Iowa Democratic Chair noting she has not been preparing for the Iowa caucuses and is wondering whether she will run:

Said Iowa Democratic Chair Rob Tully: “She’s been quiet and, you know, there’s a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama. Some people just wanted to touch him.

I wouldn’t count Hillary out yet. Most likely she is not preparing for the Iowa caucuses figuring they won’t mean much if Vilsack is in the race, analogous to when Harkin was a candidate making the Iowa caucus irrelevant to the nomination in the past. By the way, the ultimate winner that year was Bill Clinton. Still, there’s no telling how much more vulnerable she will be if she loses the aura of inevitability.

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  1. 1
    Probus says:

    Her not showing up in IA will only help Kerry. He won in IA in 2004 can could win again regardless of whether Clinton campaigns there or not. I think its critical for her to win IA if she wants to win the nomination. That is not to say that she can’t win the dem nomination if she loses IA. The IA dem activists who support her might feel snubbed and could go to another candidate. Her not going to IA might also give the impression that she doesn’t care about what Iowans think of her. It may give that perception even if it’s not true.

  2. 2
    Ron Chusid says:

    It depends whether Vilsack sweeps Iowa making it irrelevant, similar to how Harkin allowed Bill go ignore Iowa.

  3. 3
    battlebob says:

    Don’t forget about John Edwards in Iowa. He has a solid staff and he is working the state hard.

    The article is dated but it describes his strength which is not diminishing there.


  4. 4
    Probus says:

    Both Edwards and Clark are expected to run. But both are in debt from their 2004 presidential race. They would have to pay off their debts and then they would be allowed to raise money if in fact their decide to run for the presidency again. This puts Kerry in a very good position, he doesn’t have any debts (as far as I know).

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