The Wall Street Journal reports that extra precautions are in place this year to prevent journalists and bloggers from getting their hands on exit poll data early in the day, which is understandable considering the misuse of the leaked data in the past. Leaked raw exit poll data in 2004 created the myth, still spread by some, that the exit polls proved a stolen election, distracting from the actual election problems. In order to prevent the release of data early in the day, polling specialists reviewing the data will be locked in a room until 5:00 p.m. Undoubtedly the data will be leaked after that. It is hoped that data from later in the day will be a more accurate predictor of the results than earlier data, but the limitation of such data must still be kept in mind. From The Wall Street Journal:
Two-by-two, polling specialists from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press will go into rooms in New York and Washington shortly before noon Tuesday. Their cellphones and BlackBerrys will be confiscated; proctors will monitor the doors; and for the next five hours, these experts will pore over exit-poll data from across the country.
If all goes well, only when they emerge from their cloisters will the legions of ravenous political bloggers have any chance of getting their hands on the earliest indication of which party will end up controlling Congress.
“The demand for info is intense, and if the safeguards aren’t steel doors bolting people inside a room, it will get out,” says Marc Ambinder, associate editor of National Journal’s Hotline OnCall. “The insatiable appetite for this info will overwhelm the ability to keep it secret.”
The extraordinary security is a result of mix-ups that prompted grumbling about the accuracy of exit polls after the 2004 presidential election: Bloggers posted data from early exit polls, incorrectly calling some states for Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry and indicating that he would unseat President Bush.
This year, media executives figure the secret will keep less than half an hour. “Based on past experience, I expect that I’ll have exit-poll data soon after it’s released from multiple sources,” Taegan Goddard of the newsy independent blog Political Wire says in an email…
News organizations use exit polls to give them an early sense of the electorate’s mood to shape and guide coverage later that night when the real results come in. As the data become more complete throughout the day, NEP and news organizations use them to project winners when the polls close. TV news anchors know the results, but are honor-bound not to disclose them until the polls close in the individual states. Sometimes, however, they can’t resist alluding to some results with broad statements about the mood of the electorate.
Poll results are for internal use for the most part, but are generally the worst-kept secret in the news business. On Election Day, exit polls are the coin of the realm in Washington, and some reporters and editors can’t resist sharing top-line data among themselves and with political operatives. Consequently, the information can reach bloggers from any number of sources.
Mainstream news organizations know that bloggers will eventually get their hands on the exit-poll data, but their goal is to delay it as long as possible because the accuracy of the data improves as the day goes on…
“People need to realize those numbers aren’t the real results,” says David Bohrman, vice president of news and production at CNN’s Washington bureau, who urges people to be cautious when interpreting poll results. “They show why people voted today, and what was on their minds. The only real way to figure out who won is to count the votes.”
Pollster.com, which tries to explain the mechanics behind polls, agrees. Exit polls are “still a sample,” he says. “Don’t get all excited about it.” In 2004, Mr. Blumenthal posted a warning in the morning about the vagaries of exit polling data and says he’ll post another Tuesday. “You learn the hard way that a one- or two-point lead on a leaked exit poll is meaningless,” he says…
Unreliable or not, for many bloggers exit polls are just too juicy to ignore. “Basically, yeah, we’ll run everything we get the second we get it,” says Alex Pareene of the irreverent Washington blog Wonkette. “Give the people what they want.”
