Romney In Serious Trouble In South Carolina

In covering primary and caucus votes I’ve held to two principles: 1) polls, especially in early contests, are meaningless until just before the actual vote, and 2) each vote has the potential to change the dynamic of the nomination battle making polls of  subsequent events open to considerable change. These principles were clear when John Kerry and Barack Obama used come from behind victories in Iowa in 2004 and 2008 to defeat the previous front runners for the Democratic nominations. This year, South Carolina has the potential to derail the campaign of Mitt Romney.

The script was supposed to read that South Carolina would be Romney’s third consecutive win, making his nomination inevitable. While Romney very well can still go on to win, this script is now in doubt. Newt Gingrich has overtaken Romney in late polls, while Santorum has been given the win in Iowa. A loss tonight would make Romney one out of three.

Romney has taken some serious hits, including questions about his years at Bain Capital, his admission that he only pays 15 percent in income taxes, his money in the Cayman Islands, and his poor response to questions about releasing his income tax returns. Added to clear demonstrations that Romney has no convictions or ideas as to how to govern, even if he still should win the nomination it is questionable whether he can compete in a general election campaign.  Exit polls from South Carolina are showing that voters are looking for the candidate with the best shot at beating Barack Obama, but the old conventional wisdom that this is Romney might no longer hold. At this point Newt Gingrich, with all his faults, very well might be the Republican’s most competitive candidate in a general election campaign–which should be very scary for anyone crazy enough to want to see a Republican in the White House.

I wonder how much more momentum Santorum might have received if he had been declared the winner at the time of the actual vote. His initial placement in second place, along with the endorsement from portions of the religious right, appear to be insufficient to make him the major non-Romney candidate in South Carolina. The main difference is probably that Gingrich, from neighboring Georgia, is better able to play into the fears and prejudices of southern Republican voters. It is doubtful the revelations of his infidelity and request for an open marriage would hurt him at all. The morality of the religious right is in no way related to the morality of decent, honorable people who reject their archaic world view. Many in the religious right hold a strange world view where the paternalistic display of power by Newt over his previous wives would be seen as favorable, and Gingrich’s attack on the press for discussing this would be an even bigger plus. Rights of women and the concept of a free press are two ideas which are foreign to them.

The campaign also got down to the final four this week, first helping Romney and then non-Romney. There is a tremendous benefit to being declared first even before the GOP race allows winner take all votes in April. While Jon Huntsman never caught on, it became possible that his votes could make a difference in allowing Romney to hold on to first place in what was then a five way race. Rick Perry’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich helps balance that vote. The question in upcoming states will be whether Gingrich and Santorum divide the conservative vote, while Ron Paul, who has zero chance of actually winning, siphons off enough additional votes to allow Romney to come in first.

Should Romney have a strong showing today he will become very difficult to beat. However, should Gingrich win then the polls showing Romney with leads in Florida and other states might no longer have any meaning. A win for Gingrich in South Carolina would give an entirely new narrative in the Florida race. Romney’s national lead has fallen to ten points in the latest Gallup tracking poll. That poll was a five day rolling average taken between January 15 and 19. Romney’s position at the end of that period  could even be worse., after leading by twenty-three points at the start of the week. Romney could fall even further if he loses in South Carolina, possibly leading to a loss in Florida, or at very least keeping the race going into more states.

Poll Finds 43 Percent Believe God Helps Tebow Win

There are certainly a lot of ignorant Americans. A recent poll found that 43 percent believe God helps Tim Tebow win football games.

I wonder how they explain the games in which Tebow doesn’t win. Did Tebow (or his fans) do something wrong to cause God to make him lose, or does God lack the power to control everything in a football game?

Even more importantly, if they believe that God is interested in football to the point of intervening, why doesn’t God intervene in more important areas which might reduce human suffering. Do they really believe that intervening to determine who wins a football game is more important to God than intervening to prevent the Holocaust?

Gallup Shows Voter Misconceptions Regarding Views of the Candidates

In recent years multiple polls have showed that voters are far closer to the Democrats, including Barack Obama, on the issues when questions are asked purely based upon issues and not candidates. However, this has often failed to translate into support at the ballot box, partially because of voters not knowing the actual positions of the candidates. A Gallup poll shows that voters perceive the views of  Republican candidates to be closer to their own while they see greater differences between themselves and Obama. In other words, there are voters who agree with Obama on the issues but, due to all the right wing propaganda claiming he is a far left socialist, many voters fail to realize this.

On the one hand, this shows the success of the right wing noise machine. On the other hand, looking further into the poll, it is Republicans, as opposed to either independents or Democrats, who are most likely to see Obama as being on the far left. Republican views are so warped that they shift the overall result, while the perceptions of candidates by independents are far closer to those of Democrats. The poll found, “Obama’s mean ideology rating ends up furthest away from Americans’ own mean score because Republicans place him far to the left, with an average of 1.7, compared with 2.5 among independents and 2.8 among Democrats.”

Another example of how little voters in the poll understand the actual position of the candidates is seen with Ron Paul. Those who see other Republicans as having view similar to their views say the same of Ron Paul.  Regardless of whose views are preferable, it is clear that Ron Paul does not occupy the same portion of the political spectrum as other Republican candidates. This shows why Paul has surged in some Iowa polls, but once his views become known it is hard to see him surviving in GOP contests beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.

While it is primarily Republicans, who would not vote for Obama under any circumstance, who see his views as far different from their views, there are bound to be some swing voters who now are saying they will not vote for Obama based upon misconceptions about his ideology. At least it will be far easier to win the votes of such individuals by showing what Obama’s actual views are, as opposed to having to change people’s minds on the issues.  The Democrats have an edge if they can actually get people who agree with them on the issues to vote for Democratic candidates. The Democrats need to make it clear where they stand, as opposed to frequently allowing the right wing media to define them.

 

Gingrich Becoming The Next Not-Romney Candidate

There might be a major shake-up underway in the Republican nomination race. Polls such as the McClatchy-Marist poll show Cain falling and Gingrich now turning it into a three-way race.  If Gingrich doesn’t self-destruct like Perry and Cain, it is possible that Gingrich could win the nomination.

There are enough conservatives who do not want Mitt Romney to win that, should they unite behind one, Romney could still be denied the nomination. At this point Romney is looking a lot like Hillary Clinton did four years ago.  If Gingrich could win in Iowa, come in a respectable second in New Hampshire, and then go on to win in South Carolina, he could go on to win the nomination. There might be a protracted fight between Gingrich and Romney, with other conservatives also picking up votes, with Romney unable to gain over fifty percent of the delegates. The questions will be whether Gingrich can maintain his momentum when he becomes the target of other candidates and whether enough conservatives start to back him.

Independents Realize That Republicans Are Hindering Economic Recovery

While there has always been conflict between the political parties, Republicans have taken this to a new level. Republicans have made it clear that their number one priority was for Barack Obama to fail, and they have pursued this goal regardless of how much harm is done to the country. While the filibuster has been used for ages, the Republicans have changed the nature of the filibuster in almost routinely forcing the Democrats to have sixty votes to pass bills, resulting in an unprecedented number of filibusters while the Republicans have been in the minority.  Once taking control of the House, they have used their power to pass legislation to kill jobs and block Obama’s plans which would increase jobs and help prevent another recession. Finally, what was once unthinkable is now being openly discussed: the Republicans are using their power to prevent economic recovery in the hope that this helps them win in 2012. This may or may not work as two polls now show that a majority of independents and moderates realize that this is the case.

The first poll was limited to Florida:

With 51 percent of voters saying that jobs and the economy are the most pressing issues in the nation today, 49 percent said they believe that the Republicans are intentionally hindering efforts to boost the economy so that President Barack Obama will not be reelected. Thirty-nine percent disagreed. As expected, most registered Democrats (70 percent) agreed that Republicans are intentionally hindering the economy and hurting Obama, but independents (52 percent) and even some Republicans (24 percent) also agreed.

A national poll found comparable results today:

…the Post poll asks people to choose between two options. This: “President Obama is making a good faith effort to deal with the country’s economic problems, but the Republicans in Congress are playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.” Or this: “President Obama has not provided leadership on the economy, and he is just blaming the Republicans in Congress as an excuse for not doing his job.”

The toplines: Americans agree with the first statement over the second one, 50-44. According to numbers sent my way by the Post polling team, this is more pronounced among moderates and independents:

* Independents favor statement one over statement two by 54-40.

* Moderates favor statement one over statement two by 57-37.

The overall number is lower, at 50 percent, because a hilariously meager nine percent of Republicans believe this to be the case.

The results are encouraging but do  not mean that Obama won’t have difficulties in running for reelection with a weak economy. I’ve seen multiple elections were polls showed that voters agreed with Democrats on the issues but voted Republican. That result was largely due to voters being unaware of how closely Democratic positions matched their own because of the considerable amount of distortion of Democratic views coming from the right wing noise machine, but unless Democrats do a better job of connecting the dots for less knowledgeable voters, I fear that these polling results will also fail to lead to votes.

Now that there are polls showing that voters are receptive to the facts regarding this argument, the Democrats need to get the message out. Democrats tend to have the facts supporting their case hidden away in intellectual publications while Republicans loudly repeat their misinformation until too many people see their lies as facts. Democrats need to make more noise about what has really been happening with the economy with messages including:

  • Republican ideas have caused the economic problems, and the Republicans are working hard to prevent recovery for political gain
  • The nature of the political system allows the Republicans to block plans for economic recovery
  • Republicans have made passage of needed legislation even more difficult with their unprecedented use of the filibuster
  • There is no evidence that a slight increase in the marginal tax rate on millionaires will hinder the economy–in contrast we have seen considerable economic growth during periods with much higher tax rates
  • The Republican claim that Democrats are putting more regulations on business and hindering the economy are also false.
  • Reducing spending in areas where it either harms the middle class or neglects infrastructure further weakens the economy.

 

Two Polls Show Americans Prefer Occupy Wall Street Over Tea Party Two to One

With polls showing growing public opposition to the Tea Party movement, I had questions as to whether the Occupy Wall Street movement would receive public support. I initially suspected that most people might not pay attention to the views promoted by OSW and might be turned off by what might come across as another extremist group, especially with a word such as “occupy” in their name. Americans deserve more credit, both seeing through the misnamed Tea Party movement and showing support for the actual goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement. Two recent polls show a considerable difference between public opinion regarding the two groups.

Greg Sargent reported on one poll from Time Magazine:

Despite nonstop GOP and conservative disparagement of the Wall Street protests, the most detailed polling yet on Occupy Wall Street suggests that the public holds a broadly favorable view of the movement — and, crucially, the positions it holds.

Time released a new poll this morning finding that 54 percent view the Wall Street protests favorably, versus only 23 percent who think the opposite. Interestingly, only 23 percent say they don’t have an opinion, suggesting the protests have succeeded in punching through to the mainstream. Also: The most populist positions espoused by Occupy Wall Street — that the gap between rich and poor has grown too large; that taxes should be raised on the rich; that execs responsible for the meltdown should be prosecuted — all have strong support.

Meanwhile, the poll found that only 27 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party. My handy Plum Line calculator tells me that this amounts to half the number of those who view Occupy Wall Street favorably.

Think Progress reported on this poll as well as another poll with similar results:

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that Americans support the Occupy Wall Street protests by a two-to-one margin (37 percent in favor, 18 percent opposed) while more Americans view the Tea Party negatively (28 percent in favor, 41 percent opposed). This means the Occupy Wall Street protests have a net favorability of +19 percent while the Tea Party has a net favorability of -13 percent…

Would You Trust Your Retirement With A Political Party Which Considers Social Security To Be A Ponzi Scheme?

Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are far from the only Republicans who consider Social Security to be a Ponzi scheme. Many conservative writers, such as Charles Krauthammer are making the same flawed argument, confusing tax-supported government programs with actions which are allowable in the private sector, and ignoring the possibility of changing with changing conditions. Mona Charen has a column showing that Mitch Daniels has also called Social Security a Ponzi scheme, but this should cause no surprise . The echo chamber of the right wing noise machine has claimed this so often that, like a long list of other fallacies, it is very widely believed to be true on the right.

Opposition to Social Security will hurt the Republicans in the general election, a fact which is more important than polls taken today, but it might not hurt candidates for the Republican nomination. This is demonstrated in a new Gallup poll:

Texas Gov. and presidential candidate Rick Perry’s comments on Social Security, which include calling it a “Ponzi scheme,” appear to be a non-issue for most Republicans. However, they could cost him support with independents should he ultimately win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. As many Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Perry for president because of his views on Social Security as say they are less likely — 19% each. Among independents, 12% are more likely to vote for him and 32% less likely…

Perry’s decision to critique the financing structure of Social Security in stronger terms than are typically heard from most presidential candidates may not be risky within Republican circles. As many Republicans say they are more likely to support Perry as a result as say they are less likely, with most indicating it won’t make a difference. However, independents view his comments more negatively and, in line with Romney’s argument that this makes Perry unelectable, nearly 4 in 10 Republicans agree it could hurt Perry in a general election.

Tactically speaking, Perry might benefit in the short term by playing to the large minority of Republicans who favor more radical changes to the system. That could help him consolidate conservative support, further squeezing out Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and others. But as the Republican presidential field is winnowed during the primaries — and particularly if it is reduced to just Perry and Romney — this controversy could complicate Perry’s chance of winning the nomination and, ultimately, the general election.

Most Americans understand what a major success Social Security has been to provide financial assistance for the elderly and disabled and would not want to see this program destroyed. The views which gain support from the extremists who dominate the Republican primaries will be rejected by a large majority of Americans.

The Good News In The Polls

While recent polls do have been bad for those of us who care about preserving rationality and support for the principles this country was founded upon beyond the 2012 election, there has actually been some good news for Obama, if he can capitalize on it. Ben Smith points out that voters do like Obama:

Obama receives particularly low marks for his economic stewardship, with only 39 percent saying they approve and 59 percent saying they disapprove.
And yet, in a seeming contradiction, voters still really like Obama.

Putting aside how they feel about his job performance, 74 percent of voters said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Obama as a person, his highest rating in the past year. His solid personal popularity remains a source of pride — and hope — for top advisers who spent 2008 trying to get voters to identify with Obama, an African-American with roots in Hawaii, Indonesia and Chicago.

I would not downplay either the benefits of being liked by voters or the risks of being an incumbent when the economy is not doing well, even if it is the opposing party’s ideas which have created and prolonged this mess. There is some good news in the polls even 0n the economy. Many times in the past we have seen Republicans lead in polls despite voters preferring Democratic policies. We are seeing a phenomenon along these lines as voters in the same poll are expressing dissatisfaction over Obama on the economy while supporting his actual polices. Greg Sargent writes:

Here’s a striking disconnect that speaks volumes about Obama’s political problem right now: In the new NBC/WSJ poll, Americans express strong disapproval of Obama’s performance on the economy, and express low confidence that Obama has the right set of ideas to improve it.

And then, later in the very same poll, Americans are asked whether they support a range of Obama’s actual fiscal and economic policies. In every case, a majority or plurality supports them.

It’s true. The poll finds that only 37 percent approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, versus 59 percent who disapprove. It also finds that only 31 percent are “extremely confident” or “quite confident” that the President has the right goals and policies to improve the economy, versus a whopping 68 percent who are only somewhat or not at all confident.

But then the pollsters ask about the policies themselves. And here’s what they find:

— A solid majority (60 percent) supports reducing the deficit by ending the Bush tax cuts for the rich.

— A solid majority (56 percent) supports reducing the deficit through a combination of tax increases and spending cuts.

— Only 37 percent support the GOP’s solution to the deficit, i.e., reducing it only through spending cuts with no tax hikes on the rich or corporations.

— A plurality supports a federally funded roads construction bill to create jobs, 47-26, which is similar to what Obama is expected to propose in his jobs speech.

— A plurality supports continuing to extend unemployment benefits, 44-39.

— A plurality supports an extension of the payroll tax cut, 40-20.

As Steve Benen notes, this bodes well for public acceptance of Obama’s jobs speech on Thursday. After all, it would appear possible that disapproval of Obama on the economy is a referendum on the actual state of the economy, rather than on Obama’s suggested current policies for fixing it. While it’s true that the public remains skeptical of Obama’s number one solution to the economy — the stimulus — the public is clearly receptive to the current, unimplemented solutions Obama is championing, even though the same public generally disapproves of Obama’s economic performance.

This both suggests that Obama might be able to withstand a poor economy and outlines what Obama must do, not only on Thursday, but over the next fourteen months. Obama must make it clear to voters that the policies he supports are those which they have indicated they want, as well as demonstrating that Republican policies would again be disastrous for the country. A president who is liked, as the polls indicate Obama is, should have a much better shot of making this case. The mindset of the voters might better be seen not in Obama’s current poll numbers, but in the poll numbers of his opponents, including rapidly growing public distaste for the ideas of the so-called Tea Party. This is a battle of ideas which Obama still stands a reasonable chance of winning.

Perry’s Palin-Style Surge

It is not surprising that, soon after entering the race, Rick Perry has moved to the lead in the Republican race considering the weakness of the field. As Governor of Texas, he avoids the problems of candidates (and potential candidates)  such as Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin of not appearing qualified to hold national office. By taking extreme conservative positions, he avoids the problems of candidates such as Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. He has even taken a lead over Obama in the latest Rasmussen poll, although if you believed the results from this right -wing polling outfit  the country would be far to the right of where it is now, Hillary Clinton would have beaten Barack Obama, and a Republican would already be in the White House.

This doesn’t mean that I don’t think it is possible for Perry to take a lead in the legitimate national polls. I would not be at all surprised if Perry doesn’t enjoy a huge bounce, similar to the one which Sarah Palin briefly enjoyed. Once people learn more about his ideas and past, his public support will undoubtedly fall. For the sake preserving a United States which the founding fathers might still recognize, I sure hope that happens before November, 2012. Otherwise we will believe that the ancient Mayans were right.

Republicans who consider electability as opposed to extremist right-wing philosophy and the anti-Americanism/anti-intellectualism of the so-called Tea Party will realize that Perry is a potential disaster, but they might not have a choice. If the election can be limited to a vote based upon the economy in 2012, then there is the danger that Perry, and even Bachmann or Palin, could actually win, regardless of the fact that Republican economic ideas are responsible for creating and prolonging the recession. If Obama has any success in broadening the playing field to a vote as to what type of American voters really want, Obama still can win big. Republicans already have the burden of running with their Congressional votes to essentially abolish Medicare.  Add to that Perry’s opposition to Social Security, support of theocracy over liberal democracy, and support for plutocracy over capitalism, and we could see a replay of 1964, assuming the Democrats can actually get their message out.

It is far too early to predict the GOP race, but many pundits are now describing it as a battle between Romney and Perry. The two have one thing in common. Both have taken more moderate positions in the past, and have more recently espoused nutty right wing views to improve their position it the GOP. The difference is that, despite pandering to the far right on a number of issues, Romney has avoided a handful of extremist views while Perry has gone as far right as possible without donning a white sheet or brown shirt, giving him far more credibility on the right.  Plus having actually implemented a health care plan similar to Obama’s is a far more serious offense than just writing in support of Hillary Clinton’s plan as Perry once did. After all, the plan which passed is essentially the Republican counter-proposal to Clinton’s plan with most leading Republicans already being on record as supporting its features in the past.

Perry’s entry does alter Romney’s game plan. Until now, Romney has been able to get away with raising tons of money while generally keeping a low profile and limiting attacks upon him. He must now campaign more openly and  gamble by showing that Perry is too radical to become president, recognizing that doing this might actually endear him even more to Republican primary voters. At least having Romney and Huntsman exposing Perry’s most radical viewpoints will make things easier for Obama should Perry become his opponent, potentially reducing his national support to Palin-levels as soon as he is nominated.

Obama And The End Of The Post-Partisan Era

Barack Obama attracted many independents in 2008 with his “post-partisan” approach to politics, but this turned out to be far more effective for campaigning against an unpopular incumbent as opposed to governing. Regardless of how much Obama wanted to compromise, the Republicans made opposing everything Obama supported their major goal. Obama’s support of moderate economic policies and a moderate health care reform plan did not prevent bogus claims that Obama is a socialist who supported a government take-over of health care.

As long as Obama’s popularity was soaring far above that of Congress, it was difficult to criticize Obama for maintaining this approach despite my fears that he would eventually suffer in the polls if the economy remained bad. In recent weeks his popularity has dropped, even if it remains well above that of Congress and of Republicans. A recent Pew Research Center survey showed that “Currently, 57% of Democrats say Obama should challenge the Republicans more often, while 32% say he is handling relations with the GOP about right. ” This is up from 37% in April who said Obama should challenge the Republicans more. The number of Independents who want Obama to stand up more to the Republicans has increased from 30% to 36% since April.

The importance of doing this extends beyond these poll numbers. Considering that public opinion regarding the economy typically lags actual improvement by several months, it is likely that a poor economy could cause an incumbent president to lose votes in 2012. It is essential that Obama make the case that it was Republican policies which caused the recession, actions of Congressional Republicans which have hindered recovery, and that further Republican polices will make matters worse.

Perhaps I am overly concerned, considering Obama’s other advantages as an incumbent. Allan Lichtman, an American University professor who has a formula which predicted every presidential race correctly since 1984, has predicted Obama will win reelection. However there really have not been many presidential elections which were very difficult to predict since then, and I also think there is wisdom to the old Clinton mantra that, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Of course the Obama political team which beat Hillary Clinton and then went on to an easy victory in the general election is not stupid either. Presumably they were continuing the same strategy as long as Obama was doing well in the polls, and  now realize that they must change their message. I have seen a number of indicators that they plan to take a harder line against the Republicans, including today’s article in The Hill:

President Obama is preparing to fight a political war this fall on two fronts — the first against Republicans who want his job and the second against Republicans who want to make his job more difficult.

Obama is taking dead-aim at the latter group, targeting Congress in a fall offensive that the president’s reelection campaign hopes will bruise the overall GOP image beyond repair…

When GOP lawmakers return, the president and his team are ready to deliver a flurry of attacks, castigating Congress for inaction on jobs, being on the wrong side of taxes and eager to destroy social safety net programs. If Obama and his team have their way, Americans will come to see every Republican as a Tea Party extremist.

The president previewed this effort when he started throwing jabs while on the road in August.

At a stop in Michigan and repeatedly during his Midwest bus tour, Obama lashed out at Congress for imperiling the economic recovery and playing politics that caused the country’s credit rating to be reduced at a time when he was working for a grand compromise.

The president is still talking about compromise, but his tone and posture indicate he is more — or at least as — interested in combat…

And there’s a bonus to beating Congress to a pulp that officials think will pay off next year.

By forcing the GOP to take positions on such key economic issues as the payroll tax cut and tax cuts for the rich, Obama and his team are hoping to draw out and lock down the president’s 2012 challengers.

Example: If the debate turns on Republicans trying to gut Social Security, then expect the Democratic National Committee to connect the dots from Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the new GOP presidential front-runner, who once wrote that Social Security was “a Ponzi scheme.”