Romney, No Obama, Leads In Polls; Romney Leads In Unpopularity

April 16, 2012 — Ron Chusid

Gallup shows Romney leading 47 percent to 45 percent in their initial daily tracking poll. CNN shows Obama leading by nine points. This primarily shows that it is way too early to believe the polls. Gallup put this in perspective:

History shows that the candidates’ positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.

One more piece of poll history. ABC News/Washington Post found that Romney sets a new record for unpopularity for a presumptive nominee:

Mitt Romney has emerged from the Republican primary season with the weakest favorability rating on record for a presumptive presidential nominee in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1984, trailing a resurgent Barack Obama in personal popularity by 21 percentage points.

Thirty-five percent of Americans see Romney favorably, while 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor. He’s the first likely nominee to be underwater — seen more unfavorably than favorably — in ABC/Post polls in eight presidential primary seasons over the past 28 years.

Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Politics, Polls. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Independent Voters Can Be Won By Democrats–With the Right Arguments

April 9, 2012 — Ron Chusid

A swing state poll from Global Strategy Group has some good news for Obama, and a lesson as to how Democrats should concentrate on attracting more independent voters. They found that swing state independents prefer Obama by six points, but over a third remain undecided. The generic Congressional ballot is tied, with six in ten remaining undecided.

There is a key finding which I am totally unsurprised by but which I fear many Democratic strategists don’t get:

We find that Swing Independents are “opportunity” voters—preferring an optimistic, opportunity framework on the economy over one based on fairness. Why? Opportunity addresses their anxieties about the future, concerns that America is slipping, doubts about how the next generation will succeed, and questions over how we will strengthen our economy.

We all know that Republican voters are motivated by greed, in their case by promises of lower taxes. Other voters are also motivated by self-interest. There are strong arguments as to why Democratic policies lead to a stronger economy and higher incomes. These arguments will win votes, but arguments based upon fairness will not. Sure there are strong arguments that the increase in income disparity, unprecedented since the gilded age, is harmful to the economy as well as unfair. That just doesn’t make a clear enough “elevator pitch” to win elections.

Posted in Barack Obama, Economy, Independents, Politics, Polls. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Women Give Obama Big Lead In Swing States

April 1, 2012 — Ron Chusid

A USA Today/Gallup poll gives Obama a nine point lead over Mitt Romney after trailing by two points in their last survey. The change appears to be a consequence of Republicans recently stressing anti-women positions:

The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney’s support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group..

Romney’s main advantage is among men 50 and older, swamping Obama 56%-38%…

In the poll, Romney leads among all men by a single point, but the president leads among women by 18. That reflects a greater disparity between the views of men and women than the 12-point gender gap in the 2008 election.

Posted in Barack Obama, Politics, Polls. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Santorum Falling

March 2, 2012 — Ron Chusid

A few updates on the primary race since the recent post on the Michigan primary:

Michigan has awarded both of the at-large delegates to Mitt Romney contrary to earlier reports that both Santorum and Romney would receive the same number of delegates. There certainly seems to be a lot of reversals of decisions in the Republican primaries and caucuses this year. I guess we shouldn’t expect a consistent and fair system from the party which used their party’s Supreme Court appointees to steal the 2000 election.

You.gov has Santorum leading in three states on Super Tuesday: Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. A Quinnipiac poll has Santorum leading 35 percent to 31 percent in Ohio with the race too close to call. While he might remain in the race, and might even have an outside chance of winning, I find it unlikely that Santorum can stop Romney unless a has a major win such as in Ohio on Super Tuesday. He made a lot of serious mistakes in Michigan, where he once led, and this interview in Cincinnati doesn’t help matters for him.

Obama’s approval is improving in Ohio. A few more days of seeing the Republican candidates should send his approval even higher.

Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Politics, Polls, Rick Santorum, Social Issues. Tags: , , , , , . No Comments »

Michigan Votes For Republicans Today But Is Now Less Likely To Vote Republican In The Fall

February 28, 2012 — Ron Chusid

The Republican primary battle is ending in Michigan and the candidates will be moving on to suck up to the voters of different states. Just watch. Tomorrow Mitt Romney will be telling the residents of other states that their trees are the ones which are the right height. At the moment it is not possible to predict the winner. Romney retook the lead in most polls but a Public Policy Polling survey did show momentum moving in Santorum’s direction at the last minute. Another last minute poll from Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone shows Romney taking a slight lead in a race which could go either way.

In what might be a sign that Romney’s internal polls are not going well,  Romney is talking about the possibility of a Santorum victory:

Battling for his critical home state of Michigan on Tuesday, Mitt Romney accused Republican rival Rick Santorum of trying to “kidnap our primary process” by getting Democrats to tip the very tight race in favor of Pennsylvania’s former senator.

Flanked by volunteers at his campaign headquarters, Romney conceded that — as recent polls suggest — Santorum might win, and he pointed to his rival’s robo-calls encouraging Democratic crossover voters to turn out in the open primary.

“I think the hardest thing about predicting what’s going to happen today is whether Senator Santorum’s effort to call Democrat households and tell them to come out and vote against Mitt Romney is going to be successful or not. I think Republicans have to recognize there’s a real effort to kidnap our primary process. And if we want Republicans to nominate the Republican who takes on Barack Obama, I need Republicans to get out and vote and say ‘no’ to the dirty tricks of a desperate campaign,” the former Massachusetts governor said.

This is yet another flip-flop for Romney who has admitted to crossing over to vote in a past Democratic primary for strategic reasons:

ABC News’ Jonathan Greenberger Reports: Republican presidential candididate Mitt Romney offered a new explanation today for why he supported a Democrat in 1992.

That year, Romney, then a registered independent, voted for former Sen. Paul Tsongas in the 1992 Democratic presidential primary.  He told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, in an interview that will air Sunday on “This Week,” that his vote was meant as a tactical maneuver aimed at finding the weakest opponent for incumbent President George H.W. Bush.

“In Massachusetts, if you register as an independent, you can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary,” said Romney, who until he made an unsuccessful run for Senate in 1994 had spent his adult life as a registered independent. “When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I’d vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for the Republican.”

It would be devastating for the Republicans should Romney lose. Matthew Dowd raised the possibility of Republicans looking for another candidate:

“If Rick Santorum wins tonight it’s the equivalent of a 9.0 on a Richter scale. I mean it is going to shake Washington, it’s going to shake Republican establishment it’s just going to shake things to their very core,” Dowd told me. “And I think what you’re going to see are the conversations that have been going on behind quiet doors saying we need another candidate in this race.”

It is possible that GOP leaders could fudge the rules, which are vague as to the commitment of delegates to a candidate, to enable another candidate to win. Should they do this, I wonder how many unhappy supporters of the current candidates will feel betrayed by the party and stay home or vote Democratic. Keep in mind how angry many of the PUMA’s were about the defeat of Hillary Clinton, which was done fairly under party rules. Resentment could be even greater if party leaders alter rules to help a new candidate. Even should Romney win, the fact that Santorum has posed such a challenge to Romney has highlighted his weaknesses. Should Romney win narrowly, it might be important as to whether the media presents this as a win for Romney or a close win where Romney looked weak and failed to meet earlier expectations.

I doubt that Michigan would have voted Republican in the general election, but the state had been listed as a battle ground state. Dowd says this is no longer the case:

Ten days ago, Michigan was a major battleground state for the general election, Mitt Romney was looking to reconnect with the middle class in his home state, and Rick Santorum was gaining momentum after three big wins and looking at maybe becoming the first Catholic nominated by the Republican party. The Obama campaign was so concerned about Michigan being in play for the fall that it brought President Obama there to give a major speech and made plans to spend valuable ad dollars in the state.

But that was then.

Now, after the Romney and Santorum campaigns, Michigan is likely off the fall map of battleground states.  It looks again reliably Democratic – not because of anything the Obama team has done, but because of the nature of the contest between Romney and Santorum, which has alienated many independent voters and created a tremendous divide.  This isn’t a good sign as the Republican nomination contest moves into other battleground states like Ohio next week.

Posted in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Michigan News, Mitt Romney, Politics, Polls, Rick Santorum. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Santorum Has Lead But Archaic Views On Contraception May Drag Down His Campaign And The GOP

February 15, 2012 — Ron Chusid

Check out the weather in Hell and be on the look out for flying pigs. Jennifer Rubin has a column I agree with. She points out that Rick Santorum is going to have a tough time getting votes with his anti-contraception views. She also writes, “The impression that Santorum finds the prevalent practice of birth control ‘harmful to women’ is, frankly, mind-numbing.”

Santorum’s archaic views make it difficult to determine which way the Republican nomination battle is going. Republicans are still looking for a non-Romney, but with all the people in the world who are not named Romney, so far they have been stuck with losers named Cain, Bachmann, Perry, and now Santorum. Romney remains unable to convince conservatives that he is one of them, having held both liberal and conservative views on so many issues over the years.  I’m happily married, have a family, and run a business. Applying Mitt Romney’s argument, this makes me a conservative who other conservatives should support for the GOP nomination. No wonder he is having trouble sealing the deal.

At the moment Santorum looks strong in the polls, leading nationally and leading Romney in Michigan, where a loss for Romney could be devastating. Around Michigan the talk is that Romney would make an excellent candidate, if only it was George and not his son. Apparently George H. W. Bush was not the only Republican who wound up with an idiot son. There is even speculation that Romney could have to self-finance his campaign if his big donors give up on him as he has not been able to get the large numbers of small donors who have kept other campaigns going.

So far the Republicans have had eleven front-runners as they go through the list of potential not-Romneys. Each time Romney remained on top as information on each opponent turned out to be so bad that even conservative Republicans couldn’t stomach them. Newt Gingrich has now become the most dis-liked politician in America according to two polls.  We knew that there was no way that even the Republicans would nominate Herman Cain, Donald Trump, or Michele Bachmann. Will Rick Santorum also suffer the same fate, or will social conservatives prevail and make him the GOP candidate? With Rick Santorum surging (and in the case of Rick Santorum, no double entendre is intended with surging), this must mean that conservative “small government” means government small enough to fit through the key hole into your bedroom.

Santorum’s views on contraception would be opposed by strong majorities in a general election, and even most Republicans don’t agree with Santorum.  Virtually all women (more than 99%) aged 15–44 who have ever had sexual intercourse have used at least one contraceptive method.  Overall, 62% of the 62 million women aged 15–44 are currently using a method according to information from the  Guttmacher Institute. These numbers don’t trail by very much even among Catholics. A Pew Research Center survey found that 85 percent of the country believes that contraception is either “not a moral issue” or “morally acceptable.” Eight percent agree with Santorum in viewing contraception as “morally wrong.”

The contraception issue is not only hurting Santorum. It is a wedge issue that can hurt the entire Republican Party. Greg Sargent reviewed some of the pertinent numbers from a New York Times/CBS News poll on whether people support Obama’s policy on mandating contraception.  The poll shows that 66 percent are in support and only 26 percent oppose it. He then reviewed a partisan breakdown of answers:

* Even Republicans support this policy, 50-44.

* Independents support it by 64-26.

* Moderates support it by 68-22.

* Women support it by 72-20.

* Catholics support it by 67-25.

* And even Catholics who attend church every week or almost every week support it by 48-43

We all know that this debate is really over one’s view on contraception, despite Republican efforts to disguise this as an issue over requiring funding by religious institutions. Sargent also looked at the question, “what about for religiously affiliated employers, such as a hospital or university — do you support or oppose a recent federal requirement that their health insurance plans cover the full cost of birth control for their female employees?” The response still was not helpful for the Republicans: “Registered voters say Yes, 61-31; independents say Yes, 59-31; moderates say Yes, 64-29; and even 41 percent of Republicans say Yes, with 53 percent opposed.”

With the Republicans lacking a credible candidate and holding views unpopular with most of the country, it is no surprise that Obama’s approval rating is on the rise, now back to 50 percent, with Obama leading all the Republican candidates both nationally and in the many key battleground states.

Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Politics, Polls, Rick Santorum, Social Issues. Tags: , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Rick Santorum Becomes Eleventh Candidate To Lead GOP In Polls With Mitt Romney Severely Facing Problems

February 11, 2012 — Ron Chusid

Although the conventional wisdom has been that Mitt Romney is the probable Republican nominee, he is certainly having a hard time establishing himself as a front runner. Before today’s poll came out, Nate Silver listed ten previous front-runners  in alphabetical order, including some Republicans who led in the polls without being a declared candidate: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Today, Public Policy Polling makes Rick Santorum the eleventh. Santorum leads at 38 percent. Romney trails at 23 percent, with Gingrich at 17 percent and Ron Paul at 13 percent.

Rick Santorum does even better if he does not have to divide he conservative vote with Newt Gingrich. If Gingrich were to drop out, the poll shows that 58 percent of his supporters would go to Santorum. In a such a three way race, Santorum get to 50 percent, while Romney would be at 28 percent and Paul at 15 percent.

Leadership in the GOP race has not meant very much to date, but falling behind at this stage does create problems for Romney. He might go negative against Santorum as he did against Gingrich, but his negative ads are starting to backfire. Some suggest that instead of going negative against Santorum, Romney must convert to a positive campaign. I’m not sure how a man who lacks any core beliefs or convictions can do this.  His strongest pitch is that he can make up the biggest lies about Barack Obama.

The Maine caucuses conclude tonight with a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. There is speculation that Paul might be able to pull an upset victory. If you cannot beat a crackpot like Ron Paul, it is hard to see victory for the nomination as inevitable.

There’s another potential embarrassment for Romney. Public Policy Polling is also seeing the start of a surge for Santorum in Michigan. A loss in Michigan would be devastating to Romney, both for losing his home state and because of reinforcing Santorum’s dominance over Romney in the Midwest. Perhaps Romney will try to flip-flop on having been born and raised in Michigan. Would Mitt Romney’s birth certificate then become an issue?

CPAC is also conducting their straw poll. To paraphrase Jay Leno, Romney is promising to change his views to whatever views CPAC members desire. Romney pandered before them, claiming to be “severely conservative.” The word severe might sound out of place here, unless you see it as an honest admission from Romney, such as “I am severely insane” or, at very least, “I am severely out of touch with the voters of this country.”

Posted in Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Michigan News, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Politics, Polls, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin. Tags: , , , , , . 2 Comments »

Santorum Moving Up In Sinking Ship

February 8, 2012 — Ron Chusid

The big question of the day is how Mitt Romney could possibly have lost three contests last night (Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri) after receiving the endorsement of Donald Trump? As Trump took the credit for Romney winning in Nevada after receiving his endorsement, is there any chance that Trump would accept the blame for Romney’s loses yesterday. So far, no such concession, but Trump is talking about a cabinet position in a Romney administration (which should scare away some more potential votes) and does raise a valid point about  Santorum:

Rick Santorum was a sitting senator who in re-election lost by 19 points, to my knowledge the most in the history of this country for a sitting senator to lose by 19 points. It’s unheard of. Then he goes out and says oh ‘okay’ I just lost by the biggest margin in history and now I’m going to run for president. Tell me, how does that work? … That’s like me saying I just failed a test. Now I’m going to apply for admission to the Wharton School of Finance. Okay? He just failed a test…. And now he’s going to run for president. So, I don’t get Rick Santorum. I don’t get that whole thing.

Despite this, Santorum has an outside chance at the Republican nomination because of the degree of dislike for Romney by conservative Republicans and the lack of a viable alternative. Compared to Newt Gingrich, Santorum looks like an acceptable choice to GOP leaders. (Ron Paul remains irrelevant towards the actual nomination even though he will probably pick up a number of delegates, especially in the caucus states). I’m not all surprised that Santorum is emerging as the non-Romney candidate outside of the south. He is the best shot for the big-government conservative movement which remains obsessed with imposing their archaic religious views upon the entire country.

Beyond the Santorum hat trick, the other news out of last night’s contests is that turn out remains low in a contested battle for the nomination to oppose  a president who many conservatives continue to think is a black foreign-born Muslim socialist who hangs out with terrorists. (Only the first part of that characterization is accurate, but that is enough to get many Republicans to want to defeat him). Public Policy Polling found that “58% of Democrats were ‘very excited’ about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats ‘very excited’ and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets near.” The poll also found that “The percentage of Tea Party voters ‘very excited’ about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.” Perhaps many will remain home in November if the Republicans do not nominate a candidate they find acceptable, while appealing to the Tea Party will lead to further loses among independent and moderate voters. (One caution on this poll is that the poll was conducted for Daily Kos. There is no evidence that this affects the results, but I always feel uneasy about whether pollsters might attempt to please those paying the bill.)

Other recent polls have also been favorable for the Democrats. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama with a clear lead over Romney nationally for the first time. The trend favors Obama as “By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him.” Results in battleground states matter more in the electoral college than national polls but as Obama’s support improves nationally, it is also likely to improve in battleground states. The latest Quinnepiac poll shows Obama leading Romney 47 to 43 percent in Virginia. Democrats are also taking the lead in generic polls over preferred control of Congress.

It is still a long way until November and the polls can still change many times between now and then. Unpredictable events can also have a major influence on the election. There is, however, one predicable series of events which will help Obama. Nobody will be able to wrap up the Republican nomination soon, and the more the GOP candidates campaign against each other, the more the approval for all the Republican candidates declines.

Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Politics, Polls, Rick Perry, Ron Paul. Tags: , , , , , , . 5 Comments »

Obama Up, Republicans Down In Latest Poll

January 24, 2012 — Ron Chusid

Leading into tonight’s State of the Union Address, Barack Obama’s approval is improving while the approval of his Republican rivals is falling:

Fifty-three percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll express a favorable opinion of Obama overall, up by 5 points from last month to the most since April 2010. It can matter: Favorability is the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity.

Obama may be benefitting from a less-grim economic outlook, but also by comparison to the Republicans, deep in their intramural food fight. As he’s gained, Romney has stumbled badly, with unfavorable views of the recent Republican front-runner up by 15 points in just two weeks.

Forty-nine percent of Americans now see Romney unfavorably, a new high in ABC/Post polling this cycle. That far outstrips his favorable rating, 31 percent, down 8 points to a new low. The shift, moreover, has been led by political independents, swing voters in national politics.

While that reflects a remarkable reversal of fortune for Romney, Gingrich, too, has lost ground, dropping 6 points in favorability since December — and with more than half of Americans, 51 percent, now seeing him unfavorably, up from the low 40s last fall. While it would be speculation to link the slip in favorability to recent criticisms by his ex-wife, his decline occurred among married adults.

Imagine how much more unpopular the Republican candidates could be if their nomination battle extends into June.

Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Politics, Polls. Tags: , , , . No Comments »

Republicans Have The Weakest Final Four Ever

January 23, 2012 — Ron Chusid

The Republicans are down to the final four, but it is possible none of them can win. After losing in South Carolina, Romney is now trailing in Florida in several polls. Romney is helped by the fact early voters made up thirty percent of the vote before the South Carolina primary. As many of these votes were cast during the week leading up to the South Carolina primary when Gingrich was surging, Romney did not necessarily do all that well even in that vote.

After the South Carolina primary I heard a number of predictions that Romney would still win, citing past primary battles where conservatives opposed a front runner who ultimately prevailed. This year might be different. Between the liberal social issues he supported in the past, his promotion of a health care plan similar to Obama’s, and his rejection of Reagan when he was in office, there is plenty for Republicans to never forgive. Romney’s religion further reduces his ability to win in a party where bigotry is common.

On top of these problems, Romney has now lost his two major selling points–inevitability and electability. Losing in Florida would put an end to any claims of inevitability. The attacks on his years at Bain Capital and his mishandling of the calls to release his income tax returns cast serious doubts as to whether Romney is competitive in a national election. His offers to release a single return from 2010 only raises further questions as to what he has to hide. His tax shelters in the Cayman Islands and speculation that many years he paid far closer to zero percent than the fifteen percent he claims, make him a weak candidate in a year in which many voters from both parties are fed up with Wall Street. It also doesn’t make it easy for Romney to run against Obama after his repeated admissions that the economy is getting better under Obama, even if he tries to deny Obama the credit.

Newt Gingrich did well in South Carolina, but his victory speech showed what a weak candidate he would make once his claims are challenged. His attacks on the elites raise the question as to who is an elite if Newt Gingrich isn’t.  I would love to see some reporters challenge Gingrich to name exactly what Obama has done which is so radical. At least Gingrich has now added Saul Alinsky’s name to the list of items to use in Republican drinking games. Never mind that Obama was eleven when Alinsky died.

At the moment it looks like we have a two way race between Gingrich and Romney, but it is possible that Santorum might win over more of the conservative vote outside of the south. He might start receiving large contributions from the shirt-hanger manufacturers. There is a danger for Santorum that Gingrich will get so much momentum out of wins in South Carolina and Florida that Santorum will be forgotten. Still, if I was Santorum, I would stay in the race as it is possible that Gingrich could self-destruct at any time. Delegates might also be split four ways with Ron Paul also having a shot of picking up a handful, possibly preventing anyone from winning enough delegates to win before the convection. In such a case, I can easily see Santorum throwing his delegates (if he accumulates enough) to whichever candidate would add him to their ticket. It would be interesting to see if the Republicans could still maintain the myth that they are a party of small government with a Gingrich-Santorum ticket.

Posted in Barack Obama, Economy, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Politics, Polls, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Social Issues. Tags: , , , , , , . 3 Comments »
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