Occupy Wall Street Unnecessarily Limits Their Potential Support

Republicans have done much better than Democrats at framing their arguments and choosing the right words to maximize their support–regardless of whether conservative frames provide an honest look at the issues. Some on the  left have tried to counter with the Occupy Wall Street movement and claims of supporting 99% versus the 1%. The movement has had success in drawing attention to their issues, and changing policy discussion away from what was increasingly a discussion of what spending to cut regardless of the merits. However, I have feared from the start that concentrating on words involving occupation would limit their potential success.

The Republicans generally embrace many of the extreme groups on the right (with some realizing that the know-nothing attitude of the Tea Party movement could lead to disaster). Roll Call shows that  Democrats have qualms about getting too close to the Occupy Wall Street movement:

While Democrats are adopting the movement’s “99 percent” language, they are increasingly retreating from the protesters themselves and their anti-capitalist rhetoric. Some in the party view the Occupy activists — camped out in grubby tent cities around the country — as a potential liability in 2012.

Some of this could be attributed to the traditional reluctance of many Democrats to stick their necks out in support of principle, and many of those critical of OWS come from the more moderate and conservative wings of the party. However such concerns extended to more progressive Democrats:

Even the liberal Members of Congress originally scheduled to meet with the Occupiers were careful to separate the public face of the protesters and the concerns that spawned them.

“I think that there is a distinction that needs to be made between embracing Occupiers and embracing the issues and the struggle that they have brought to the forefront of the national agenda,” said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus,  in a statement to Roll Call. “Anyone who thinks it’s a mistake to embrace these issues is not prepared to win in 2012. … The worst thing Democrats can do is pretend they don’t exist.”

Stressing how their policies are to protect  “99 percent” is definitely preferable to stressing occupation. The movement needs to concentrate on the issues as opposed to the strategy of occupation. I also think that “income inequality” is not the right term to use. There always will be, and should be, differences in earning based upon skills and achievement. Many hearing of protests against income inequality misunderstand it to believe the movement, and liberals, oppose such appropriate levels of inequality. It only feeds into the ridiculous view on the right that liberals such as Obama are socialists. Reading the conservative blogs shows the degree of misunderstanding of the issue, with many conservatives finding it to be some sort of contradiction when affluent liberals, and not just the unemployed, show concern over the concentration of wealth by the ultra-wealthy.

The real issue is the considerable increase in income concentration in the top 1 percent (and top one tenth of one percent) in recent years,  which has been exacerbated by government policy. Inequality may or may not be acceptable depending upon the specifics, but it is this degree of concentration of the wealth of this nation by a tiny plutocracy which is not. Other points which should be stressed are the decrease in upward mobility and the weakening of the middle class.

Americans typically have no problem with the wealthy, hoping to have the chance to join them. Stressing income inequality does not appeal to many of them. Stressing the fact that it is now harder for those in the middle class to become wealthy than in the past would be a far more compelling argument. Weakening the middle class means that middle class individuals have a far greater chance of winding up among the poor than the wealthy is an important wake-up call about the direction this country is moving in. Ultimately the weakening of the middle class is even harmful to the top 1 percent–a reason why many wealthy individuals have come out in recent weeks to support Democratic policies. They know that the tiny increases in marginal tax rates being proposed will not harm them, and certainly will not reduce job creation.

Obama Administration Afraid To Fight Right Wing On Plan B

The Obama administration appears to be afraid to risk right wing wrath by allowing Plan B to become more easily available as recommended by the FDA. Although more choices for contraception would reduce teen pregnancies, leading to both reductions in abortions and the number of people winding up on welfare, Republicans have threatened a major backlash if the FDA’s recommendations were allowed.

Once again we see that the right wing’s agenda goes far beyond restricting abortion and that it is right wing attitudes, not ObamaCare, which results in the government interfering with medical decisions. We also see the limits to which Democrats will stand up to the Republicans. While perhaps avoiding this fight might be of some short-term political benefit, by being so quick to compromise the Democrats fail to provide a clear alternative to the authoritarian right, limiting their potential support.

Quote of the Day

“Congress will have a Secret Santa exchange involving both parties. The Democrats will give Republicans a gift. And that’s it.” –Seth Meyers

Occupy Wall Street At A Cross Roads

The forced clearing of Zuccotti Park this week represents a turning point for the Occupy Wall Street movement–one which possibly could be to its advantage. So far Occupy Wall Street has one significant achievement–turning discussion from which government program to cut next to an examination of how the system is rigged to transfer wealth from the middle class to the top one percent. Unlike the Tea Party movement, they show far more understanding of the issues they are discussing. These are important issues to bring to the nation’s attention considering the degree to which the unprecedented level of income inequality, along with the factually incorrect misconceptions upon which conservative economic policies are based, have caused our economy and country to stagnate in recent years.

The question has been where Occupy Wall Street would go from here. It has always been at risk of fading from attention, between a natural diminishing of interest over time and cold winter weather forcing many to return home. If the the movement was based upon a permanent occupation of Zucotti Park and other areas, it would soon become old news, assuming that it would never increase in size to the point where it would become appear even more meaningful. Zucotti Park would never become Tahrir Square in Cairo.

Now that they are being forced out of their around-the-clock encampments, OCS supporters have an important decision to make. They could become either the start of a new progressive movement in this nation, or a brief protest which loses its significance. They could center their activity upon fighting to maintain the protests in their current form, but this would be a Pyrrhic victory even if it could be achieved. Such a victory would do little to  promote the more serious economic message behind the group. This would play into the hands of the dishonest propagandists for the authoritarian right from Fox and talk radio who would be able to exaggerate every episode of misconduct conducted by people in the area who have nothing to do with the actual movement, resulting in a further decline in their support. I wouldn’t be surprised to see end of year “news” summaries at Fox next month claiming that Occupy Wall Street supporters had spent the year molesting children in the showers at Penn State.

I hope that Occupy Wall Street decides to concentrate on promoting their economic message as opposed to fighting to continue their occupations. At this point intermittent political rallies and other events are likely to receive more media coverage than a permanent “occupation” which gradually dwindles in size over the winter. While OCS is quite distinct from the Democratic Party, I have seen multiple interviews in which supporters did acknowledge that the Democrats are far preferable to the Republicans on economic issues. As we face a tough race next year to prevent government control by supporters of the no-nothing polices of the far right, OCS members might devote some energy to getting out the vote, even if they feel compelled to hold their noses when voting Democratic. Perhaps they could even influence some Democratic primaries, as long as they don’t do this to nominate unelectable extremists as the Tea Party has done.

I also wouldn’t mind if they concentrated more on names such as the 99 percent rather than Occupy Wall Street should the occupations no longer become the centerpiece of the movement. Both the concentrating on occupying a location and the concentration on Wall Street alone distract from their central issue of how an unprecedented level of income inequality has been harmful to the nation, leading us to a position where we can no longer afford many basic government services and promoting of a 21st century infrastructure which would promote greater economic development.

Approval Of Obama Drops, But Voters Still Prefer His Policies Over Republican Policies–Will That Save Us From A President Worse Than Bush?

Republicans are encouraged by headlines, such as at Bloomberg, that Obama Approval Plummets to New Low Among Americans Skeptical of Jobs Plan. This is discouraging news, but I also wouldn’t have expected one speech to bring about an immediate turn-around for Obama. On the other hand, Republicans need to be cautious as their support in the polls has dropped even more than that of Obama. Several polls have findings similar to the CNN polls showing Americans trust Obama more than the Republicans on the economy.

As people are frustrated with both Democrats and Republicans over the state of the economy, 2012 could be a bad year for incumbents. However polls of positions supported by voters often do not correlate well with actual election results, as voters have frequently voted Republican while supporting Democratic policies. Last night’s special elections in New York and Nevada showed that 2011 is still an awful lot like 2010. Democrats have over a year to turn things around, benefited by factors such as that the facts are on their side, and the opposing side is supporting extremist ideas which Americans do not support. Unfortunately, ever since their victories in 2008 Democrats have been losing the messaging wars–badly. If the Democrats do not do a better job of showing what they stand for and why voters must reject the Republicans, I fear that in 2012 many voters in Democratic areas will vote against the incumbent, while  voters in Republican districts will vote against Obama and his party.

It would be disastrous if a party which opposes Medicare and Social Security while supporting theocracy and further transfer of wealth to the ultra-wealthy controls the government. Unless Democrats do a better job of winning the spin wars over the next fourteen months, this very well can happen. Further Republican appointees to the Supreme Court can tip the balance away from individual liberty for years to come.

Obama’s major accomplishments, such as reforming health care so that people cannot be denied coverage for preexisting conditions, and keeping us out of a depression with the first stimulus, have been turned from political selling points to negatives for the Democrats. Far too many voters believe a fictional account of what Republicans believe as well as a fictional account of Democratic policies which is spread by the right wing noise machine. When the Democrats do not do an adequate job of defining themselves and their policies, they make it easy for the Republicans to do it instead. Obama shares part of this blame, but this has been a problem with the Democratic Party which existed before Obama was even in the Senate. Responding to this by turning on Obama only increases the chances of Rick Perry taking office in 2013 with both Houses of Congress under Republican control.

The left was far more united when George Bush was in office, as it was far easier to agree on opposing Bush’s destructive policies than it is for the wide variety of individuals on the left to agree as to what should be done.  The one thing we should all agree on is that we cannot have another era of Republican control, which is likely to be even worse than the Bush years. Differences in opinion with Obama, often exaggerated by the limitations upon what he can accomplish, are trivial compared to what a Perry government would do. There is a small number on the left who manage to do incredible mental gymnastics and twist the facts to claim Obama is worse than Bush. Hopefully they will wake up to reality before 2012 or we might really see  the harm that  a president who is worse than Bush can do to the country.

Democrats Take Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans have been slipping in the polls since their mishandling of the debt ceiling debate (here and here) and now a poll shows that this could translate into losses in the House. A new Gallup poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 51 percent to 44 percent in the generic Congressional ballot.

This is hardly enough to predict that the Democrats will retake the House. Momentum can, and probably will, shift more times between now and the 2012 election. Republicans might withstand these numbers due to controlling the redistricting process. Having Democrats more concentrated in urban areas makes it easier to make a smaller number of districts which have huge Democratic majorities, so even if Democrats win over half the popular vote they could wind up with less than half of the Congressional seats. (This is exaggerated even more in the Senate where sparsely populated Republican states receive the same number of Senators as in heavily populated Democratic states).

Democrats will probably need to expand this lead in the generic ballot to repeat their successes in 2006 and 2008:

… the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles — each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections, with individual polls showing them ahead by as much as 23 points.

Democrats have a better chance to win if they can highlight both the fiscal irresponsibility of the GOP along with Republican votes which would destroy the Medicare program. The best chance for Democrats will be if the Tea Party remains active, as another recent Gallup poll shows antipathy towards the Tea Party growing. Running more Tea Party candidates could weaken the Republicans, and even being associated with the Tea Party could be damaging to Republicans outside of extremely far right areas.

Support For Republicans And Tea Party Falling After Debt Ceiling Debate

Over the past couple of weeks the Republicans, and the incredibly clueless members of the Tea Party movement which are dominating the party, have brought the United States close to defaulting  upon the debt that George Bush and the Republicans are primarily responsible for running up.  Their irresponsible actions have led to the downgrading of the United States by Standard and Poor’s and a major drop in the stock market (which fortunately showed signs of recovery today).  The Tea Party has reached new levels of irresponsibility, first in desiring that the United States default, and secondly in immediately blaming Democrats for the consequences of their actions after the downgrading.

It does not look like the right wingers are fooling very many people. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey showed that the result of the debate over the debt ceiling was a fall in support for the Republicans:

The debt ceiling debate hurt Americans’ view of Republicans, bolstered their opinion of Democrats, and drove the tea party’s favorable ratings to a new low, a poll on Tuesday found.

Just 33 percent of Americans approve of the Republican Party, while 59 percent disapprove in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday. That’s a net negative 10-percentage-point shift from less than a month ago, when 41 percent of those surveyed by CNN said they had a favorable view of the GOP while 55 percent had an unfavorable one.

At the same time, Democrats’ numbers have improved slightly, with approval and disapproval each at 47 percent. In July, 45 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved, a net 4-point positive change.

The tea party movement fares slightly worse than the GOP and has its most dismal ratings since CNN began asking about the movement in polls in January 2010. Thirty-one percent said they see it favorably while 51 percent see it unfavorably. In July, those numbers were 37 percent and 47 percent, respectively.

Of those surveyed, just 41 percent say they think the House member in their district should be reelected — the lowest ever — while 49 percent said the member does not deserve another term. A year ago, 52 percent supported reelection of their representatives while 42 percent opposed it.

The last time the Republicans polled so unfavorably in this survey was in 1998 after the House voted to impeach Bill Clinton.

Pew Research Center Looks At Political Views Beyond Conventional Labels

I’ve often noted the problems with labels such as liberals versus conservatives, often lumping together people who do not agree on a number of issues while sometimes dividing those who do agree. My views have never fit in entirely with any group, but in recent years when it came down to liberals versus conservatives it has been a simple matter of siding with those who are not bat-shit crazy. Besides, liberalism contains a wide variety of views; in recent years including most who oppose the agenda of the theocratic, authoritarian right.  A Pew Research Center survey went beyond simple divisions of liberal versus conservative and party identification to break people down into a number of groups. Based upon this, it looks like I might have to rename the blog Post Modern Values. Of course a major characteristic of us post modern people is that we are very liberal on social issues. A few different answers on questions where I was forced to choose from two views which didn’t really capture my opinion could have also made me a Solid Liberal.  Regardless, we are on the same side on many of the major political issues. Post moderns are  the independents who overwhelmingly support Barack Obama. Unfortunately many post moderns (but not me) sat out in 2010.

The 2012 election might come down to whether Democratic-leaning independents turn out for the Democrats in 2012 as we did in 2008. On the one hand, many independents are increasingly turned off by the conservative views of Republicans on social issues. Just today, after seeing Barack Obama wage a war on terrorism, we are seeing House Republicans wage a war on women. On the other hand, another independent group, libertarians, is far more supportive of Republicans today than in 2008. As is far too often the case, libertarians tend to fall for Republican rhetoric on the economy (regardless of the realities) and are willing to compromise on matters such as social issues and actual freedom.

While the look at independents was most interesting, the survey also broke down supporters of each party by type. The views of Republicans were fairly predictable, regardless of type. For example, 90 percent of  Staunch Conservatives say that religion is an important part of their life. The Main Street Republicans  do not differ on this, with 91 percent answering the same way. Staunch Conservatives also include most of the Tea Party supporters. Knowing how conservative positions are frequently based upon beliefs which are counter to fact, it was no surprise to read that, “More Staunch Conservatives regularly watch Fox News than regularly watch CNN, MSNBC and the nightly network news broadcasts combined.”

Republicans Vote To Eliminate Medicare

Congressional Republicans voted to eliminate the Medicare program as part of their budget proposal.  While their lack of support for Medicare has been raised in political campaigns before, now it is official. If Democratic politicians cannot take advantage of this vote to build new majorities in Congress for years to come they are the most incompetent politicians in the history of the world.

Democrats appear prepared to use this issue. Barack Obama pledged to block any plan which turns Medicare into a voucher plan in his budget speech earlier this week. DCCC chair Steve Israel predicted, “When we win back the majority, people will look back at this vote as a defining one that secured the majority for Democrats.”

While the measure would technically destroy Medicare for those ten years away from now qualifying for the programs, seniors currently on Medicare should also be concerned about the effects of this plan. If those under 55 did not expect to ultimately benefit from going on Medicare, political support for the program would erode and it is hard to imagine funding continuing. A voucher program would not be able to provide health care insurance which adequately covers the needs of seniors. Health insurance companies already do a terrible job of covering those over forty on the individual market in their efforts to avoid covering people who actually need health care coverage. The insurance companies do not want to cover people with pre-existing conditions, and this applies to a very high percentage of those on Medicare. The one exception where private insurance companies have insured the Medicare population has been Medicare Advantage plans, but many companies have already left this market after the subsidies to care for these patients were reduced. It currently costs about twelve percent more to cover people under private Medicare Advantage plans than in the government plan, showing how the private insurance industry is a poor alternative to the Medicare program.

The Ryan budget should be enough to cost the Republicans control of Congress for years to come if the Democrats are at all competent in using the issue. Things could have been even worse for the Republicans. An even more extreme budget which nobody expected to pass was also brought to a vote today. Democrats started to vote present instead of no so that it might pass with Republican votes, leaving Republicans to defend measures which would be even more unpopular. Republicans caught on and several voted no to kill this measure in favor of the Ryan budget.

Question of the Day

What’s more amazing–that the Republicans went to the brink and nearly shut down the federal government over Planned Parenthood or that the Democrats did not back down on this?