Democrats Take Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans have been slipping in the polls since their mishandling of the debt ceiling debate (here and here) and now a poll shows that this could translate into losses in the House. A new Gallup poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 51 percent to 44 percent in the generic Congressional ballot.

This is hardly enough to predict that the Democrats will retake the House. Momentum can, and probably will, shift more times between now and the 2012 election. Republicans might withstand these numbers due to controlling the redistricting process. Having Democrats more concentrated in urban areas makes it easier to make a smaller number of districts which have huge Democratic majorities, so even if Democrats win over half the popular vote they could wind up with less than half of the Congressional seats. (This is exaggerated even more in the Senate where sparsely populated Republican states receive the same number of Senators as in heavily populated Democratic states).

Democrats will probably need to expand this lead in the generic ballot to repeat their successes in 2006 and 2008:

… the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles — each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections, with individual polls showing them ahead by as much as 23 points.

Democrats have a better chance to win if they can highlight both the fiscal irresponsibility of the GOP along with Republican votes which would destroy the Medicare program. The best chance for Democrats will be if the Tea Party remains active, as another recent Gallup poll shows antipathy towards the Tea Party growing. Running more Tea Party candidates could weaken the Republicans, and even being associated with the Tea Party could be damaging to Republicans outside of extremely far right areas.

Voters Have Increasingly Negative View Of Influence Of Tea Party On Congress

With the tea party and other right wing Republicans leading us on a path towards potential financial doom, including precipitating the recent downgrading of the nation’s credit rating, the question remains as to how this will play with the voters. The Republican strategy is essentially to use their power in Congress to wreck the economy as much as possible in the  hopes they can blame this on the incumbent president.

The poll cited in the previous post is an early indicator that the tea party strategy is failing. Another poll conducted by the Washington Post and Pew Research Center also shows decreased support for the tea party among Democrats and independents:

When the 112th Congress started in January, more Americans anticipated a positive rather than negative role for the newly elected members affiliated with the tea party political movement. Now, a new Washington Post-Pew Research Center poll finds public opinion tilted the other way.

In the new poll, 29 percent say congressional representatives associated with the tea party have had a “mostly negative” effect, 11 percentage points higher than the number expecting a negative impact at the beginning of the term. Now, 22 percent see a “mostly positive” effect, down five points.

Still, as anticipated in January, about half of all Americans say the tea party supporters in Congress have either had “not much of an effect” or expressed no opinion.

The see-saw in public opinion on tea party-affiliated members is particularly apparent among Democrats and independents. In January, 30 percent of Democrats and 14 percent of independents said tea party members would have a mostly negative effect; those numbers have jumped to 49 and 28 percent, respectively.

Republicans, by contrast, are little shifted since the beginning of the year. By more than 4 to 1 Republicans see tea party members as having a more positive than negative effect.

Quote of the Day

“The debt deal calls for the formation of a ‘super Congress’ to take on tougher decisions down the road. In case you’re wondering, a super Congress consists of six congressmen from each party, plus Wolverine.” –Conan O’Brien

Quote of The Day

BREAKING: Round-the-Clock Congressional Sessions Bad for Business, Say Prostitutes –Andy Borowitz

Republicans Vote To Eliminate Medicare

Congressional Republicans voted to eliminate the Medicare program as part of their budget proposal.  While their lack of support for Medicare has been raised in political campaigns before, now it is official. If Democratic politicians cannot take advantage of this vote to build new majorities in Congress for years to come they are the most incompetent politicians in the history of the world.

Democrats appear prepared to use this issue. Barack Obama pledged to block any plan which turns Medicare into a voucher plan in his budget speech earlier this week. DCCC chair Steve Israel predicted, “When we win back the majority, people will look back at this vote as a defining one that secured the majority for Democrats.”

While the measure would technically destroy Medicare for those ten years away from now qualifying for the programs, seniors currently on Medicare should also be concerned about the effects of this plan. If those under 55 did not expect to ultimately benefit from going on Medicare, political support for the program would erode and it is hard to imagine funding continuing. A voucher program would not be able to provide health care insurance which adequately covers the needs of seniors. Health insurance companies already do a terrible job of covering those over forty on the individual market in their efforts to avoid covering people who actually need health care coverage. The insurance companies do not want to cover people with pre-existing conditions, and this applies to a very high percentage of those on Medicare. The one exception where private insurance companies have insured the Medicare population has been Medicare Advantage plans, but many companies have already left this market after the subsidies to care for these patients were reduced. It currently costs about twelve percent more to cover people under private Medicare Advantage plans than in the government plan, showing how the private insurance industry is a poor alternative to the Medicare program.

The Ryan budget should be enough to cost the Republicans control of Congress for years to come if the Democrats are at all competent in using the issue. Things could have been even worse for the Republicans. An even more extreme budget which nobody expected to pass was also brought to a vote today. Democrats started to vote present instead of no so that it might pass with Republican votes, leaving Republicans to defend measures which would be even more unpopular. Republicans caught on and several voted no to kill this measure in favor of the Ryan budget.

Quote of the Day

“The Senate has sent President Obama a spending bill that gives the government enough money to keep going for two weeks. Our Congress has the financial planning skills of a college sophomore.” –Conan O’Brien

The New York Times Points Out The Failure Of Democrats–And Not Only The Former Speaker

The New York Times believes that the Democrats need a new minority leader in the House:

Ms. Pelosi announced on Friday that she would seek the post of House minority leader. That job is not a good match for her abilities in maneuvering legislation and trading votes, since Democrats will no longer be passing bills in the House. What they need is what Ms. Pelosi has been unable to provide: a clear and convincing voice to help Americans understand that Democratic policies are not bankrupting the country, advancing socialism or destroying freedom.

All true, but not only of Nancy Pelosi. The Democratic Party as a whole has been suffering from an inability to articulate its views and give voters reason to stick with them once the limited memories of the voters have forgotten George Bush. When Democrats fail to explain their views, they allow the Republicans to define them, and Republicans have become very good at presenting distorted views of what Democrats believe. Hell, if Democrats really believed half the things which is claimed by Fox and right wing talk radio I certainly wouldn’t vote for them.

The Democrats saved the country from a depression but failed to get the credit. Democrats saved the auto industry and saw Michigan turn into a red state. Democrats gave the country a major tax cut, but tea party supporters march in the street believing that Obama raised their taxes. Democrats passed a health care plan which takes many ideas from the Republican Party of the 1990′s, freeing individuals from the whims of the insurance industry, and Republicans managed to fool voters into believing this was a government take over of health care. Meanwhile seniors voted Republican, supporting a party with policies which would seriously harm Medicare, believing distorted claims that the Democrats were cutting Medicare (as opposed to cutting George Bush’s subsidies to insurance companies handling Medicare Part D plans).

Democrats must find a way to counter the Republican misinformation. That’s all Democrats–not only Nancy Pelosi.

Of course correcting the problem is not only a matter of explaining how Democrats support freedom and a market economy (as opposed to Republican policies of concentrating wealth in the hands of a small minority). Democrats must do a better job of debunking the false Republican frames, such as showing that the “small government” supported by conservatives intrudes far more upon the lives of individuals than the government supported by Democrats. Democrats must also be consistent in their policies. Obama should have stuck to his campaign position and opposed the individual mandate. Dealing with the free-rider problem would be more complex without a mandate, but it could be done. Backing down and accepting an individual mandate only helps fuel conservative memes about Democrats. Democrats further complicated this with their naive belief that voters who opposed health care reform when it passed would change their minds by this fall.

Little legislation is likely to be passed this year. Democratic leaders (regardless of whether this includes Nancy Pelosi) should devote this time to figuring out exactly what they stand for and explaining this to voters. Obama has often said the right thing, but his actual explanations of policy get lost among all the shouting. Democrats need to work harder to amplify his actual positions in order for them to be heard above the right wing noise machine.

Some of the pundits analyzing the midterm elections described how the Republicans had a successful two-year strategy to return to power. Actually the strategy has been in play for far longer. The right wing noise machine has developed a false narrative about what Republicans and Democrats believe which enabled them to regain much of their lost support. Fortunately long term demographics continue to work against a party which rejects science and reason, and which acts contrary to the long term trend for greater individual liberty in this country. Democrats can speed up the process by better explaining how they really differ from Republicans.

Coburn: GOP Should Repeatedly Offer Bills To Repeal Health Care Reform

This might be a preview of GOP plans after the election, especially if they gain control of Congress:

Senate Republicans should repeatedly offer bills to repeal health reform even if it’s in vain, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) said Tuesday.

Coburn acknowledged efforts to repeal the legislation, or even defund it, were unlikely to be successful as long as President Obama is in the White House, but said making repeated efforts to dismantle the legislation is the best political strategy for the GOP.

“I think the best strategy is to call for a repeal bill and pass that bill,” Coburn told a group of conservative bloggers. “And if you can’t pass it the first time, then offer it again the next month, and offer it again the next month.”

To a certain degree it makes sense to push legislation which might not pass to clearly demonstrate what a political party desires to accomplish. When they repeatedly push the same exact legislation this becomes a waste of time. If the Republicans were serious about policy they would offer bills to improve upon the bill which already passed. Of course if they had any real interest in doing this there are many compromises they could have easily obtained during the fight to pass the measure.

Republicans might have a stronger argument for doing dwelling on repeal if it was politically popular but polls have consistently showed that the public wants to retain most of what is in the bill once they realize what is actually in the law. In addition, while the final bill isn’t all that popular, as many people are upset because health care reform didn’t go far enough as those who believe it went too far.

Colburn’s suggestion does not provide much confidence in the results of a Republican controlled Congress, especially following  Mitch McConnell’s admission that the top goal of Republicans is to improve their chances for taking the White House in 2012, as opposed to doing something constructive such as trying to improve the economy.

Democrats Up or Down, Depending Upon The Poll

More polls are conclusively showing only one thing–polls taken far in advance of an election are of little value (probably as most voters have not even given the election all that much thought). First there’s the polls on this year’s off year Congressional elections. Public Policy Polling finds that Barack Obama’s approval has hit a new low (as Obama continues to follow Ronald Reagan’s trajectory in the polls). The conventional wisdom is that off year elections are a referendum on the recently elected president. For this we’d expect that the Democrats would be falling behind the Republicans in the generic Congressional election. Instead the two are at a 43 percent tie.

Making matters even less clear. Gallup found that the Democrats have shot up to a six point lead over the Republicans in the generic poll. Perhaps some voters are starting to remember exactly why they voted against the Republicans in 2006 and 2008. No matter how bad the economy is, it makes no sense to vote for the party which caused this mess.

Yesterday, probably before these results were available, Nate Silver made some predictions based upon the finding that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting at present than Democrats are. Nate looked at the odds of the Republicans taking control of the Senate:

Our latest Senate simulation has the chamber convening in 2011 with an average of 53.4 Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), 46.1 Republicans, and 0.5 Charlie Crists. This is an improvement for Republicans from our last forecast three weeks ago, which had 55.2 Democrats, 44.2 Republicans, and 0.6 Crists. The changes, however, predominantly reflect several methodological improvements we have made rather than any particular national momentum, although the dynamics of some individual contests are certainly evolving.

The model gives Republicans a 17 percent chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6 percent three weeks ago. If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 12 percent. However, the model does not account for the contingency that someone like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson could decide to switch parties, which makes their chances slightly better than we suggest here.

If the polls are inconclusive regarding the 2010 elections, polling on the 2012 election is even less clear.  For example, a recent PPP poll found Sarah Palin tied at 46 percent with Obama in a hypothetical 2012 match up. However a  Time Magazine Poll shows Obama leading Palin by 21 points, 55 percent to 34 percent. In other words, the polls show either a tie or landslide which might exceed Lyndon Johnson’s victory over Barry Goldwater.

AARP Joins Physician Groups In Blasting Congress For Inaction On Medicare Payment Fix

The failure of Congress to act on the Medicare “doc fix” has led to protests from medical organizations and the American Association of Retired People who have pointed out the harm this will do to the Medicare program and people dependent upon Medicare for their health care. The American Academy of Family Practitioners has called on Congress to stop harming patients and do their job. The American College of Physicians has blasted Congress for causing “Irreparable damage to Medicare” as seniors and military families face loss of access to health care. AARP sent the following letter to every member of Congress urging action on Medicare, warning that their inaction “threatens access to physician services for millions of Medicare beneficiaries.”

On behalf of millions of AARP members, I urge you to immediately pass legislation that ensures seniors have access to their physicians, and provides much needed fiscal relief to the states and to unemployed individuals.

Regrettably, given Congress’s failure to reach timely agreement on a Medicare physician pay package, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has now been forced to implement a draconian 21.3 percent reduction in their reimbursements.  This cut threatens access to physician services for millions of Medicare beneficiaries – especially those living in rural and other underserved areas.

While Congress continues to debate temporary patchwork solutions, people on Medicare are growing increasingly anxious about whether they will be able to find a doctor when they need one.  Seniors, who have paid into Medicare their entire working lives, deserve the peace of mind of knowing they will be able to find a doctor who will treat them.

AARP urges Congress to act immediately to stabilize doctor reimbursement rates for as long as possible until a permanent solution can be found.   For nearly a decade, Medicare patients and the doctors who treat them have been held hostage by short-term patches to an unworkable Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula.  In the months to come, we look forward to working with Members of Congress from both sides of the aisle to repeal the SGR formula and replace it with a permanent physician payment system for Medicare that rewards value and ends the uncertainty for patients and providers alike.

In addition, enhanced Medicaid funding to states to assist them with the added costs of providing health coverage to low income individuals and for home and community based services must be extended.

Finally, we urge the extension of unemployment benefits for those unable to find jobs during this economic downturn.

AARP members are counting on you to address these critical issues immediately to protect their health and economic security.

Congress Plays Chicken With Medicare

Medical blogs have been protesting the failure of Congress to resolve this problem. For example, Dr. Rob warns that Congress is playing “a great big game of chicken.”

  • The house is playing chicken with the senate.
  • The Democrats are playing chicken with the Republicans.
  • They aren’t in the cars themselves, we are.  Doctors and patients are careening toward destruction in the name of political gamesmanship.

Surely they will flinch.  Surely someone will understand the consequences of the crash.  But you know what?  Sometimes each side expects the others will be the ones who flinch.  Sometimes nobody flinches.  Sometimes the cars crash and people are killed.

There are two potential ways to resolve this deadlock. The quickest would be for Nancy Pelosi to go along with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Rep. Robert Andrews (D-N.J.), the Chair of the Education and Labor health panel, and allow the House to vote on the temporary fix passed in the Senate last week.

Nancy Pelosi has been insisting on a different course by attaching the Medicare “doc fix” to other unrelated legislation. The Senate is attempting to pass legislation which includes some of Pelosi’s goals, but it is questionable if the Senate could pass such legislation without watering it down to the point where Pelosi would not find it acceptable.

For Nancy Pelosi to be the one who, at present, is blocking passage of this legislation might be political suicide for the Democrats, risking turning over control of Congress to the Republicans in November. The Democrats are already on shaky ground with seniors. As Ezra Klein pointed out earlier today, health care reform has become more popular since passage–except with seniors. The Democrats cannot afford to further alienate the senior vote, which tends to turn out more heavily in off year elections than the younger voters who are more likely to stick with the Democrats.