“Congratulations once again to the world champion New York Giants. They played a great game. Eli Manning now has two rings. Two! But that’s still one less ring than Newt Gingrich.” –Jay Leno
“Congratulations once again to the world champion New York Giants. They played a great game. Eli Manning now has two rings. Two! But that’s still one less ring than Newt Gingrich.” –Jay Leno
In quick follow-up of yesterday’s look at the Republican nomination battle, Mitt Romney did the minimum necessary to win yesterday’s events, but not in a very convincing manner. Both many commentators and Rick Santorum have attributed Romney’s win at CPAC to busing in large numbers of college students on from the east coast, analogous to how Ron Paul won the past two years. Today Santorum is outright accusing Romney of rigging the vote:
Romney beat Santorum by 7 points Saturday in a straw poll of almost 3,500 attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Santorum pointed out that Ron Paul had won the poll in both of the past two years “because he just trucks in a lot of people pays for their ticket, they come in and vote and then leave.”
“I don’t try to rig straw polls,” Santorum said on CNN’s State of the Union.
Paul actually came in last on Saturday, having declined to address the conference or to activate his base for the straw poll. But Santorum said that wasn’t the case with Romney.
“You have to talk to the Romney campaign and how many tickets they bought,” Santorum said. “We’ve heard all sorts of things.”
Romney won with 38 percent, followed by Santorum at 31 percent, Gingrich at 15 percent and Ron Paul at 12 percent. It is notable that the combined voted received by Santorum and Gingrich significantly exceeds that received by Romney. I believe that if Newt Gingrich were to leave the race, Rick Santorum would be the most likely winner. On the other hand, polls show that Santorum supporters are more mixed in their second place choices, probably due to Newt Gingrich’s past, and Romney would remain the front runner if Gingrich dropped out.
Romney also won in Maine, but only by three points over Ron Paul, the only other candidate to actively campaign in the state. Only beating a crackpot such as Ron Paul by three percent is hardly very impressive. This might be partially be because the major Republican candidates have seen no point in devoting any effort to campaigning against Paul, hoping to keep some of his supporters in the party. They know that any concentrated effort to bring up Paul’s negatives would easily knock him back into the single digits should he ever become a real threat.
Although the conventional wisdom has been that Mitt Romney is the probable Republican nominee, he is certainly having a hard time establishing himself as a front runner. Before today’s poll came out, Nate Silver listed ten previous front-runners in alphabetical order, including some Republicans who led in the polls without being a declared candidate: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Today, Public Policy Polling makes Rick Santorum the eleventh. Santorum leads at 38 percent. Romney trails at 23 percent, with Gingrich at 17 percent and Ron Paul at 13 percent.
Rick Santorum does even better if he does not have to divide he conservative vote with Newt Gingrich. If Gingrich were to drop out, the poll shows that 58 percent of his supporters would go to Santorum. In a such a three way race, Santorum get to 50 percent, while Romney would be at 28 percent and Paul at 15 percent.
Leadership in the GOP race has not meant very much to date, but falling behind at this stage does create problems for Romney. He might go negative against Santorum as he did against Gingrich, but his negative ads are starting to backfire. Some suggest that instead of going negative against Santorum, Romney must convert to a positive campaign. I’m not sure how a man who lacks any core beliefs or convictions can do this. His strongest pitch is that he can make up the biggest lies about Barack Obama.
The Maine caucuses conclude tonight with a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. There is speculation that Paul might be able to pull an upset victory. If you cannot beat a crackpot like Ron Paul, it is hard to see victory for the nomination as inevitable.
There’s another potential embarrassment for Romney. Public Policy Polling is also seeing the start of a surge for Santorum in Michigan. A loss in Michigan would be devastating to Romney, both for losing his home state and because of reinforcing Santorum’s dominance over Romney in the Midwest. Perhaps Romney will try to flip-flop on having been born and raised in Michigan. Would Mitt Romney’s birth certificate then become an issue?
CPAC is also conducting their straw poll. To paraphrase Jay Leno, Romney is promising to change his views to whatever views CPAC members desire. Romney pandered before them, claiming to be “severely conservative.” The word severe might sound out of place here, unless you see it as an honest admission from Romney, such as “I am severely insane” or, at very least, “I am severely out of touch with the voters of this country.”
“Newt Gingrich has criticized ‘New York elites’ who ride the subway. One of those subway elites threw up on my pants this morning.” –David Letterman
With Letterman repeatedly mocking Gingrich for his view of New York elites, background information and more serious commentary can be found here.
“Mitt didn’t just beat Newt Gingrich, he stomped him by a devastating 14 percent margin. Fourteen percent! That is higher than Mitt’s tax rate.” –Stephen Colbert about the Florida primary.
Newt Gingrich talks of being a historian, but like most conservative “thought leaders,” he tends to get most of his facts wrong. Responding to Gingrich’s statements often seems a waste of time because, beside the repulsive moral code he promotes, he bases his arguments on premises which are out of touch with reality. Besides, it is questionable as to how long he will remain a meaningful candidate.
Ben Adler has a theory that Gingrich gets his facts wrong because, “Gingrich still seems to live in the last decade that he was relevant: the 1990s.” This theory works for Ben’s current post. I bet that he wouldn’t argue with my belief that, while this might be somewhat accurate in the example Ben discussed, there are also many other statements from Gingrich which have never been true, at least in our reality. Maybe there is some alternative universe out there in which Gingrich sometimes gets history right.
I have never lived in New York, but simply taking occasional trips there and following the reality-based media which Gingrich seems to avoid, it was clear that Gingrich’s latest attack on Manhattan elites was factually wrong. Ben Adler explained:
On Friday he reiterated his hatred of people who live a more environmentally efficient lifestyle. Speaking in Las Vegas ahead of the Nevada caucus, a contest he is sure to lose, Gingrich attacked “elites” in Manhattan who live in high rises and “ride the subway.”
This is the perfect distillation of Gingrichism on many levels. First it shows the stupidity and ignorance of a man Republicans praise for his intelligence and knowledge. Riding the subway is much cheaper than owning, maintaining and driving a car. The truly rich in New York take cabs, car services or drive more often than the poor. Not everyone in Manhattan, or in a high-rise, is an elite: Gingrich has apparently never ventured north of 96th Street and seen who lives in the high-rise projects in Harlem.
Gingrich still seems to live in the last decade that he was relevant: the 1990s. Back then his despised media elites mostly lived in Manhattan. (Of the ones who live in the city. Plenty of them live in the suburbs and it’s unclear whether Gingrich thinks that makes them real Americans.)
Now, journalists and other underpaid urban professionals increasingly live in Brooklyn and Queens, but Gingrich’s demagoguery is behind the times. It’s also outdated because the reason writers have been largely pushed out of Manhattan is the influx of ever-wealthier bankers, the sort of people Gingrich says we should worship as job creators. It’s time for Gingrich to start loving Manhattan instead of hating it. Then again, some of the financiers work for private equity firms, and since Gingrich is running against a private equity executive, he has decided that those capitalists are inherently different and worse than all others.
Check out the full post for Adler’s suggestions as to future elites which Gingrich might attack.
How about elite disgraced former members of Congress who are backed by wealthy benefactors enabling them to run for president? With all his attacks on elites, Gingrich is an elite even if not elite (or sane) enough to ever get elected president.
Gingrich has scheduled a press conference for tonight, after the Nevada caucus which he is expected to lose. This has led to speculation that he might be withdrawing from the race. Following his threats to remain in the race until the end, I doubt this is the case unless his contributions are drying up. Perhaps this is a means of getting more coverage for attacks on Romney and an attempt to remain relevant until we reach southern primaries which might be more hospitable towards Gingrich. On the other hand, maybe we shouldn’t pay much attention to his past statements that he plans to remain in the race. Sticking to commitments has never been Gingrich’s strong point.
Donald Trump is making a major announcement on Thursday and reportedly will endorse Newt Gingrich.
First Herman Cain endorsed Gingrich and now Trump. This should lock up the bat-shit crazy vote for Gingrich, which is the major portion of the Republican vote.
Trump has also been talking about running as a third party candidate again. Most likely this was to receive more publicity but perhaps he might use a loss by his candidate as reason to run.
Update: CNN is now reporting that Donald Trump will be endorsing Romney and not Gingrich per reports yesterday. I think we need to wait for the actual announcement to know for certain what he is doing.
The polls just closed in Florida and the media is already projecting that Mitt Romney will be the winner. This comes as no surprise today as the polls showed Romney with a lead, but immediately after the South Carolina primary this outcome was briefly in doubt. Since then Republican leaders have gone nuclear against Gingrich and Romney benefited from better debate performances.
Florida has violated the Republican Party rule that winner take all contests cannot occur until April, and Romney will take all fifty delegates, pending the inevitable challenge should Gingrich remain competitive. Gingrich does say he will remain in the race until the end, and he appears angry enough with Romney to possibly do so.
It now appears increasingly unlikely that Romney can be stopped despite the opposition of many conservatives. There just is not a viable candidate in the race to oppose him. It is too late for another candidate to enter the race and win as many filing deadlines have passed, but theoretically another candidate could enter and pick up enough delegates to keep anyone from winning a majority, leaving the decision to the convention. It is difficult, but not impossible, to envision scenarios which could still deny Romney the honor of losing to Barack Obama this fall.
Romney leading but having Gingrich remain in the race might be the best possible outcome following the Florida primary. As it is theoretically possible for the nominee of any major political party to wind up winning, we certainly do not want Gingrich to be the nominee. Gingrich is welcome to spend the next several months exposing all of Romney’s faults and continue to damage his image.
Juan Williams exposes the racism in the GOP campaign at The Hill:
The language of GOP racial politics is heavy on euphemisms that allow the speaker to deny any responsibility for the racial content of his message. The code words in this game are “entitlement society” — as used by Mitt Romney — and “poor work ethic” and “food stamp president” — as used by Newt Gingrich. References to a lack of respect for the “Founding Fathers” and the “Constitution” also make certain ears perk up by demonizing anyone supposedly threatening core “old-fashioned American values.”
The code also extends to attacks on legal immigrants, always carefully lumped in with illegal immigrants, as people seeking “amnesty” and taking jobs from Americans…
The former Speaker has declared that black people should demand jobs instead of food stamps. And he has proposed having poor students work as janitors in their high schools. Regardless of how they were intended, poor people and minorities sense that with those comments Gingrich is winking — some call it “dog whistling” — at certain white audiences by intimating that black people are lazy, happy to live off the government and lacking any intellect.
With comments like this, I wonder how long Williams will remain at Fox. Apparently exposure to ideas at NPR has made a difference. Getting outside of the right wing bubble from time to time might do wonders for other conservatives.
I’ll undoubtedly receive a response from a Republican insisting that he is not racist because he will claim that it is true that blacks are just interested in food stamps and immigrants take American jobs. I’ve certainly received a lot of defenses of Ron Paul’s racist newsletters based upon such logic. The Republican leadership provides a form of legitimacy to such prejudices.
“Mitt Romney is going to release 2010 and 2011 tax returns. Not to be outdone, Newt Gingrich is going to release his 1988, 1994, and 2005 wedding vows.” –Conan O’Brien
“Tonight was the CNN primary debate with the four remaining candidates. It was kind of a change for Newt Gingrich. Usually when he’s arguing with three people at once, it’s his wife, his ex-wife, and his mistress.” –Jay Leno