I never thought it was very likely that the superdelegates would bring about a result different from the decision of the voters. Superdelegates certainly have the prerogative to vote for whoever they desire. An individual superdelegate can vote their conscience and vote for a candidate other than the national winner and different from the winner in their state or district. While some individuals will do so, as a group the superdelegates are followers. Enough of them realize that it would be disastrous to over rule the voters and will prevent this from happening.
Clinton started out with a strong lead among superdelegates, dating back to the time when her nomination (and election) were considered to be inevitable. Since Super Tuesday Obama has been picking up the vast majority of superdelegates. This includes superdelegates from the ranks of the uncommitted and even some defectors from Clinton. I’m not aware of any going in the opposite direction.
Obama already has a lead over Clinton among elected superdelegates, with Clinton having more party insiders backing her. We are now at the point where it might be only a matter of days before Obama takes the lead among all superdelegates. Clinton’s lead is down to 8.5 superdelegates. Soon Obama will have the majority, and very well might have enough total delegates to clinch the nomination by May 20, when he expects to have a majority of elected delegates (going by the DNC’s magic number, not the Clinton imaginary magic number). Politico has a good listing of where the supedelegate race stands.
A couple of points. This has been made elsewhere but I think it’s a valid thought. She can continue to fundraise and, in effect, pay herself back for all the loans she made. If she drops out now, she can only claim some of the money back. I would be interested in seeing what her spending is like right now. How many ads (and related $) are being run right now, things like that.
Also, if roles were reversed, the dem party would have tossed him out on his a$$ long ago. Once he reached the point where he lost 14 primaries (pretty much in a row) the party would have told him to go (probably long before 14, to be honest), but Clinton? Like the Eveready bunny…keeps going, and going, and going. If she were not a Clinton, she’d have been forced out long, long ago.