Andrew Sullivan doesn’t think Rudy Giuliani has a chance:
Giuliani is running as a secular, modern conservative to run what has become a religious, theological party. His fate is going to be a fascinating insight into what American conservatism can now mean. And the Christianists are not going to put up with secular, inclusive, reality-based conservatism.
The Economist disagrees, noting that McCain (who is hardly a liberal or even a moderate) and Giuliani dominate every poll. I could see scenarios win which Giuliani wins, but citing polls this long before an election has little predictive value. Ask Howard Dean about that, or go back and look at these numbers. If Giuliani can convince enough Republicans that he can win the election, that he is the man to fight terrorism, and that he will appoint conservative judges, he could still win in a race where several social conservatives split the vote. However to do so will still mean overcoming the opposition from the theological wing of the party which has more power in the primaries than is seen in these poll results.
If Bush can get elected, even Giuliani has a chance. His past is very questionable, but it seems that the media doesn’t care about the cronyism of his office and how he humiliated his second wife.