Comments on: Obama Doing Well in Early Red State Polls

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 21:56:51 +0000

Short of a total collapse for McCain it is hard to see the Democrats winning Texas.

By: Michael

Michael — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 21:38:11 +0000

I wonder about big states like Texas. Will McCain actually get their vote? I saw huge lines for the Democrats during the primaries.

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 15:29:10 +0000

It is hard to say how much of an impact this has on polling results.

Back in 2004 before the Iowa caucus I recall supporters of Howard Dean arguing that the polls underestimated the results because of this. It turned out that he did even worse than predicted. Similarly there were many Ron Paul supporters claiming he would be more competitive than the polls indicated due to his support from the young.

There is one reason to believe that this factor might be more significant than in the past. In many previous elections the young might have supported a certain candidate when polled but they didn't turn out to vote in high numbers. In the primaries Obama did do well in actually getting them to vote.

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 15:21:19 +0000

I am curious. Being that there are so many younger voters coming into the fray, what are the true polling results? Many of these “new’ voters only have cell phones and are not captured in the polling at all.

Comments?

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 19:52:42 +0000

Ben,

Maybe. There are a few southern states which might flip. Even if they don't, they could get close enough to force McCain to devote time and money in them.

By: Ben Love

Ben Love — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 19:31:51 +0000

Is farfetched to think that a high African-American turnout in the south could result in a blue state or two?

By: Bruce Becker

Bruce Becker — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 14:35:26 +0000

We still have not seen the impact of the fundamentalists, once the right wing gets them whipped up about the civil rights of non-heterosexuals.
We still have not seen the impact of the citizens, once they comprehend that Obama wants to give us all back our civil rights, including habeas corpus, and what will McCain make of the terrorists getting habeas corpus, scaring the soccer moms to give up their children’s freedom.
To bad the Dem’s didnt have McClellans book as a playbook before 2006. We could have had a campaign based on impeachment. Neither Pelosi nor Reid seem to have any courage, or a sense of their oath of office.
My prediction is that we will have our last two party presidential election this year. The left has been abandoned by cowards and the conservatives have been abandoned. If it were not for the venom people feel about Nader handing the presidency to Bush from the last one, I would guess that the Green party could be the one to drive the stake in the heart of the pretense of two party system in this country. When Nader finally retires, maybe someone with vim and vigor can make the Green party the true leader of the disenfranchised and the 10’s of millions who never even register.