Comments on: Obama Catching Up in National Polls

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 18:17:07 +0000

It could. Fortunately Kennedy helps the most with the portions of the Democratic vote where Obama has been weakest compared to Clinton. Plus Edwards is down to around 12% in the polls. Even if a majority still breaks for Clinton this wouldn’t be insurmountable. With Obama’s recent momentum the Edwards supporters might wind up going more for Obama than I would have previously predicted. If Edwards supporters only go 7% to Clinton and 5% to Obama we are only talking two percent more for Obama to make up, which can be done. Of course the Edwards support varies by state, and the direction they are likely to go can also vary by state.

By: Christopher

Christopher — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 17:40:43 +0000

You have a point about Hillary’s appeal.

Maybe the endorsement of Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy will reverse some of this? I sure hope so.

By: Deb Di Gregorio

Deb Di Gregorio — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 17:36:39 +0000

OK. I’m educated. I’m leaning heavily towards Hillary. BUT I’d like to see her jump on her steed with lasso twirling, loop BILL by the ankle, tie him up and roll him off the rodeo circuit. How refreshing that would be!

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 16:59:02 +0000

I fear the chattering class is right here with regards to most voters. I expect Obama to do better among bloggers and more educated Democrats, but Clinton to pick up a larger share of the downscale Democratic vote.

By: Christopher

Christopher — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 16:50:37 +0000

And the other thing is, the chattering class is claiming Edwards departure helps Hillary.

I say, not so fast.

Obama is the second choice for many on the left who supported Edwards. Hillary, is how many Democrats second choice? Not many.

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 15:12:56 +0000

Of course not. The number show where things were in the past, not the future. With Obama already showing momentum there is plenty of hope that he will continue to move up. While there is a limit to what a surrogate can do, Kennedy helps more than most in attracting the types of Democratic voters where Obama has been the weakest compared to Clinton. Kennedy’s endorsement also helps reduce the argument that Clinton is the more qualified candiate.

By: Christopher

Christopher — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 14:40:11 +0000

These numbers (I’ve reported them too) don’t take into consideration the powerful impact of having Sen. Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy campaign for Obama in California this coming weekend.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:21:54 +0000

Maybe I’m trying too hard to find significance where there is none, but it looks like prior to Jan 20th Clinton and Edwards were moving in opposite directions. Edwards went from 17 to 11 and Clinton gained 37 to 47. Then Clinton fell to 42 and Edwards gained to 15 (while Obama stayed at a constant 32-35 the whole time). In other words Edwards and Clinton supporters were trading sides. But since then, the relationship has disappeared while Obama has been steadily gaining. And especially note the last two data points – Edwards dropped a few points, but instead of Clinton picking them up, she actually dropped as well, with Obama gaining some points. Again, probably too much analysis for unreliable polls, but still interesting. And definitely reason for optimism.

By: rawdawgbuffalo

rawdawgbuffalo — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:25:43 +0000

I think Edwards droppin out may have one of thre outcomes. hook, line and sinker”.