Comments on: Ron Paul Flubs Appearance on The View

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 14:14:50 +0000

Polls this far out before a primary don’t mean much as there’s still a tremendous number of people who haven’t made up their minds. Plus if Paul beats expectations in Iowa he could do better in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is Paul’s best shot. At this point it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul totally bombs there or (more likely) that he significantly exceeds his standing in the polls. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does manage to pull ahead of one of the top tier candidates, especially if a lot of independents cross over to vote for him. Of course even a first place finish in New Hampshire still wouldn’t be enough to allow him to win the nomination. If it came to it, the Republicans would manage to unite behind a more establishment candidate to keep Paul from getting the nomination.

By: Eric Dondero

Eric Dondero — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 13:59:44 +0000

Note, Paul has actually dropped in a couple statewides today. Not by much, but down 1 or 2 points, including New Hampshire.

By: Ron Chusid

Ron Chusid — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:38:06 +0000

It will be quite interesting to see how Paul does in the caucus and primary votes. Now that he has more money, and we see how he is willing to hide his views when campaigning (such as in the letter to vets noted in another post) it is possible he might move a bit over 5%. Caucus votes and primaries come down to organization and dedication of supporters and it is possible that he will totally collapse or possible that he will get well above 5%. Obviously he can’t do well enough to actually be competitive.

Another wild card is independent and cross over votes where that is illegal. If one candidate comes out of Iowa looking like a sure winner, lots of people will see no point in voting in the Democratic primaries and might vote for Paul as a protest against the war. In Michigan most of the Democrats aren’t even on the ballot and it is easy to cross over so it would be a good early state for Paul supporters to inflate their numbers.

By: Eric Dondero

Eric Dondero — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 15:10:58 +0000

Been paying close attention the RCP running average. What’s amazing, Paul’s support has held steady for 3 weeks now at 4.7%. Neither up, nor down. The other 5 are all over the place: Rudy down, Huck up, McCain up slightly, Fred way down, and Romney all over the place.

But Paul is stuck at 4.7%

This suggests to me that he has a solid base of hardcore commited support, but can’t nudge past that. I think 4.7% is all we’re ever likely to see out of Paul.

He’ll do well in New Hampshire. Somewhat well in South Carolina. After that, he’s toast.

In Florida his polling numbers have been stuck at 3%. California similar.

His shelf life is limited.

By: Vote for Hillary

Vote for Hillary — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 07:59:27 +0000

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