Tracking Poll Today Gives Trump Lead Over Clinton

Hillary Down

Yesterday I noted a report that Democrats were “freaked out” over Hillary Clinton’s decline in the polls. Today’s news looked potentially worse this morning with the headline in The Los Angles Times: As Clinton stumbles, Trump takes an apparent slim lead in new tracking poll. The polls showed Trump leading by three points, with the poll having a three point margin of error. The key question on this poll and others showing a decrease in Clinton’s support:

What isn’t known is whether the new surveys are capturing Clinton at a low that will prove temporary, as voters react to Comey’s criticism and the renewed attention to her use of a private email server, or whether they reflect a more lasting shift that could hobble the presumed Democratic nominee for the remainder of the campaign.

NBC News has released additional battleground state polls which are more favorable to Clinton than those reported yesterday. Both candidates are unpopular in these states, with Trump being slightly more unpopular. Also of interest is that they polled with Jill Stein and Gary Johnson included. The addition of the Green Party and Libertarian Party candidates did not change the outcome in these states.

It will also be interesting to see what type of convention bounce each candidate gets. Politics By The Numbers looked at bounces and found that, while candidates generally get a bounce, there has not been a good correlation between the size of the bounce and the eventual winner.

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10 Comments

  1. 1
    Judy says:

    The Democratics better pull shillary outof the race or we're going to lose the Whitehouse.  The Democratics NEED to immediately address the fact that Bernie Sanders gets the nomination or it'sover. Progressives are NOT voting for shillary! !! #DemExit

  2. 2
    Ilene Cook says:

    15 million are pledged to leave the Democratic Party is they insist on nominating Hillary. We know they cheated the vote. The lawsuits are piling up. They know we know they cheated the vote. And now a key witness to their vote cheating is murdered with no witnesses. They have done a lot of criminal activity to put Hillary in the White House but when more then half of the Democrats hate her, they are playing with fire. They think they can make us play along but you are going to witness the end of the Democratic party if they nominate her.

  3. 3
    Pamela Showets says:

    Endorse Bernie Sanders Now!!!

  4. 4
    Theresa Stafford says:

    There is no way in HELL I will ever vote for Hildamort or the troll doll. Bernie Sanders is clearly the stronger candidate. We all know for a fact that Hildamort stole the votes from him. All of the election fraud was just blatant! Bernie should have won the primaries, he SHOULD be the nominee! If the DNC doesn't pull their heads out of the asses they will get a Trump presidency and I don't feel a damn bit sorry for them. 

  5. 5
    Cluricaune says:

    America can  withstand four years of bigotry and Hate. The nation cannot withstand another 4 years of corporate self-interest; that's what Hilary represents. I'm voting Trump if Bernie isn't nominated. 

  6. 6
    Marge Berkeyheiser says:

    The Democrats have fair warning this is what lies ahead if they do not nominate Bernie Sanders. Demexit is short for democratic exit if Bernie is not nominated after the convention there will be a mass exit from the crooked democratic party. Where are all these people that supposedly voted for Hillary? How many more millions of votes did she have than Bernie? I just don't understand how her numbers could be falling faster than the temperatures on a freezing February night. When you cheat, flip votes, disenfranchise voters, remove voters from polls, make it harder for voters to vote, in the end it has a way of turning around and biting you. You do not get rewarded for cheating and it shows up in the numbers. Your only hope of saving the Democratic Election is to nominate Bernie Sanders, and it may be the only way to save the party from itself. Once we are gone from the rolls don't expect us back, it doesn't work that way and we will work to get you out of office.  

  7. 7
    Ron Chusid says:

    “Where are all these people that supposedly voted for Hillary?”

    Keep in mind that a primary in which hard core partisan Democrats are voting is a totally different population than the general voting public. Clinton does well with partisan Democrats, but poorly with independents (including independents who generally vote Democratic).

  8. 8
    Patrick Shannon says:

    The Democratic Party can only unify behind Senator Sanders, and by doing so could bring in the Green and Libertarian Parties as well.

     

    Or not.

     

  9. 9
    doris trueheart says:

    I am upset with the democratic platform. I do not support TPP which gives power to corporations over the government. I do not support fracking and offshore drilling which poison our water. Fracking has already caused an earthquake off the coast of Florida. I do not support the concept of selling water rights to corporations and allowing them to deplete groundwater and lower water levels beneath everyone's property and concentrates poisions. Our sustainability as a nation requires that we protect our water. California, who supplies 1/4 of our food supply is undergoing a drought that is likely tyo endure. America will be hard pressed fir food and water which will lead to outbursts of violence as people strive to survive. The elite are building bunkers and storing supplies. They are aware of where we are headed if we not take action now, and only they have the means to attempt to protect themselves.  I do not support open borders. We must take care of Americans. We cannot support the elite and corporations that do not pay taxes. American Corporations should pay taxes on foreign expenses, a tax to operate outside of America. The banks must be broken and not allowed to speculate with our savings. Regulations that protected America from falling into Depression need to be restored. We need to reduce our military spending and reduce are gifts to foreign governments and invest in the infrastructure of America. We must enforce and upgrade our electrical grid, moving people off the grid to provide multiple sources of power. We must replace the lead pipes that carry water to our citizens. We must repair our roads and bridges and update our railway system. We must provide psychiatric treatment for our law enforcement officers and veterans who face violence or have faced violence on a daily basis. I support equal justice for all and not privilege above the law. We must remove medicare prescription drug benefits, since they have never been balanced with a means to pay for them. We should reduce Congressional retirement benefits and make them prorated by years of service. We should remove non profit status from non profits that spend more than 50% of their revenue on salaries, fundraising and advertisement, rather that charitable expenses. We should remove tax exclusion for churches. We should decriminalize mariquana and make use of hemp and all of its benefits. We should release prisoners held for mariquana possession. We should not permit for-profit prisoners. We should abolish slavery in America, including those incarcerated. We should restore voting rights to those who have served their prison terms. We should eliminate tax credits. I am opposed to wars for profit and the upheaval of other governments. I want an investigation into 9/11 and a review of Bush's recovered emails. I want war criminals prosecuted. I want values and a code of conduct restored in America.

  10. 10
    doris trueheart says:

    I support clearly labeling of GMO products. I do not support modified seeds that kills bees. I am against the spread of glycophates and other poisons in our agriculture system, which end up poisoning our groundwater. I support the breakup of oligopolies, similarly to monopolies, especially the breakup of the media. I support the improvement of our educational system to produce people ready to meet our labor needs or provide innovative solutions to meet our nation's needs, and entrepreneurship. I support a circular economy, not the trickle down economy that is plugged by the hoarding wealthy. I am against the sale or misuse of our national land to corporations. The democratic platform does not address my concerns.

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