Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Down To Three Percent While Sanders Leads By Eleven

Trump Clinton

For the last few months it appeared that it might not matter how unpopular Hillary Clinton is in terms of a general election victory as at least she could beat Donald Trump. There are three major flaws in this viewpoint. The first is that even if Clinton could win the general election, having her as president is quite undesirable. The second is that it is far from certain that Trump will win the nomination considering how hard the Republicans are trying to prevent a first ballot victory, freeing delegates to support another candidate. Clinton has not been polling well against potential candidates other than Trump. Thirdly, Clinton’s lead over Trump is evaporating.

The GW Battleground poll shows Clinton only beating Trump by three points (within the margin of error), while Sanders beats him by 11. The poll also shows that 46 percent say they would consider voting for Clinton while 53 percent say they would not consider voting for her in the general election. In comparison, 51 percent say they would consider voting for Sanders and 47 percent say they would not. Trump’s numbers are also under water here, but the head-to-head battle shows that many who would not consider voting for him would do so if Clinton was his opponent

It is notable that Clinton’s support is already falling while in a primary battle in which Sanders is not even mentioning many of the scandals involving Clinton, which would probably hurt her further in the general election. Plus, with Clinton tying herself so closely to Obama during the primary battle, any bad news on the economy or internationally this fall could seriously hurt her.

Of course before looking ahead too much to the general election, we still need to concentrate on the primary battle. Public Policy Polling shows Sanders narrowing the gap with Clinton in tomorrow’s primaries, but he needs strong victories to reduce Clinton’s delegate lead.

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12 Comments

  1. 1
    Philo Vaihinger says:

    Sanders will not reduce her lead. He would have to beat her to do that, and he will lose in all 5 states. He is simply not the favorite among the voters involved, and especially not among actual Democrats.

    He will not be the nominee.

    Whose side will you be on, Ron?

  2. 2
    Dee Sachetti says:

    Apparently some people do not read the information that has been given them and only know that they think Hillary Clinton is all that the have been fed.   People are learning that she is not that person and they are showing this by the way they are now voting…….Bernie Sanders has every opportunity to win and between Hillary's investigation coming more and more into the picture more and more people are ditching her.

     

  3. 3
    Ron Chusid says:

    I find that a lot of people supporting Clinton are totally unaware of her record. Others are more aware, and defend her for the same policies they criticized Bush for.

    Sanders clearly cannot win a majority of delegates unless something really dramatic happens quickly. However there is the possibility of Clinton continuing to collapse.

    The longer Clinton campaigns, more unpopular she gets (beyond the hard core Democrats who back her).  We could reach a point where Sanders could beat Trump but Clinton couldn't. Then what do the Democrats do?

    I also fear that party insiders would not give the nomination to Sanders either, even if he continues to be the more electable candidate in the general election. If things start to look really bad for Clinton, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of super delegates creating a situation where nobody wins on the first ballot, and then bring in Biden as the nominee.

  4. 4
    Bob Munck says:

    We could reach a point where Sanders could beat Trump but Clinton couldn't. Then what do the Democrats do?

    Probably nothing. By the time we reach that point, Clinton will have been President for a bit over four years. 

  5. 5
    Ron Chusid says:

    Or considering the rate Clinton’s approval is falling, we could possibly reach that point before the convention.

  6. 6
    Anna says:

    Bernie supporter here and voted in the primary.  However, my opinion it's a big mistake when people vote strictly for candidates and not policies. So depending on what policies you stand for – that would be the best place for anyone's vote. If Bernie is out of the run and you stand for Reps vote Trump or for a republican – yikes, that won't be me, though! Some Bernie supporters on this blog declare they will vote Trump out of spite if Bernie isn't chosen for the general election – which is insane. I don't subscribe to that way of thinking. If you side more with Dem (Bernie) policies it's better to vote Hillary. Sanders is looking more and more like the Ralph Nader of the 2016 election.  If Bernie doesn't get the nomination for general and his supporters either stay home, vote third party, or write in his name they could virtually GIVE the election to the GOP candidate. That is what happened in 2000 when young people voted for Ralph Nader as a third party candidate. Bush and Gore virtually tied on electoral votes and Gore won the popular vote but Bush became the President. I hope that Sanders supporters will think carefully about all possible consequences here if Bernie doesn't get nominated for general election in November!

  7. 7
    Bob Munck says:

    Clinton will garner hefty majorities from blacks, women, latinos, and Sanders supporters.  Everybody knows that.

  8. 8
    Philo Vaihinger says:

    Even Bernie knows it's over for Bernie, though he still dreams of writing the platform for Hillary and the entire Democratic Party he has spent weeks vilifying.

    In November it will be Il Duce (Trump) versus Hillary.

    Choose sides!

  9. 9
    Ron Chusid says:

    Bob, Trump has certainly dug himself in a deep hole with many groups, which is why he is the one Republican which Clinton has polled better than.

    However, everyone also knew that Reagan couldn’t get elected, and the Carter people were as ecstatic to run against him as the Clinton camp is to run against Trump.

    Despite all of Trump’s negatives, if this poll isn’t an outlier, he is only three points behind Clinton. Clinton will certainly get large numbers of votes among the groups you mentioned from strong Democratic voters. She will probably win by a huge majority in many of the blue states. However, she polls terribly among independents and in the battle ground states. It is way too early to write off Trump’s chances against a candidate as flawed as Clinton.

  10. 10
    Ron Chusid says:

    Philo,

    I pick the side which is against authoritarian right politicians regardless of party.

    While the Il Duce comparison to Trump is understandable, we must also keep in mind that Clinton is to the right of Trump on foreign policy and comparable to him on civil liberties issues (other than Trump’s other huge negative regarding his use of xenophobia and racism).

  11. 11
    Sharon shelby says:

    love our Bernie..but Hillary getting ready in June to run 90 MILLION dollars of t.v. ads against trump. If trump doesn't get it…$Hillary will DEFINITELY become president!!!..then kiss this country goodbye….a vote for trump can stop this for happening…if no vote at all from Bernie supporters if trump looses because of her CORRUPT system..then SHE WILL become.president!!

    HeHe is NOT against Muslims..Hispanics. are blacks…your. getting misinformation and sound bites

    Only stopping Muslims at border UNTIL their documents are thoroughly  researched…if NOT we will be letting in ISIS ..the RADICAL Muslims to kill our people and country…THINK PEOPLE!!!

    He is NOT Against Blacks..he has MANY onhis team he wants to help change Everything to benefit and make this.country great again…..he was chastised for NATO..but afterwards 100's of officials understood what he was saying and totally agreed…and on and on but no one ever listens to what he's really saying…his words only come from bias media.owned usually by some millionaire..and only to help his causes$$$.

    NOTHING COULD.BE AS BAD AS $HILLERY…she will definitely win with all her illegal delegates and fake promises to women,corruptions..and endless superpacs$$$$..take those millions of votes AWAY from her..are were doomed!!!!if our Bernie doesn't get it!

  12. 12
    Ron Chusid says:

    “He is NOT against Muslims..Hispanics. are blacks…your. getting misinformation and sound bites”

    Sound bites direct from Donald Trump. Actually I believe he is probably not against Muslims, Hispanics, and Blacks and he is playing a role to win the GOP nomination. The problem is that we cannot know this for sure, and even making the statements he has made is reason enough not to want to see him become president.

    I don’t trust Trump on foreign policy, but yes, he is preferable to Clinton’s hawkishness.

    Trump versus Clinton provides too terrible choices.

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