Clinton Might Have Won October, But Sanders Is On Track To Win November

Sanders Aggressive vs. Clinton

The conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton had an extraordinary month in October, with some pundits going as far to claim she virtually wrapped up the nomination. Yet now we are in November and Bernie Sanders has hardly been knocked out of the race. He is even looking like he is on track to win the month of November.

While polls this long before primaries have limited predictive value, they tend to show Sanders gaining slightly on Clinton with no signs of Clinton opening a wider lead over Sanders. Instead of the Biden supporters all falling in line behind Clinton as the pundits predicted, Biden’s support is dividing fairly equally between the two.

Take the latest New York Times/CBS News survey. The spin favors Clinton, but look at the actual numbers. Seeing Sanders close the gap, even if slightly, is a plus for him after all favorable publicity for Clinton in October. The key line, however, is, “Half of Democratic primary voters said it was still too early to say for sure who they would support.” As I have discussed previously, polls before the primaries have little predictive value, largely because so many people do not make up their mind until the last minute. Plus should Sanders hold on to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, polls in subsequent states, as well as the national polls, will change dramatically.

The Clinton camp claims that Sanders cannot win a general election, as they claimed with Obama eight years ago, but the polls certainly contradict them there. Sanders does as well as Clinton or better in head to head match-ups against Republicans, while Clinton struggles to get the support of independents and voters in battle ground states. The latest McClatchy-Marist poll has Sanders beating Trump and Bush by a landslide. The poll also shows that 68 percent believe that what Clinton did related to her private email server was wrong.

While Clinton would have people believe that her success at the Benghazi hearing somehow provides protection against the email scandals, these are two separate issues. It certainly helps her should she ever be prosecuted that the government has backed away from claims that two emails were top secret, but we recently learned that the FBI investigation not only is still going on, but there are news reports that the FBI is stepping up the investigation.

Plus the investigation of alleged mishandling of classified information is only one small part of the scandal. The more important issues are Clinton violating the stricter rules for government transparency which Obama initiated in 2009 in response to the abuses of the Bush administration, and her making decisions on matters as Secretary of State involving parties which were making huge payments to her Foundation and to her husband. It also does not help matters that the fact checkers have demonstrated that Clinton has repeatedly lied about the matter.

The recent charges that Ben Carson has been dishonest about his biography has led to others pointing out that Hillary Clinton has additional honesty issues of her own. Clinton’s claims that she once tried to join the marines is being questioned. It doesn’t help her case that the Washington Post Fact Checker, while noting some ambiguity, has given Clinton Two Pinocchios on this story, along with reminding readers of past problems in her biography such as  “landing under sniper fire in Bosnia or getting the date wrong for hearing a speech by Martin Luther King Jr.”

As the establishment candidate, it is no surprise that Clinton has received more endorsements, although Al Gore has declined to offer his support. Sanders has been receiving some key endorsements, including the American Postal Workers’ Union.

Sanders did well in the Democratic Forum last week, and has another chance to advance his campaign in the second Democratic debate–even if scheduled on a Saturday to minimize viewership. He has been more aggressive in showing the many differences of opinion he has with Clinton on the issues and will probably do the same in the debate (as I have argued he must), as opposed to allowing Clinton to get away with false statements in the first debate and even giving her a lifeline on her email.

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17 Comments

  1. 1
    Anonymous says:

    I will NEVER vote for Hillary.  IMO, she is …..well, lots of things…. a liar, untrustworthy, a follower (not, as she would like us to believe, a person whose thoughts
    "evolve")  she is corp. bought and pd for and will never fight for the people, but will spend a  lifetime paying Wall St., Walmart, Time Warner, CNN…etc etc…. back. IMO, she will have us in another war pretty quickly if elected, she has too much to gain to "lead' anywhere else.  I consider her a Republican and (I repeat)  WILL NOT VOTE FOR HER.

  2. 2
    Anonymous says:

    As to his comment about the email during the first debate, Bernie made it clear immediately afterwards (and maybe during?) that he was addressing the press's premature obsession with the issue, not absolving her of anything. He explicitly stated that the investigation needed to run its course, and that in the meantime the discussion should be on what we know are issues.

     

    This has been spun right out of the current media talking point, which has ignored what he said then in order to perpetuate a false narrative that, by saying just that now, he is going on some kind of offensive – as in being negative. No, as always, he's being consistent.

     

    If you pay a little deeper attention to what's been going on, you might factor in a multimillion dollar advertising push on Clinton's part over the last month (aimed at feeding the 'resurgent' narrative), whereas Ssnders has only just now begun to invest funds in advertising (also for strategic reasons). Her hope was to make it look like he had peaked (and the media, of course, has bought into that), whereas his people were essentially holding their cards long enough to catch up – or go ahead – in terms of funds available to invest.

    it should be interesting to watch – my guess is that 'they' underestimate him, his campaign, and the mood of the electorate.

  3. 3
    EverydayJoe says:

    She is a corporate puppet. Too much donor money for me. I have done my research on Sanders. He touches on the key issues that affect each American's bottom dollar. Corporate welfare ruined the American dream. The free market isn't so free any more and the manipulation of our tax dollars that going to these crooks is unbelievable. This issue alone is enough for me to vote for Bernie. 

  4. 4
    Tom P says:

    Don't vote for Hillary in the general election only if you think you'd be happy with a Republican selecting Ruth Bader Ginsberg's replacement.  If she get the nomination she'll get my vote without hesitation.  Till then I'm basking in the Bern.

  5. 5
    Matt Dukes Jordan says:

    Very encouraging! Thank you. Bernie would be good for America. We need to balance out 35 years of a rising plutocracy that has shifted the entire nation to the point where it's like there are 2 economies — the super-rich in a bubble way up in the clouds and a lot of there people struggling to afford health care, education, even food. Bernie would invest in infrastructure, something the Repugs have been cutting. He would move rapidly toward renewable energy which is good for the economy and for the world's ecosystem — but not for the Kochs (as if they need more money). I wrote a book about Bernie's life and ideas and also how the right wing has gained power since Reagan…. here's a link — http://www.amazon.com/dp/B012BCFJY6  Thanks !

     

  6. 6
    Marcos T says:

    I used to support Hilary or any other democrat, but not anymore. I'm done with these two stupid parties. Regular establishment Democrats are nothing but "Republican light". They don't represent me and as a matter of fact they don't represent 99% of Americans. Bernie is a Democrat but only because he knows no independent can ever win anything. 

  7. 7
    JB says:

    "The latest McClatchy-Marist poll has Clinton beating Trump and Bush by a landslide." I think you mean Bernie beats Trump and Bush by a landslide based on the link you provided.

  8. 8
    Ron Chusid says:

    JB, Yes, thank you, now fixed.

  9. 9
    Mat O'Keefe says:

    One of the factors that all of the polls have wrong is that they are only using "Landline" phone calls.  Most people have cell phones.  When you add in disqualifying requirements such as they have to have voted in the last two elections you no longer have realistic polling data.  That is called push polling to get the results you want.  Then you have to consider the huge number of millenials that are straight up and outright supporting Bernie for president.  Another additional factor is the number of people that have been disenfranchised by politics for years or decades that are coming back into the process to vote for Bernie.  Step across the political aisle and you have many moderate republicans that are supporting or will voter for Bernie because not one of the people running on the GOP side is even remotely talking about the issues that affect them.  Of course there is the facebook factor as well.  Search around on your facebook page and look at all the pages created in support of Bernie Sanders.  There are thousands of them.  Then look at all the posts your politically active friends are sharing in support of Bernie.  Lastly, you have to look at the support of the people that Sanders has.  Financial support for Bernie's campaign is about $30 for the one million plus online donors as compared to Hillary who is maxing out her donors wherever she goes.  Bernie can tap his donors several times and that is the key to a campaign that has longevity.

  10. 10
    Ron Chusid says:

    Mat, these are all things I have discussed in previous posts–and good reasons why Sanders can win.

    Many polls are now using cell phones, but the automated ones are not legally allowed to. The bigger problem these days might be getting people to answer their phones and talk to the pollster.

    Polls also differ in how they determine who is a likley voter. If Sanders gets the people turning out to his rallies and actively backing him on line to vote, he can greatly exceed position in the polls.

    There is certainly a lot of on line interest in Sanders, but that might not mean anything. It could turn out like comparable on line support for Ron Paul and Howard Dean, or it could be signs of a coming upset. What impresses me more is the number of people I see on Facebook and elsewhere who do not normally get heavily into politics who have expressed support for Sanders.

  11. 11
    S Woods says:

    One important thing the polls do not reflect is that Independents and moderate Republicans, as well as Millennials, are not represented. One Monmouth poll only included 7% of 18 to 34 year olds. The Internet speaks a completely different narrative, and I am convinced that the reason Hillary is following Bernie's lead is because she and her pollsters know the reality. 

  12. 12
    Philo Vaihinger says:

    You are still ignoring Hill's rock solid support among blacks and Hispanics.

    That "firewall" is a real problem for Bern.

  13. 13
    Ron Chusid says:

    It is also an opportunity for Sanders to increase his current levels of support as he gets his record out, which is far better than Clinton’s for minorities (along with the rest of the country). An increasing number of minority leaders are starting to back Sanders, which should increase his support in black and Hispanic communities.

  14. 14
    Fred G H Jr. says:

    Bernie Sanders IS our only hope for straightening this mess out!

  15. 15
    flexdoc says:

    Time will tell.

  16. 16
    Anonymous says:

    If you don't want to vote for Hillary, then make sure you vote for Bernie Sanders in your state primaries by going to voteforbernie.org to find out how you can register and vote for him! 

  17. 17
    Victor Tiffany says:

    Bernie will NOT secure the nomination unless 1,000,000+ people take the pledge to write him in if he's not the nominee or Hillary gets indicted.

    Don't count on the latter: take the Bernie or bust pledge and compel the Dems to back Bernie or else lose the general election.

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