Obamacare Enrollment Surpasses Seven Million

The number of people purchasing insurance under the Affordable Care Act has exceeded seven million. This slightly surpasses initial predictions. This also surpasses the reduced prediction of six million made by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of the initial IT problems, (with more expected to sign up in future years) and shows that conservative opponents of Obamacare were wrong in predicting lower numbers.

Millions more purchased health insurance directly from insurance companies. This also does not include the newly insured due to Medicaid expansion or due to students being able to remain on their parents’ policy until age 26. Even when estimates come in including those covered by Medicaid expansion, the number can continue to grow as there is no deadline for signing up for Medicaid. In Michigan the Medicaid program did not even begin taking enrollments until today. There are also some situations in which people can purchase insurance offered through the exchanges after the deadline, such as in case of loss of job or divorce.

There are not yet accurate numbers nationally regarding the number of people signing up who previously had insurance versus those newly insured.

Conservatives are raising questions regarding how many people have not paid premiums and ultimately will not keep this insurance. Estimates on this are premature as coverage for those signing up in late March does not begin until May and premiums will not even be due until mid April.

These numbers are already out of date in light of the surge of people signing up at the last moment, but The Los Angles Times reported on Monday that Obamacare has led to coverage for at least 9.5 million new people:

• At least 6 million people have signed up for health coverage on the new marketplaces, about one-third of whom were previously uninsured.

• A February survey by consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found 27% of new enrollees were previously uninsured, but newer survey data from the nonprofit Rand Corp. and reports from marketplace officials in several states suggest that share increased in March.

• At least 4.5 million previously uninsured adults have signed up for state Medicaid programs, according to Rand’s unpublished survey data, which were shared with The Times. That tracks with estimates from Avalere Health, a consulting firm that is closely following the law’s implementation.

• An additional 3 million young adults have gained coverage in recent years through a provision of the law that enables dependent children to remain on their parents’ health plans until they turn 26, according to national health insurance surveys from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• About 9 million people have bought health plans directly from insurers, instead of using the marketplaces, Rand found. The vast majority of these people were previously insured.

• Fewer than a million people who had health plans in 2013 are now uninsured because their plans were canceled for not meeting new standards set by the law, the Rand survey indicates.

Conservatives have falsely claimed that due to the cancellations of insurance there is a net decrease in the number insured. Most of those who received cancellation notices have received alternative insurance plans, often from the same insurance company. Those who qualify for subsidies are receiving coverage at a lower rate. Everyone who changed from the old plans to new plans on the individual market benefit from changes such as being safe from losing their insurance if they become ill and their insurance company would prefer to stop covering them to save money. The new policies also have annual limits on out of pocket expenses and do not have lifetime caps on coverage as old plans often did.The above data is consistent with Gallup polling showing a decrease in the number of uninsured:

The decrease parallels a similar drop recorded by Gallup, which found in its national polling that the uninsured rate among adults had declined from 18% in the final quarter of last year to 15.9% through the first two months of 2014. Gallup’s overall uninsured rate is lower than Rand’s because it includes seniors on Medicare.

Gallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport said that March polling, which has not been released yet, indicates the uninsured rate has declined further.

“While it is important to be cautious, the logical conclusion is that the law is having an effect,” he said.

Although estimates vary, about 45 million to 48 million people are believed to have been uninsured before the marketplaces opened last year.

The Courier-Journal estimates that about 75 percent of those signing up through the state-run exchange in Kentucky were previously uninsured.

The goal of the ACA was to help cover 48 million Americans, including 640,000 in Kentucky, who lack health insurance.

Although the state set no official first-year goal, its 360,000-plus sign-ups — 75 percent of whom were previously uninsured — represents a sizable chunk.

Although Obama said that the success of enrollments for the Affordable Care Act means “the debate over repealing this law is over,” Republicans are not likely to stop fighting and spreading misinformation. They know that this will help improve Republican turn out this fall. The Koch-financed Americans for Prosperity has put out additional dishonest ads.

Fox, the propaganda organ for the Republican Party, has generally spread their misinformation, including an attempt to distort interpretation of the number of people signing up. Even Fox has not been entirely consistent in backing the Republicans.  On Monday Jenna Lee asked Senator Lindsey Graham why the Republicans have not offered an alternative to the Affordable Care Act despite repeatedly voting to repeal it.

Cross posted at The Moderate Voice

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