This Dog Rides Inside Of Cars

My wife’s goal, beyond seeing Barack Obama win another four years, was to get one of our dogs on the Pet Lovers For Obama Facebook Page. Mission accomplished today.

Fudge is definitely a Democrat. He pisses on Republican campaign signs. (Unfortunately one of our cats does support the guy who puts dogs on the top of cars.)

Quote of the Day: Bill Maher On Mitt Romney’s Flip Flops

“Forget ideology. Mitt Romney is just always wrong about everything. He was wrong about bin Laden…he was wrong about FEMA. He said only a few months ago we should get rid of of FEMA and let private enterprise handle disaster relief. What a great idea. Of course, on Wednesday he released a statement saying no, he loves FEMA now. I tell you, if you think a super storm is bad, if Mitt and anti-Mitt ever met, the universe would implode.” –Bill Maher

Obama Leading In Final Polls

The final polls remain extremely close but there is plenty of reason for optimism among Obama supporters. The Romney campaign is also trying to look optimistic, citing internal polls which vary several points from the nonpartisan ones.

The final national polls show a slim lead for Obama, especially if you follow the usual rule of thumb that Rasmussen will favor Republicans by two points:

ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 50%, Romney 47%

American Research Group: Obama 49%, Romney 49%

Democracy Corps: Obama 49%, Romney 45%

Gallup: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Monmouth: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Public Policy Polling: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 46%

UPI/CVoter: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

I was especially interested to see the Gallup poll after it went on hiatus after Sandy hit. Gallup has found support for Obama to be trailing behind the other polls, and still does by a small margin. Gallup has shown Obama to be trailing as by as much as five points in October. The final poll shows Obama trailing by only one point among likely voters, essentially a tie, suggesting the momentum is on Obama’s side. Obama leads 49% to 46% among all registered voters–showing both the importance of turning out to vote and the potential which Obama has to outperform the polls should his turnout be better than expected.

The final NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Obama leading 47% to 46% but also provides reason to believe that Obama has a better shot than Romney of picking up the voters who are still up for grabs:

The survey found that 9% of the likely voters are up for grabs (meaning they’re undecided or just leaning to a candidate), and these folks have more positive feelings toward Obama than Romney. Obama’s job approval with them is 48% approve, 41% disapprove. What’s more, Obama’s fav/unfav with them is 46%/29%, vs. Romney’s upside down 22%-49%. Bottom line: Our pollsters see more of an opportunity for Obama among these voters and more of an uphill climb for Romney.

These findings do show momentum towards Obama, which is also seen in many of the battleground states. Most polls agree that Obama leads in Ohio, which makes it very difficult for Romney to win unless he can significantly out-perform the polls. Most of the disagreement in predictions comes down to Florida and Virginia, which were leaning towards Obama before the first debate, leaned towards Romney after, and are now too close to call.   Larry Sabato predicts Obama will win with 290 electoral votes with Romney winning in Florida and Virginia. Nate Silver’s model has increased Obama’s chances of winning to 92.2%,predicting Obama will win in Florida and Virginia, returning to where the race was before the Denver debate. Sam Wang is preparing his final predictions, with his site showing Obama with the advantage. The conservative-leaning Real Clear Politics average of polls gives Obama a lead of 0.7%. Their electoral map with toss up state allocated to the candidate who is leading gives Obama 303 electoral votes winning in Virginia but losing Florida. Intrade currently has Obama’s chances of being reelected at 67.4% None of these findings mean anything after the real numbers are in, but Obama certainly is in a better position going into election day. The question is whether this lead is enough to overcome Republican attempts at voter suppression.

SciFi Weekend: An Origin Story and An Ending on Fringe; Jorge Garcia As The Giant; Doctor Who; Star Wars; Mitt Romney & The Zombie Apocalypse

Last week’s episode of Fringe was entitled The Bullet Which Saved The World. This week we found out what is meant by the episode title An Origin Story and have a better idea as to what last week’s title meant. Peter is going to extreme lengths to ensure that the Observers are defeated and that Etta receives credit for the revolution after her death last week. I had questioned the previous explanation given of the Observers having evolved from humans as the time scan was not great enough. Use of a device to provide the powers does seem more plausible, although simply sticking it in one’s neck seems too simple–not that Fringe has ever been very plausible. Now that Peter is receiving Observer powers, will he also begin looking like them? Why do they all look and dress like that, and why aren’t their any females? Fox has also announced that the series finale will be a two hour episode on January 18.

Jorge Garcia of Lost (and Alcatraz) will be playing the Giant on Once Upon A Time. Garcia was interviewed about his role:

Jorge Garcia

So, you’re playing a murderous giant?
They called me murderous? Wow. Okay.

Hey, that’s what the press release said.

Well, I did a looping session for the giant, and it was basically all growls.

But we’ll be seeing you, not just hearing you, right?

It’s me.They CGI most of the set, so I had to work in a studio completely done in green screen and act against little pieces of tape and dowels, but it’s me, you definitely see my face. I don’t look entirely like myself, though; I’m in costume.

Since you’re working against a green screen, I guess that’s to make you look giant-sized?

Yeah. The perspective is different, because they want me to look like I’m six times the size of everyone else.

The creators of “Lost” created the Hurley character just for you. It seems like something similar happened here. 

["Once Upon A Time" creators] Eddie [Kitsis] and Adam [Horowitz], they were always the keepers of the Hurley stories [on "Lost."]. They wrote most of the scripts about Hurley, so for a while we’ve been talking about working together again, and how they wanted to bring me in for “Once.” I wasn’t available last year because I was working on another show, but they pitched the giant story this year and they gave me a little bit of background about his origin, which will be something to do in a later story.

Matt Smith says that the upcoming episode of Doctor Who written by Neil Gaiman will be a separate story from  Gaiman’s previous episode, The Doctor’s Wife, but predicts it will be a fan favorite. Smith is also more open to the idea of a Doctor Who/Sherlock cross over than Steven Moffat is. He discussed cross overs with Walking Dead and Breaking Bad in yet another interview

Years ago, after the first trilogy, the plan for Star Wars to make two additional trilogies, one taking place before and one after the original trilogy.  The third was to take place when the original cast was older. After the disappointing prequel trilogy, the word was that the series was done and the third trilogy would never be made. As I’m sure everyone has heard this week, George Lucas has the rights to Disney, which will be making further Star Wars movies. This  might even include two more trilogies. The upcoming movies are to be centered around Luke Skywalker and others from the original cast, and will be original stories as opposed to being based on Star Wars novels.  George Lucas, who will still play a role in the upcoming movies, has already spoken to Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher about returning to their roles.

Cobie Smulders of How I Met Your Mother will return  as S.H.I.E.L.D agent Maria Hill in Captain America 2.

Joss Whedon explains how Mitt Romney’s policies are conducive to bringing on the Zombie apocalypse in the video above. Romney is “not afraid to face a ravening, grasping horde of subhumans, because that’s how he sees poor people already.”

And yet another endorsement for Mitt Romney above.

Football and Polls Favorable For Obama Victory

The Alabama-LSU game is getting more hype today, but the Oh0 State-Illinois game was far more important for the future of this nation. That is because a correlation has been found between winning football games and how voters feel about voting for the incumbent:

What exactly is it that makes voters reward a challenger or punish an incumbent?  Do they care about the unemployment rate, GDP, or inflation, or is it how those variables are moving? Are voters motivated by position papers or a candidate’s personal history?  Is the electorate responding to slick TV ads or how the candidates performed in the debates?

It may be something else altogether. Recent research has revealed that voter irrationality may be more arbitrary than we think. And in a razor-thin election just enough irrationality can make all the difference. Just how irrational are voters? It is statistically possible that the outcome of a handful of college football games in the right battleground states could determine the race for the White House.

Economists Andrew Healy, Neil Malhotra, and Cecilia Mo make this argument in a fascinating article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. They examined whether the outcomes of college football games on the eve of elections for presidents, senators, and governors affected the choices voters made. They found that a win by the local team, in the week before an election, raises the vote going to the incumbent by around 1.5 percentage points. When it comes to the 20 highest attendance teams—big athletic programs like the University of Michigan, Oklahoma, and Southern Cal—a victory on the eve of an election pushes the vote for the incumbent up by 3 percentage points. That’s a lot of votes, certainly more than the margin of victory in a tight race. And these results aren’t based on just a handful of games or political seasons; the data were taken from 62 big-time college teams from 1964 to 2008.

The good news, we suppose, is that sports really can cheer us up and make the world seem like a brighter place. The sports fan is left happier and more satisfied all around, not just on the gridiron. When you are feeling upbeat and happy, you feel more satisfied with the status quo in general. And feeling satisfied with the status quo makes you more likely to vote for the incumbent politician, even if that’s totally irrational.

The study’s authors control for economic, demographic, and political factors, so the results are much more sophisticated than just a raw correlation. They also did a deeper analysis that took into account people’s expectations. It turns out that surprise wins are especially potent, raising local support for incumbent politicians by around 2.5 percentage points.

Alabama and Louisiana will go to Romney regardless of the score of a football game, but Obama has such a narrow lead in Ohio that we’ll take any benefits from Ohio State beating Illinois. Michigan is probably safe for Obama, but it doesn’t hurt that Michigan won today (despite Denard Robinson still being out after the injury suffered during the Nebraska game). Florida came back to beat Missouri, possibly delivering another swing state. Virginia beat North Carolina State, helping in the southeast swing state where Obama’s chances were already better. Miami beat Virginia Tech on Thursday, providing mixed results. Colorado was no match for Stanford so Obama better clinch reelection without waiting for the results from the western states just to be safe.

Going to more serious predictors. Obama maintains a lead in Ohio and  smaller leads in Florida and Virginia. Karl Rove says that Sandy has helped Obama. Is he preparing the spin for a loss by Romney? Authoritarian war-monger Rudy Giuliani calls on Obama to resign in a fiery speech which sounded much better in the original German. This looks like a faux issue which only those already believing the right wing alternate reality believe. A more objective view, and consideration of the facts, shows that this attempt to Swift Boat Obama has failed. Despite the attempts by the right wing to twist the facts, Condoleeza Rice  has defended the actions of the Obama Administration regarding  the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi.

Where We Stand In The Final Weekend Of Campaign 2012

The polls are looking favorable for Obama going into the final weekend before the election.

From the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)

Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)

Daily Tracking Polls:

ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

Public Policy Polling: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

Purple Strategies: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 46%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen typically has a two point Republican bias. Still, just showing a tie has Dick Morris backing off on his predictions which I discussed earlier this week.

Romney could still win, but would have to out-perform the polls by over two percent to have a chance. The Denver Post has nine electoral college predictions–showing different combinations of states which lead to an Obama victory.

Supporters of each party are looking for ways in which their party could out-perform the polls (with Obama merely needing to match the polls at this point). Both parties have argued that early voting is helping them. The problem for the Republicans is that much of their early voting is occurring in southern states which will go Republican regardless of when people vote. The real question is not who is getting the most early votes, but whether Democrats will increase their total turnout with early voting. Polls of all registered voters typically show the Democrats doing five points better than polls of likely voters. If the Democrats can narrow this gap they can boost the numbers above.

Back in 2004 liberal blogs were counting on the Incumbent Rule to give Kerry the victory. The basic idea is that if the incumbent is running at under 50 percent, the majority of undecided voters will break for the challenger (already knowing the incumbent), giving a challenger who is close behind the victory. That didn’t work for Kerry, and it doesn’t look like this will work for Romney.

Other factors might also alter the results compared to the polls. The Libertarian Party, along with the Constitution Party in Virginia, might take a small number of votes away from Romney. I don’t see the Green Party as being a threat to Obama this year as Nader was to Al Gore in 2000. The Constitution Party’s candidate, Virgil Goode, is from Virginia and has the potential of taking enough votes from Romney to give Obama the state in a close race, while Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson might be a spoiler in some western battle ground states.

There is speculation that the polls might be under-counting Latino votes, possibly enabling Obama to do several points better in some states, as Harry Reid did when running for reelection two years ago.

Under counting cell phone users might also play a part. Polls using robocalls are legally not allowed to call cell phone, underestimating younger voters who are more likely to vote Democratic (assuming they do show up to vote). Polls not using cell phones do try to adjust their numbers but at least one Democratic pollster believes that Obama is actually  doing much better than the polls show.

These factors favor Obama, and there is one more trend which helps Obama. He had the far better week, denying Romney the chance to regain the momentum he held after the first debate.  Besides just dominating the news, he benefits from comments from Chris Christie, the endorsement from Michael Bloomberg, and the report of an increase in jobs created. There is very little time left for something to happen to change the trajectory of the race.

 

Quote of the Day: Mitt Romney’s Advice Re Superstrom Sandy Via Bill Maher

“Today Mitt Romney advised that men should head for the shelters and women should remain in their binders.” –Bill Maher prior to Sandy reaching land.