Obama Leads Romney In Arizona

I’ve noted before that Arizona is a state where Obama has a shot of taking away a state which is not generally onsidered a swing state. Or course, since that post was written the national race has changed significantly due to the manner in which debates are won based upon style as opposed to substance. However, despite the tightening in the polls nationally, Arizona still does appear to be in play. The latest Rocky Mountain Poll shows Obama to be in the lead, although still within the margin of error:

After trailing Mitt Romney by as much as eight points in the days immediately following the Presidential debate, the President is now in a statistical tie with Romney in Arizona both as regards the overall electorate and among those mostly likely to cast ballots. While Obama leads Romney by two points in the race for President, the gap is within the study’s margin of error and basically means they are in a dead heat.

In the U.S.Senate race,Democrat Richard Carmona has a four point lead over Republican Jeff Flake,which again indicates a dead even race, since the vote gap is within the margin of error of the survey.Thus it must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battle ground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on which political party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang onto the Latino vote

Getting supporters out to vote is a key factor nation-wide as polls show Obama to do significantly worse in studies of likely voters as opposed to all registered voters. The tightening of the race in Arizona does show how significant the Latino vote is–a factor which might tip the balance in other close states.

Update: Josh Marshall questions whether this is an outlier. I don’t disagree, but I have seen other polls showing Obama to be close in Arizona and have read speculation that polling is underestimating Latino support. I don’t take this poll as reason to predict an Obama victory in Arizona at this point, but I do wonder whether Obama should put more of an effort into Arizona under the assumption that he does have a chance to win there. Besides, considering the number of states which Romney has to pick up to have a shot of winning should Obama maintain his lead in Ohio, forcing Romney to fight for another state just makes it a little bit more difficult for him. Winning Arizona would also increase the chances that Obama could win the election even if he were to lose Ohio and Florida.

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7 Comments

  1. 1
    Brett Durant says:

    RT @RonChusid: Obama Leads Romney In Arizona #p2 #p21 http://t.co/aX82jQ21 | That would've been a swing state in 2008 if not for McCain.

  2. 2
    BWDenn says:

    Obama Leads Romney In Arizona #p2 #p21 #topprog http://t.co/JYtWzM5J

  3. 3
    Maurice Ross says:

    Obama leads polls in Arizona. Romney debate bump receding as I predicted. http://t.co/YEmzsm5n

  4. 4
    Liberal Effects says:

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  5. 5
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  6. 6
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  7. 7
    SneakyNinja says:

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