Current Electoral College Predictions Favorable For Obama

Click for www.electoral-vote.com

While the national polls seem to be receiving more attention, it is the electoral college which determines the winner. Electoral-vote.com has a handy map of projections based upon the latest polls. The image above is linked to the latest data, and will probably be different from what is discussed here over time. A significant move nationally for either candidate will change some of the battle ground states, and some might change even if the national race remains tied.

At the time this is being posted, Obama is projected to win 294 electoral votes with 9 tied and 235 for Romney. For the sake of discussion I will start from each candidate’s strong and  likely states without the states barely in their column. At the moment, while the national polls show a virtual tie, Obama still has a significant lead in the electoral college. With a tied national race, the Republicans do not do as well in the electoral college since many of their supporters are in strong Republican states where there is no additional benefit to winning by larger margins. Should Romney take a meaningful lead nationally, he will also probably win some of the states now barely leaning towards Obama, and possibly some now listed as likely for Obama.

Looking at just the Strongly Dem or Likely Dem states, Obama already has 258 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Add either Michigan or Virginia from the Barely Dem list and Obama wins, giving him a margin should he not be able to hold on to all the states in this projection.. Another possible route to victory without either of these states would be Oregon (Leaning Dem) and Colorado (tied). Even if Romney should manage to pick up Ohio or Pennsylvania, which now are listed as likely Democratic, Obama could still win if he holds on to the these states which are now leaning towards him.

While Romney might have a chance to pick up some of the states which are now listed as being Democratic, Obama also has a chance to take away some of the states listed as Likely GOP, such as Florida and North Carolina.

The current projection also has the Democrats holding the Senate with fifty Democrats, forty-eight Republicans, and two races now listed as ties. An Obama victory would leave Democrats in control of the Senate in the case of a fifty-fifty tie.

Update: New polls out today show Obama leading in Michigan and Colorado. His lead is 53-39 in Michigan–looks safe, while his four point  lead in Colorado at the margin of error.

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2 Comments

  1. 1
    John Sonntag says:

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  2. 2
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