Romney Clinches Nomination

Mitt Romney clinched the GOP nomination tonight–thanks Texas. Romney undoubtedly followed this victory with another speech full of flip-flops and lies.

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Will Romney’s Dishonesty And Pandering To Birthers Become An Issue?

Eugene Robinson pointed out how Romney lies a lot, even by the usual standards for politicians:

There are those who tell the truth. There are those who distort the truth. And then there’s Mitt Romney.

Every political campaign exaggerates and dissembles. This practice may not be admirable — it’s surely one reason so many Americans are disenchanted with politics — but it’s something we’ve all come to expect. Candidates claim the right to make any boast or accusation as long as there’s a kernel of veracity in there somewhere.

Even by this lax standard, Romney too often fails. Not to put too fine a point on it, he lies. Quite a bit.

He went on to show that Romney both repeats the usual right wing fictions, with some embellishment of his own, and makes up totally new fictions.

Greg Sargent gave further examples of Romneys dishonesty and asked:

Many of the claims that form the foundation of Romney’s entire case for the presidency are going without any meaningful national press scrutiny to speak of. Why?

Perhaps if we really did have a liberal media. Or a news media which is willing to do real reporting.

Donald Trump is turning into a major Romney surrogate, and has been raising the discredited birther claims. One would think that this would also be damaging to Romney, but apparently he thinks he can win by bringing out the lunatic right wing fringe to vote for him.

Current Electoral College Predictions Favorable For Obama

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While the national polls seem to be receiving more attention, it is the electoral college which determines the winner. has a handy map of projections based upon the latest polls. The image above is linked to the latest data, and will probably be different from what is discussed here over time. A significant move nationally for either candidate will change some of the battle ground states, and some might change even if the national race remains tied.

At the time this is being posted, Obama is projected to win 294 electoral votes with 9 tied and 235 for Romney. For the sake of discussion I will start from each candidate’s strong and  likely states without the states barely in their column. At the moment, while the national polls show a virtual tie, Obama still has a significant lead in the electoral college. With a tied national race, the Republicans do not do as well in the electoral college since many of their supporters are in strong Republican states where there is no additional benefit to winning by larger margins. Should Romney take a meaningful lead nationally, he will also probably win some of the states now barely leaning towards Obama, and possibly some now listed as likely for Obama.

Looking at just the Strongly Dem or Likely Dem states, Obama already has 258 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Add either Michigan or Virginia from the Barely Dem list and Obama wins, giving him a margin should he not be able to hold on to all the states in this projection.. Another possible route to victory without either of these states would be Oregon (Leaning Dem) and Colorado (tied). Even if Romney should manage to pick up Ohio or Pennsylvania, which now are listed as likely Democratic, Obama could still win if he holds on to the these states which are now leaning towards him.

While Romney might have a chance to pick up some of the states which are now listed as being Democratic, Obama also has a chance to take away some of the states listed as Likely GOP, such as Florida and North Carolina.

The current projection also has the Democrats holding the Senate with fifty Democrats, forty-eight Republicans, and two races now listed as ties. An Obama victory would leave Democrats in control of the Senate in the case of a fifty-fifty tie.

Update: New polls out today show Obama leading in Michigan and Colorado. His lead is 53-39 in Michigan–looks safe, while his four point  lead in Colorado at the margin of error.

Quote of the Day

“A very moving moment today as Romney placed a wreath on the Tomb of the Unknown Banker”. –Andy Borowitz