Electoral Consequences of the Rapture

“We always talk about demographic change helping Democrats with the rise of the Hispanic vote, but if the Rapture occurs it would be an even more immediate boost to Democratic electoral prospects.” —Public Policy Polling

Public Policy Polling found  that if the Rapture occurs, this will provide a  2-5 point boost to Obama’s reelection prospects as a larger percentage of those who believe the Rapture will occur are Republicans. (For the sake of discussion I’ll go along with their assumption that those who believe in the Rapture are more likely to actually be affected if the Rapture occurs, but there are certainly  counter-arguments to this imaginable.) Here is  how the match-up changes with different candidates:

Obama’s lead over Romney is 7 points with all voters, but if you take out the ones who think the Rapture will occur in their lifetime his advantage increases to 9 points. That’s because the Rapture voters support Romney by a 49-35 margin. Against Gingrich Obama’s 14 point lead overall becomes a 17 point one if you take out take the ‘Rapturers’ because they support Gingrich 50-37. And Obama’s 17 point lead over Palin becomes a 22 point spread without those voters because they support Palin 54-37.

Sarah Palin is the most popular potential candidate among those who believe the Rapture is going to occur but, unfortunately for her, her approval rating is quite low with everybody else.

One other bit of trivia from the poll: Only two percent believed the Rapture was going to occur last week, as compared to ten percent who believe Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ.


  1. 1
    Jim Densmore says:

    Poll finds the Rapture helps Democrats if it occurs assuming the believers are the ones who go. #p2 #p21 #topprog http://t.co/bYr9Ara

  2. 2
    cognitive dissident says:

    "Only 2% believed the Rapture was going to occur last week, as compared to 10% who believe Obama is the Anti-Christ." http://bit.ly/kNpL2e

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