One result of the fall in popularity among Republicans in the midwest since the 2010 elections is that Democratic Senators who had previously appeared vulnerable in 2012 now have a far greater chance of winning. Michigan has been listed as a toss-up state in the fight for control of the Senate in 2012, but Debbie Stabenow’s chances for reelection now appear much stronger. Public Policy Polling reports:
The biggest beneficiaries of the Midwestern backlash toward newly elected Republican Governors might be the Democratic Senators up for reelection in those states next year. Earlier this month we found Herb Kohl and Sherrod Brown in pretty solid shape for reelection in Wisconsin and Ohio respectively, and now Debbie Stabenow’s standing is looking much improved from when PPP last polled Michigan in early December.
Stabenow’s net approval rating has improved six points to +7 (46/39) from its +1 standing (41/40) in early December. More importantly she now leads all of the Republicans we tested against her by double digits. She’s up 10 on former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 48-38, 12 on former Congressman Pete Hoekstra at 50-38, 17 on former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis at 52-35, and 19 on announced candidate Randy Hekman at 52-33. The numbers against Land and Hoekstra are most telling because we also tested them against Stabenow in December. Stabenow is now doing 6 points better against Land, having led by only 4 at 45-41 on the previous poll. And she’s doing 11 points better against Hoekstra, having led by just a single point at 45-44 on the original survey.
Democrats shouuld do much better in 2012 than in 2010 as the electorate will more closely resemble that of 2008 with more young voters and minorities turning out to vote. Another advantage will be having Barack Obama on the top of the ticket. While a lot can still change, today’s polls show Obama easily beating any generic Republican. Considering the weakness which the Republican candidates have, any actual Republican candidate is likely to do even worse than the generic candidate.