Liberal Values Defending Liberty and Enlightened Thought

The Democrats have two major problems going into the off-year elections: 1) they must defend many seats which have been historically Republican but picked up in the last two election cycles, and 2) they will not have Barack Obama on the ballot to bring in the new voters and young voters who traditionally do not vote in off year elections.

As I noted earlier this spring, the Democrats are attempting to turn out the new voters. Karen Tumulty reported on this in The Washington Post and characterized it as a gamble:

As political gambles go, it’s a big and risky one: $50 million to test the proposition that the Democratic Party’s outreach to new voters that helped make Barack Obama president can work in an election where his name is not on the ballot.

The standard rule of midterm elections is that only the most reliable voters show up at the polls, so both parties have traditionally focused on the unglamorous and conventional work that turns out their bases. But this year, the Democrats are doubling down on registering and motivating newer voters — especially the 15 million heavily minority and young, who made it to the polls for the first time in the last presidential election.

“It’s a great experiment to see whether we can bring out voters whose only previous vote was in 2008,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The party’s overall budget for reaching new voters is more than twice as big as the $17 million it spent during the tumultuous 2006 midterm, which returned control of both houses of Congress to the Democrats.

If this is a gamble, it is a gamble similar to Howard Dean’s fifty state strategy. The Democrats need these voters to turn out to avoid losing several seats in both Houses and it only makes sense to make the effort to try.

I think it is a safe bet to say that this will not be completely successful. There’s little doubt that young voters and new voters will not turn out as they did in 2008. However this is not a win or lose proposition. The Democrats can benefit if the effort is partially successful and brings out enough voters to tip the vote in their election in some Congressional districts. In addition, keeping such grass roots operations alive helps prepare for the 2012 elections–helping both Barack Obama and other Democratic candidates on the ballot.