Nate Silver Calling Brown a 3:1 Favorite

Still more bad news for Coakley: Nate Silver, who switched from leaning to Coakley to toss-up over the weekend, has revised his prediction again. Silver is calling Brown a 3:1 favorite. While saying that Coakley’s chances are much worse than twenty-four hours ago, Silver continues to caution that polling on special elections is unreliable.

Posted in Congress, Politics, Polls. 2 Comments »

Rothenberg Calls Massachusetts Race As Leaning To Brown

Add The Rothenberg Political Report to the list of those now seeing Massachusetts as leaning to Brown. While late polls have not looked good, at worst people are calling it as “leaning” to Brown or a toss up. Special elections are very difficult to predict. Considering it is Massachusetts I would not give up hope yet.

Of the various back up plans for passing health care reform should the Democrats lose their super-majority, most of the talk the last few days has centered around having the House pass the Senate bill unchanged so that it would not have to go back to the Senate for another vote. Afterward some changes might be made, including some by budget reconciliation which would only require a simple majority.

It is not certain this plan will work. Some House liberals might not go along with the more conservative Senate bill. It is also possible that some House members might now see voting for health care reform as too risky politically and vote against the Senate measure.