Republicans At New Low While Obama’s Approval Rising

Polls taken when there is not an upcoming election are of limited value, but conservatives have loved to cite selective findings to claim that support for Obama and the Democratic Party are falling. Wherever they are at this point can change dramatically when we are actually having an election campaign. The reality is that support for the Republican Party has fallen to a new low while support for Barack Obama has increased since the election. Public Policy Polling noted an interesting finding:

Barack Obama’s approval rating with people who didn’t vote for him is 14%.

Barack Obama’s disapproval rating with people who voted for him is 6%.

So he’s won over twice as many people as he’s lost since he got elected. Who in the national media is going to write that story? Not bad for someone whose support is supposedly falling apart.

This is despite Obama being faced with gross distortions of what his health care reform proposals actually consist of.

Update: There are clearly limitations to this data (with some noted in the comments). It is simply a matter of interest which, like pretty much all the polls taken at this point, provides no real predictive value of how the Democratic Party or Obama will do in future elections

One key point missed in many polls is geography as they treat elections as national elections. When I’ve seen polls break results down by state, it often appears that we are just seeing more support for Republicans and opposition to Obama in the red states as opposed to changes which are likely to affect elections.

For the most part we are seeing the south and Mormon belt of the west becoming even more Republican while GOP support drops elsewhere. Still history suggests some Republican pick ups in 2010. The biggest problems the Democrats have now is 1) Republican voters at the moment have greater intensity and 2) many Democrats are in the position of defending House seats in 2010 which have traditionally been in Republican hands (and without the benefit of Obama on the ballot).

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2 Comments

  1. 1
    david freeman says:

    As much as I’d like to think that the president has “won over twice as many people as he’s lost since he got elected” this particular data does not support that statement. What was “Obama’s approval rating with people who didn’t vote for him” at the time of the election? It may have been more than 14%. What was “Obama’s disapproval rating with people who voted for him” at the time of the election? It may have been less than 6%.
    Frankly, you should delete this post because of it’s mistaken logic. Please.

  2. 2
    Ron Chusid says:

    These are the conclusions from Public Policy Polling.

    As with most polls taken now, this is of limited significance and certainly is not predictive of future election results. The relative difference in approval among the groups is an interesting point, even if there are clear limitations to this. Another problem in taking this too seriously is that people don’t necessarily honest answer questions honestly as to who they voted for. This cannot be taken too seriously to predict how Obama will do in the future, but the same can be said of all the polling done today.

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