Comments on: The Republican Scare Tactics on Health Care Don’t Sound As Good As In The Past http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/ Defending Liberty and Enlightened Thought Wed, 23 May 2012 06:11:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Jesmi http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218359 Jesmi Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:31:25 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218359  believe the health care industry wants the McCain plan as their ‘dream scenario.’ A completely open national market with state lines erased so that providers in the least regulated states could short circuit the requirements of the most regulated is exactly what the industry would like to see in the way of ‘reform.’ I have to admit to skepticism about willingness beyond that level. What I have read from the industry skews one of two ways: the acknowledgment of the need for single payer or even ’socialized medicine’, mostly from doctors, or the denial of the need for what I would call ‘real’ reform at all but merely a modification of the existing system to extend ‘coverage’ to more individuals in some manner that makes them money even if the government foots the bill, this mostly from businesspeople.  believe the health care industry wants the McCain plan as their ‘dream scenario.’ A completely open national market with state lines erased so that providers in the least regulated states could short circuit the requirements of the most regulated is exactly what the industry would like to see in the way of ‘reform.’ I have to admit to skepticism about willingness beyond that level. What I have read from the industry skews one of two ways: the acknowledgment of the need for single payer or even ’socialized medicine’, mostly from doctors, or the denial of the need for what I would call ‘real’ reform at all but merely a modification of the existing system to extend ‘coverage’ to more individuals in some manner that makes them money even if the government foots the bill, this mostly from businesspeople.

]]> By: Christoher Skyi http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218180 Christoher Skyi Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:35:46 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218180 Hummmm . . . .   <a href="http://skynetresearch.com/" rel="nofollow">SkyNet Research</a> <a href="http://www.skynet.net/" rel="nofollow">SkyNet Express</a> <a href="http://www.skynetusa.com/" rel="nofollow">SkyNet U.S.A.</a>   Hummmm . . . .
 
SkyNet Research
SkyNet Express
SkyNet U.S.A.
 

]]> By: Ron Chusid http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218179 Ron Chusid Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:53:49 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218179 <p>Re Arnold, <em>Reason</em> says "He promised to stop the crazy deficit spending, cut up the credit cards, live within our means."</p> <p>I thought he was elected to prevent the rise of the machines. So far he has kept his promise on that one.   :)</p> Re Arnold, Reason says “He promised to stop the crazy deficit spending, cut up the credit cards, live within our means.”

I thought he was elected to prevent the rise of the machines. So far he has kept his promise on that one.   :)

]]> By: Christoher Skyi http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218177 Christoher Skyi Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:39:26 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218177 Good Grief! Oama's about to speak live on MSNBC about the latest job numbers?!  Sounds like they're very worried -- and all they have to offer is the (over) promise (yet another one) of "green" jobs and energy, and to desperately try to save the cap and tax bill in the Senate. Good Grief! Oama’s about to speak live on MSNBC about the latest job numbers?!  Sounds like they’re very worried — and all they have to offer is the (over) promise (yet another one) of “green” jobs and energy, and to desperately try to save the cap and tax bill in the Senate.

]]> By: Christoher Skyi http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218176 Christoher Skyi Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:16:19 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218176 "Liberal democrate programs,wrecking what should be the most vibrante state economy with all its diverse businesses from Hollywood to agriculture. But they have a liberal republican leader to take the fall. Obama might be able to cover under “blame the last guy” for awhile but it will be way too obvious before his term is over."   Yes, this is very good point about CA. Reason.tv did a very good job explaining the root of CA's problems, and how CA may foreshadow what's coming nationally -- a weaker and weaker private sector while the Federal government grows larger and stronger:   <a href="http://reason.tv/video/show/783.html" rel="nofollow">HASTA LA VISTA, ARNOLD!</a> “Liberal democrate programs,wrecking what should be the most vibrante state economy with all its diverse businesses from Hollywood to agriculture. But they have a liberal republican leader to take the fall. Obama might be able to cover under “blame the last guy” for awhile but it will be way too obvious before his term is over.”
 
Yes, this is very good point about CA. Reason.tv did a very good job explaining the root of CA’s problems, and how CA may foreshadow what’s coming nationally — a weaker and weaker private sector while the Federal government grows larger and stronger:
 
HASTA LA VISTA, ARNOLD!

]]> By: Fritz http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218175 Fritz Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:13:51 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218175 So the consensus is that it would be too early to shift blame for the 2010 elections, but if the economy still sucks when entering the 2012 election cycle, then it would be appropriate to shift blame? So the consensus is that it would be too early to shift blame for the 2010 elections, but if the economy still sucks when entering the 2012 election cycle, then it would be appropriate to shift blame?

]]> By: Christoher Skyi http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218174 Christoher Skyi Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:10:53 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218174 "It is hard to say an exact time frame but as of last fall the conventional wisdom was that it would take at least a couple of years to recover from the downturn."   This simply comes from the historical record -- just about every recession we've had has eventually ended w/in a couple of years, independent of which party as been in charge.  It's like predicting at 3am that "the sun will rise in a few hours" -- it's a very safe bet no matter what.   Let's look at the specific sales pitch by team Obama for a massively expensive stimulus package:   Obama has said his stimulus plan would create millions of jobs at a time when the nation's unemployment rate has been on a frightening upward trajectory.   "The stimulus is supposed to be designed to stabilize employment," said Richard Sylla of New York University's Leonard N. Stern School of Business.  "We can measure job creation then, and we can also measure new claims for unemployment benefits to see if the plan is doing what it's supposed to do — stabilize employment," he said.     Obama has said the stimulus could create up to 4 million jobs. That means he has been looking at the most optimistic numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. This month, the CBO released an analysis of the stimulus bill as approved by the House. The Senate passed its own version. Because the two plans are substantively the same, CBO officials say their earlier analysis still holds.     According to Douglas Elmendorf, the CBO's director, the stimulus plan would, by the fourth quarter of 2010, increase employment by 1.3 million to 3.9 million jobs. Without the stimulus, the analysis projects, the jobless rate would be 8.7 percent in that same quarter (NOTE that we're close to 10% now. It's impossible to believe that w/in the next 6 month, UE is going to drop by 2%). With the stimulus, unemployment would be lower by anywhere from 0.7 percentage points to 2.1 percentage points, according to the CBO.     The reality is that the economy has shed 1.6 million jobs since the stimulus measure was signed in February, <strong>far overshadowing White House announcements estimating the effort has saved 150,000 jobs</strong>. Public opinion of Obama's handling of the economy has declined along with the jobs data.   For the first time, the administration admitted the economic forecasts it used to sell the stimulus were overly optimistic.  "At the time, our forecast seemed reasonable," Vice President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, said Monday, explaining that <strong>the White House underestimated the scope of the recession</strong>. "Now, looking back, it was clearly too optimistic."   Worse, any boost to the economy might be short-lived, CBO warns. "The effects of the legislation would diminish rapidly after 2010," Elmendorf said in a report sent to leaders of the House and Senate budget committees.   Tyler Cowen of George Mason University s among a cadre of economists who argue that the administration should have moved first to stabilize the nation's banking system and its housing market before moving the stimulus plan through Congress.   "Banks need to be working better for any stimulus to work," Tyler says. "I'll be looking at the whole mess of the banking system and how it is getting resolved."   Amity Shlaes, a senior fellow for Economic History at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that the stimulus package will encourage "some growth for the shorter term."   But, like Tyler, her more conservative priorities would have been to tackle banking first, then fix entitlement programs like Social Security and create tax laws that benefit business.   "Hang a sign around the U.S. that says, 'Open for Business,' " she says, "and then decide if you need a stimulus."     <strong>By now, according to earlier White House economic models, the nation's unemployment rate should be on the decline. The forecasts used to drum up support for the plan projected today's unemployment would be about 8 percent. Instead, it sits at 9.4 percent, the highest in more than 25 years.</strong>     In December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research published "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?" by Andrew Mountford of the University of London and Harald Uhlig of the University of Chicago. "The best fiscal policy to stimulate the economy," they report, "is a deficit-financed tax cut," and "the long term costs of fiscal expansion through government spending are probably greater than the short term gains."     That's because "government spending shocks crowd out both residential and non-residential investment," while "the [positive] response of consumption is small and only significantly different from zero on impact" (i.e., temporarily). But suppose all of these recent studies were mistaken, and the House Democrats' spending spree worked as advertised. We're still left with three million jobs added or saved at a cost of $825 billion -- $275,000 per job.   In short, a growing body of evidence suggests that a dollar of extra spending is likely to lift nominal income by less than a dollar, arguably much less. Several studies suggest the multiplier may be less than zero after a couple of years, because private investment (including housing) eventually falls by more than government spending rises. <a href="http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9913" rel="nofollow">Another $550 billion of deficit spending on top of a deficit already above $1 trillion is likely to prove more dangerous than helpful to an economy already overloaded with risky debt.</a>     Based on team Obama's on preditions and promises, it doesn't look good, and that was yesterday. After today's job numbers, it looks even worse.   A more technical write-up can be found here:   <a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/01/wolf-versus-pettis-on-us-stimulus.html" rel="nofollow">Wolf Versus Pettis on US Stimulus, Fiscal Deficit (Not for the Fainthearted)</a>   It's sobering stuff. If correct,  Obama and team Obama can kiss goodbye any hopes of a second run,  but they'll be the luckly ones. Life for all us is about to get much Much worse  and for long Long time.             “It is hard to say an exact time frame but as of last fall the conventional wisdom was that it would take at least a couple of years to recover from the downturn.”
 
This simply comes from the historical record — just about every recession we’ve had has eventually ended w/in a couple of years, independent of which party as been in charge.  It’s like predicting at 3am that “the sun will rise in a few hours” — it’s a very safe bet no matter what.
 
Let’s look at the specific sales pitch by team Obama for a massively expensive stimulus package:
 
Obama has said his stimulus plan would create millions of jobs at a time when the nation’s unemployment rate has been on a frightening upward trajectory.
 
“The stimulus is supposed to be designed to stabilize employment,” said Richard Sylla of New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business.  “We can measure job creation then, and we can also measure new claims for unemployment benefits to see if the plan is doing what it’s supposed to do — stabilize employment,” he said.
 
 
Obama has said the stimulus could create up to 4 million jobs. That means he has been looking at the most optimistic numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. This month, the CBO released an analysis of the stimulus bill as approved by the House. The Senate passed its own version. Because the two plans are substantively the same, CBO officials say their earlier analysis still holds.
 
 
According to Douglas Elmendorf, the CBO’s director, the stimulus plan would, by the fourth quarter of 2010, increase employment by 1.3 million to 3.9 million jobs. Without the stimulus, the analysis projects, the jobless rate would be 8.7 percent in that same quarter (NOTE that we’re close to 10% now. It’s impossible to believe that w/in the next 6 month, UE is going to drop by 2%). With the stimulus, unemployment would be lower by anywhere from 0.7 percentage points to 2.1 percentage points, according to the CBO.
 
 
The reality is that the economy has shed 1.6 million jobs since the stimulus measure was signed in February, far overshadowing White House announcements estimating the effort has saved 150,000 jobs. Public opinion of Obama’s handling of the economy has declined along with the jobs data.
 
For the first time, the administration admitted the economic forecasts it used to sell the stimulus were overly optimistic.  “At the time, our forecast seemed reasonable,” Vice President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, said Monday, explaining that the White House underestimated the scope of the recession. “Now, looking back, it was clearly too optimistic.”
 
Worse, any boost to the economy might be short-lived, CBO warns. “The effects of the legislation would diminish rapidly after 2010,” Elmendorf said in a report sent to leaders of the House and Senate budget committees.
 
Tyler Cowen of George Mason University s among a cadre of economists who argue that the administration should have moved first to stabilize the nation’s banking system and its housing market before moving the stimulus plan through Congress.
 
“Banks need to be working better for any stimulus to work,” Tyler says. “I’ll be looking at the whole mess of the banking system and how it is getting resolved.”
 
Amity Shlaes, a senior fellow for Economic History at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that the stimulus package will encourage “some growth for the shorter term.”
 
But, like Tyler, her more conservative priorities would have been to tackle banking first, then fix entitlement programs like Social Security and create tax laws that benefit business.
 
“Hang a sign around the U.S. that says, ‘Open for Business,’ ” she says, “and then decide if you need a stimulus.”
 
 
By now, according to earlier White House economic models, the nation’s unemployment rate should be on the decline. The forecasts used to drum up support for the plan projected today’s unemployment would be about 8 percent. Instead, it sits at 9.4 percent, the highest in more than 25 years.
 
 
In December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research published “What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?” by Andrew Mountford of the University of London and Harald Uhlig of the University of Chicago. “The best fiscal policy to stimulate the economy,” they report, “is a deficit-financed tax cut,” and “the long term costs of fiscal expansion through government spending are probably greater than the short term gains.”
 
 
That’s because “government spending shocks crowd out both residential and non-residential investment,” while “the [positive] response of consumption is small and only significantly different from zero on impact” (i.e., temporarily). But suppose all of these recent studies were mistaken, and the House Democrats’ spending spree worked as advertised. We’re still left with three million jobs added or saved at a cost of $825 billion — $275,000 per job.
 
In short, a growing body of evidence suggests that a dollar of extra spending is likely to lift nominal income by less than a dollar, arguably much less. Several studies suggest the multiplier may be less than zero after a couple of years, because private investment (including housing) eventually falls by more than government spending rises. Another $550 billion of deficit spending on top of a deficit already above $1 trillion is likely to prove more dangerous than helpful to an economy already overloaded with risky debt.
 
 
Based on team Obama’s on preditions and promises, it doesn’t look good, and that was yesterday. After today’s job numbers, it looks even worse.
 
A more technical write-up can be found here:
 
Wolf Versus Pettis on US Stimulus, Fiscal Deficit (Not for the Fainthearted)
 
It’s sobering stuff. If correct,  Obama and team Obama can kiss goodbye any hopes of a second run,  but they’ll be the luckly ones. Life for all us is about to get much Much worse  and for long Long time.
 
 
 
 
 
 

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218173 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:07:14 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218173 Since I really would like opponents to make concrete predictions on say when they think Unemployment will get back to say 6%, let me make a concrete prediction myself. Reference point: I purchased a Gallon of milk for $2.50 at Walmart here in Austin and a loaf of bread for 2something (..2.68 or whatever) both items will be over $5 before Obama's first term ends, granted, I suspect minimum wage will climb from 7 bucks to 10 so we all, relatively speaking will not be twice as broke as we are now, but definately worse than we are now. But I'm not panicked, because I don't put my faith in government, my faith is in God, well...and..er..my .243 bolt action rifle. Since I really would like opponents to make concrete predictions on say when they think Unemployment will get back to say 6%, let me make a concrete prediction myself. Reference point: I purchased a Gallon of milk for $2.50 at Walmart here in Austin and a loaf of bread for 2something (..2.68 or whatever) both items will be over $5 before Obama’s first term ends, granted, I suspect minimum wage will climb from 7 bucks to 10 so we all, relatively speaking will not be twice as broke as we are now, but definately worse than we are now. But I’m not panicked, because I don’t put my faith in government, my faith is in God, well…and..er..my .243 bolt action rifle.

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218172 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:57:40 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218172 Dare I say McCain America would be like Arnold's California. Liberal democrate programs,wrecking what should be the most vibrante state economy with all its diverse businesses from Hollywood to agriculture. But they have a liberal republican leader to take the fall. Obama might be able to cover under "blame the last guy" for awhile but it will be way too obvious before his term is over. Dare I say McCain America would be like Arnold’s California. Liberal democrate programs,wrecking what should be the most vibrante state economy with all its diverse businesses from Hollywood to agriculture. But they have a liberal republican leader to take the fall. Obama might be able to cover under “blame the last guy” for awhile but it will be way too obvious before his term is over.

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218170 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:42:22 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218170 If McCain had been elected, I would have expected a protracted downturn as his agenda, IMO would have continued to make things worse. The silver lining with Obama is his agenda is so extreme, I believe we'll be able to see the error in it more distinctly and rapidly. If McCain had been elected, I would have expected a protracted downturn as his agenda, IMO would have continued to make things worse. The silver lining with Obama is his agenda is so extreme, I believe we’ll be able to see the error in it more distinctly and rapidly.

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218169 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:50:07 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218169 Reagan cartoon, perhaps somewhere around 1981-1982 (I would have been about 14 years old) Frame one: Reagan as Captain steering a ship called the economy towards a waterfall, yelling: "Stay the course!" Frame two: Reagan yelling "stay the course" as the ship heads down the waterfall. Frame three: The ship is spattered on the rocks below and Reagan says; "Damn democrats!" Reagan cartoon, perhaps somewhere around 1981-1982 (I would have been about 14 years old)
Frame one: Reagan as Captain steering a ship called the economy towards a waterfall, yelling: “Stay the course!”

Frame two: Reagan yelling “stay the course” as the ship heads down the waterfall.

Frame three: The ship is spattered on the rocks below and Reagan says; “Damn democrats!”

]]> By: Ron Chusid http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218168 Ron Chusid Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:45:06 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218168 <p>I should also add that the predictions last fall were that things would be worse in 2009 before conditions started to improve.</p> I should also add that the predictions last fall were that things would be worse in 2009 before conditions started to improve.

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218167 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:44:00 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218167 Ron, I see you already answered my last question in a previous post...Thanks. Ron, I see you already answered my last question in a previous post…Thanks.

]]> By: Mike b.t.r.m. http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218166 Mike b.t.r.m. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:42:48 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218166 Premature to expect the, we have to pass the whole package, A.I.G. bonus and all bill, this minute for the shovel ready projects to improve things when? How do you determine Obama hasn't already saved the day? Perhaps but for Obama's actions we wouldn't be at 11% unemployment already. What time table would you suggest we use? Suddenly I have a vision of a mob of one party dropping there signs of "We need time tables" and them picked up by another party who start chanting the same thing. I've got a Ronald Reagan cartoon I remember as a teen I'll put in the next post. Premature to expect the, we have to pass the whole package, A.I.G. bonus and all bill, this minute for the shovel ready projects to improve things when? How do you determine Obama hasn’t already saved the day? Perhaps but for Obama’s actions we wouldn’t be at 11% unemployment already. What time table would you suggest we use? Suddenly I have a vision of a mob of one party dropping there signs of “We need time tables” and them picked up by another party who start chanting the same thing. I’ve got a Ronald Reagan cartoon I remember as a teen I’ll put in the next post.

]]> By: Ron Chusid http://liberalvaluesblog.com/2009/07/02/the-republican-scare-tactics-on-health-care-dont-sound-as-good-as-in-the-past/comment-page-1/#comment-218165 Ron Chusid Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:36:56 +0000 http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=9139#comment-218165 <p>It is hard to say an exact time frame but as of last fall the conventional wisdom was that it would take at least a couple of years to recover from the downturn. Suddenly conservatives act as if this can be corrected immediately or Obama is at fault. Needless to say, if McCain had been elected they would not expect a rapid turn around.</p> It is hard to say an exact time frame but as of last fall the conventional wisdom was that it would take at least a couple of years to recover from the downturn. Suddenly conservatives act as if this can be corrected immediately or Obama is at fault. Needless to say, if McCain had been elected they would not expect a rapid turn around.

]]>