Court Tips To Right

While it seems like the Democrats have won pretty much everywhere, The New York Times describes how the Supreme Court is tipping more to the right:

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. emerged as a canny strategist at the Supreme Court this term, laying the groundwork for bold changes that could take the court to the right even as the recent elections moved the nation to the left.

The court took mainly incremental steps in major cases concerning voting rights, employment discrimination, criminal procedure and campaign finance. But the chief justice’s fingerprints were on all of them, and he left clues that the court is only one decision away from fundamental change in many areas of the law.

Whether he will succeed depends on Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the court’s swing vote. And there is reason to think that the chief justice has found a reliable ally when it counts.

“In the important cases, Kennedy ends up on the right,” said Thomas C. Goldstein, a student of the court and the founder of Scotusblog, which has compiled comprehensive statistics on the current term. The two justices agreed 86 percent of the time.

If Judge Sonia Sotomayor is confirmed by the Senate, she will succeed Justice David H. Souter, a liberal who spent almost two decades on the court. Her record on the federal appeals court in New York suggests that her views are largely in sync with those of Justice Souter, though there is some evidence that she will turn out to be more conservative in criminal cases.

SCOTUS Blog believes that it won’t be until after the 2016 elections that the court can change direction:

Later in his term, President Obama will likely replace Justice Stevens with someone else on the left. If he is reelected in 2012, he will replace Justice Ginsburg with someone on the left. Nothing changes.

It isn’t until the election of 2016 at the earliest that there is a real prospect for a significant shift to the left in the Court’s ideology. Actuarially, that election is likely to decide which President appoints the successors to Justices Scalia and Kennedy (both on the right, and both 73 now) and Justice Breyer (on the left, and 70 now). Absent an unfortunate turn of health, between now and the summer of 2017 there is no realistic prospect that the Court will turn back to the left.

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Two New Polls on Health Care Reform

A Quinnipiac poll continues to show considerable public support for a public option to attempt to keep the insurance companies honest:

Sixty-nine percent of Americans support creation of a government-run health plan to compete with private insurance companies, a new poll found. In addition, 52 percent of those surveyed by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University said such a plan would keep the private insurance companies honest. Thirty-two percent disagreed. Twenty-six percent said they opposed a government-run insurance program.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey shows that there is room for Republicans to increase opposition by using fears of increased costs:

Fifty-one percent of people questioned in the poll say they favor the president’s health care plan, with 45 percent opposed. Obama aims to bring down health care costs and provide medical insurance to many of the more than 45 million Americans currently without coverage. His proposals, which are making their way through five different congressional committees in the Senate and the House, also call for a government-run health insurance program to compete with private insurers.

“Women and younger Americans are slightly more likely to support Obama’s approach to health care,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Those are usually the groups that are more concerned about health care and health insurance.”

The poll suggests that 55 percent think the U.S. health care system is in need of a great deal of reform, with four in ten saying only some reform is needed. Nearly half of those questioned have more trust in the President rather than Republicans in Congress to handle health care form, with 38 percent backing the congressional Republicans over Obama.

A government run health insurance program is one of the most controversial parts of the Obama health reform proposals, with Republicans suggesting that such a plan could force current health care providers out of business, forcing Americans to switch doctors. The poll indicates such arguments may not be working.

“Two-thirds believe that the president’s plan would allow them to see the same doctors they currently receive care from, and most say that their health insurance provider would not go out of business if Obama’s plan is passed,” says Holland.

But the poll does provide some ammunition for Republicans opposed to the president’s proposals. Fifty-four percent say their medical insurance costs will increase if the Obama plan becomes law, with 17 percent feeling their costs will decrease. Around one in four say their costs will remain the same. And only one in five say their family will be better off if the president’s plan becomes law, with 35 percent feeling they would be worse off, and 44 percent saying they would be about the same.

There is a considerable amount of misunderstanding about what is being proposed (with this largely being caused by a considerable amount of misinformation being spread by the right wing noise machine). It looks like this is having some effect with many believing insurance reform will increase insurance costs while less are buying the argument that they will be forced to change doctors. Providing more options will greatly decrease the current problem of people being forced to change doctors due to employers changing plans which the employees must join.

Bankruptcy Among The Insured

“Conceptually, insurance means normal people should not go bankrupt from serious medical conditions.”–Len Nichols, a health economist for the New America Foundation

Unfortunately the reality is that insurance does not work that way, as is discussed in this article in The New York Times.

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