Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, President of Peter D. Hart Research Associates is optimistic about the prospects for passing health care reform despite the inevitable attack from Republicans:
“The Republicans wrote their talking points before the Democrats wrote their plan and we already know they’re going to make the same attack they made against health care, health reform in ’93 or ’94, even though we’re not talking about a plan that looks like ’93 or ’94. So it’s all going to be about ‘government-run health care.’ … They’re going to be making a 16-year-old-argument against something that is very different from the plan of 16 years ago … And at the end of the day, (if it’s) a debate between Barack Obama and (Senate Minority Leader Mitch) McConnell, Obama is a better and more credible communicator.”
Whether he is right depends upon two things–whether the plan is really different from HillaryCare (as looks probable) and whether the Republicans can still win the spin war. It looks likely that, despite Obama’s opposition during the primaries, there will be an individual mandate. This will give the Republicans some strong debating points. Most likley they will spin such a mandate as a policy of the left when it is the demands of the insurance industry which are really responsible for this change.
In the end if the Democrats win on health care it will be partially because of the Republican talking points being out of date. More importantly it will be because of how much conditions have worsened since the 1990’s. This has led to many who opposed health care reform in the 1990’s, including many in the health care field as well as many businessmen and indivuals who can no longer afford health care, to now support reform.