Pundits Predict Election Results In Presidential and Congressional Races

The Washington Post has collected the predictions of fourteen pundits, including seven from the new media and seven from the old media. Three questions are included in the main summary after clicking on the link.

Twelve out of fourteen predict that Obama will win the presidential election, with Ed Morrissey and Fred Barnes disagreeing.I go along with the majority here, both as a prediction and my preference.

For most pundits, the question is not whether Obama will win but by how much and which route. The second question is whether Obama will win Virginia, with seven predicting he will. The reason I, as well as the pundits, believe Obama will win is that there are many routes to him making 270 electoral votes. The most conservative prediction is that Obama will take the Kerry states, along with Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. After these states Virginia is among the most likely to flip. It is far less certain that Obama will take any individual state than that he will win the election, but if forced to make a guess I’ll go with him taking Virginia. Not surprisingly, the more liberal pundits polled tend to go with this prediction.

The third question is whether they “think the GOP will dash Dem hopes of a 60-seat Senate majority.” All fourteen believe the Democrats will fall short of sixty seats. If forced to make a guess, I’d go with this but I am far less certain of this now than I was a week or two ago.

I also probably differ from most in the liberal blogosphere in being happy if the Democrats fail to accomplish this. For the benefit of newer readers. Liberal as used in the name of the blog is based upon the meaning of the word from a broad historical perspective dating back to the age of enlightenment (leading to the subheading of the blog title). Liberal is not intended to indicate agreement with the liberal blogosphere on all contemporary political matters. With the Republican Party being controlled by extremist social conservatives I tend to prefer Democratic candidates at present, but I do not have the long-term identification with the Democratic Party which is typical of most liberal bloggers. I prefer not to totally give up the checks and balances of a two party system by seeing the Democrats have a veto-proof majority in the Senate in 2009. I figure that there are a handful of moderate Republicans and the Democrats should be able to develop policies which at least one or two don’t feel compelled to filibuster. If it turns out that forty Republican Senators are really blocking popular legislation, there is an opportunity in two years for the voters to take action.

Besides these three key question, clicking on the names of the pundits will reveal additional questions they were asked to make predictions about, along with their exact predictions on the presidential and Congressional results.

Be Sociable, Share!

1 Comment

  1. 1
    DrToketee says:

    Man, I spend time every day studying the political news, and so I wish the Washington Post would pay me a few grand to do what they asked Fred Barnes to do … that idiot’s logic and opinion had rendered itself highly suspect years ago, and his reputation for outright ignorance of simple facts is known everywhere … why on earth – as an informed citizen – would I have any interest in anything Fred Barnes has to say?

Leave a comment