Close Race in Electoral College

The electoral vote projections based upon state polls lag behind the national polls. Therefore, while McCain’s post-convention bounce has ended in the national polls, some electoral college predictions lag behind and show McCain with a slight lead. The above map from shows McCain winning 270 to 268.

Don’t get too worried. Real Clear Politics shows Obama leading 273 to 265. As I mentioned above, these are already out of date. For example, SurveyUSA has Obama picking up three points and McCain losing three points in the past week, giving Obama a four point lead in the state. McCain has a lead of only two points in some of the states where he leads, making them likely to flip as they take the end of his bounce into account.

Just for the sake of discussion, let’s say that the first map is almost correct but add just one correction. There is speculation that Obama will pick up one electoral vote in Nebraska, which can split their vote. We saw in the nomination battle that Obama knows how to play the map to maximize gains within a state.

Flip the one vote in Nebraska to Obama and we have a tie in the electoral college, probably giving the election to Obama in the House. Then what if somehow the Republicans retake the Senate? Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP? An election year which has already been unusual might bring even bigger surprises.


  1. 1
    Eric D. Rittberg says:

    And there is solid evidence to suggest that McCain will pick up two votes in the split state of Maine.  The Northern Congressional District – Bangor, Lewiston, Auburn – leans heavily Republican. 

  2. 2
    Ron Chusid says:

    Republicans haven’t been able to win in these “heavily Republican” areas in the past. At this point it looks much more likely that Obama can pull this off in Nebraska than McCain can in Maine, but having two states which split their electoral vote could make things interesting.

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