Polls Remain Close As Obama Remains Strong in Battleground States

The polls continue to show that the race is extremely close and most likely they will remain like this until there are new events such as the debates. McCain’s post convention bounce in the Gallup daily tracking poll, which had been at 5% for the past few days, has decreased one point to 4%. Post convention bounces from the party which held their convention last typically last a month so it will be a good sign if it continues to decrease this soon after. Gallup also reports an increase in Republican party identification but notes that short term shifts of this nature are typical after a convention.

Obama and McCain are tied in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll with both candidates being within a point of each other the last few days. Insider Advantage also shows the race as tied while some other national polls continue to give McCain a slight lead.

Part of McCain’s gain in the polls is due to receiving increased support from social conservatives after picking Palin, resulting in larger leads in typically Republican states which might not lead to gains in the electoral college. Obama remains strong in many battleground states. Public Policy Polling shows Obama with a one point lead in Colorado. Quinipiac shows Obama leading 49% to 44% in Ohio and leading 48% to 45% in Pennsylvania. McCain leads in Florida 50% to 43%.

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