McCain’s Dead Cat Bounce?

Democrats are understandably shook up over McCain’s recent lead in the polls but it appears that the post-convention bounce is leveling off. McCain’s lead remains unchanged at 5% in the Gallup daily tracking poll, with both candidates losing one point today. This is to be expected. In a close race the last major news event typically influences the polls. As Gallup pointed out yesterday, the bounce after the second convention typically lasts one month.

This means that some patience is needed until the debates and other events shake up these results. Fortunately most polls show the race as being virtually tied. Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows that when leaners are included Obama is recovering. Two days ago McCain led by one percent while today Obama has a one percent lead.

Either candidate can still win this race, but it is possible that McCain’s post-convention lead might turn out to be a dead cat bounce. The fundamentals still work against McCain. While the choice of Palin has helped McCain in the short run, this could turn out to be a costly mistake. By turning the race entirely to one over who will bring about change the race will be on Obama’s home turf. While voters might initially be dazzled by Palin, sooner or later they will realize that change does not mean four more years of the same. Sooner or later Palin will have to do more than read from prepared scripts and, while she might continue to energize the far right, she is also likely to cause independents to think further about this ticket.

This does not mean that there are no problems for Obama. He needs to again energize this race as he did last spring. He must talk about more than change and George Bush. He must more clearly define his policies and how they differ from those of John McCain, with the facts heavily favoring him in such a debate.

While some retooling is needed, Obama is right in not panicking. Today’s polls are not predictive of the final result. This might even be a year in which few of the polls get it right. Obama surprised Clinton by bringing in many new voters, and the polls are limited by questions of who will really turn out to vote. In 2004 there was every indication that Kerry would win if the youth vote turned out for him based upon their margin of support for him. As typically happens, the youth vote failed to turn out as hoped. This year could be different as Obama has already demonstrated an ability in the primaries to turn them out in  higher numbers than usual.

4 Comments

  1. 1
    MsJoanne says:

    I read this yesterday and thought it was great.  A funny take on the polls but a very serious look at all it will take to win.  And, unless we see the Diebold effect (I am not concerned about the Bradley effect), we all should take a chill pill from worrying over poll results.

  2. 2
    Jerry says:

    My concern has to do with the independent voters. These are people who jump on “maverick” bandwagons; shaking the status quo up is not only their cause but their very identity.
    For these, Obama’s McCain = Bush message is falling flat, because in many ways McCain is definitely not Bush. He’s worse.
    He makes decisions based on how he feels that day, not for any logical reasons (Bush at least thinks that he thinks). McCain likes to gamble and he’s famously superstitious. Palin’s even worse than that; she’s personally petty and vindictive, believes that wars can be “missions from God”, etc. etc. etc.
    They are far more dangerous than Bush. Maybe Obama should give them a new slogan: “Change you should be scared of!”

  3. 3
    MsJoanne says:

    “Change you should be scared of” is an awesome slogan!  I love it!

  4. 4
    Ron Chusid says:

    Jerry,

    The maverick bandwagon is only part of this. McCain made many statements in his acceptance speech, which are also in his stump speech, which makes him sound far more moderate and bipartisan than he is. The challenge is to get people to understand McCain’s actual record before they vote.

    I actually think McCain might be better than Bush, but that is a very low bar. His policies would still be terrible for the country, and at best only slightly better than Bush’s. Plus in some ways they are worse, such as with his tax plan and health care plan.

    Of course I never expected Bush to turn out to be as bad as he did.

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