Obama Maintains Lead In Swing States

I have not posted very much on the presidential election polls as polls taking place before Labor Day have very little predictive value. With the number of potential new voters, it isn’t even clear as to whether polls this fall will be predictive. I am posting this as there were a number of stories in the past week about McCain gaining on Obama, or even retaking the lead in swing states. For whatever it is worth, Quinnipiac’s Swing State Poll continues to show Obama doing very well, even if McCain has moved a little closer:

  • Florida: Obama has 46 percent to McCain’s 44 percent, compared to a 47 – 43 percent Obama lead June 18;
  • Ohio: Obama has 46 percent to McCain’s 44 percent, compared to a 48 – 42 percent Obama lead least time;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 – 42 percent, compared to 52 – 40 percent.

There are plausible scenarios for Obama to still win if he only wins Pennsylvania of the states above but wins in some other former red states where he is also doing well. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which McCain can win without taking at least two of the three above states.

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