I’ve seen a lot of polls cited which show that Democrats want Hillary Clinton for vice president or that Obama would do better with her on the ticket. There are some problems with this analysis. Clinton should be expected to poll well for the vice presidential spot due to name recognition. There is an excellent chance that who ever is eventually picked will be someone that most non-political junkies don’t even know of at present. Clinton is also at her strongest point with regards to polling for vice president having come off a campaign where Obama took the high road and did not bring up hardly any of the baggage which comes with Clinton. The Republicans will bring it all up (and probably find or invent a bit more), weakening her as a vice presidential candidate.
AP has a better take on the question, showing that Clinton both helps and hurts Obama with different groups:
Lots of Democrats love Hillary Rodham Clinton. Yet plenty of Republicans, conservatives and all-important independents can’t stand her, suggesting possible pitfalls for Barack Obama should he make her his vice presidential running mate.
The intense dislike for Clinton suggests that besides support from women and others she could bring to the ticket, she might make it harder for Obama to win over some independents, a pivotal swing group in the November election against Republican John McCain. It also means she might push some Republicans and conservatives to vote against the Democrats — or donate money to the GOP — who might otherwise lack motivation to do so because of tepid feelings toward McCain.
A substantial 32 percent of independents strongly dislike Clinton, 10 points more than say so about Obama, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll. Independents, a group that both Obama and McCain won during their party primaries this year, comprised a quarter of voters in the 2004 election and have been closely contested in every presidential election since 1992.
In addition, 67 percent of Republicans have very unfavorable views of Clinton, 24 percentage points more than feel that way about Obama. Among conservatives the spread is similar — 58 percent say they feel very negatively about her, 18 points more than say so about Obama.
Many of those who will not vote for a ticket with Clinton on it will not vote for a Democrat under any circumstance. There are many other voters who do support Obama but have an unfavorable view of Clinton. This should not come as a surprise after the primaries:
Other groups with significantly stronger negative feelings about Clinton than Obama include whites under age 30, male college graduates, white men and whites earning at least $100,000 a year.
Yes, us “elitists” don’t like Clinton at all. While I would still vote for any ticket headed by Barack Obama as opposed to John McCain, many others in these demographic groups will not. Another problem is that factors beyond what those expected often become more important:
History shows that vice presidential nominees don’t always work out as planned.
Gallup polls showed that when Rep. Geraldine Ferraro became the first female major party vice presidential candidate in 1984, over half said she made them likelier to back the party’s ticket, headed by Walter Mondale. By October, after much of the campaign ended up focusing on questions about her husband’s taxes, more people said her presence made them likelier to vote against Mondale than for him.
If Ferraro’s husband’s financial dealings were a problem, just wait until the voters learn about Bill Clinton’s financial activities after leaving office.
The two party system has served to form two broad coalitions composed of people who share some views and disagree on others. There is no inherent reason why religious voters should also agree with conservatives on economics or support the war in Iraq. There are actually strong reasons for them not to, and many are now questioning Republican viewpoints.
For years the Republicans have managed to keep their diverse coalition together. The height of this came when George Bush gave the religious right far more than any of his predecessors, who would typically appeal to them during elections but give them very little. With the overall collapse of the Republicans there is more of a chance that religious voters will reassess their allegiance to the Republicans. Obama might appeal to many as the more openly religious candidate. From there they might be more open to listening to Democratic viewpoints than they have in the past on other issues.
Hopefully Obama can also transform the way they look at politics and government. Historically religious leaders have often been strong supporters of separation of church and state, as Obama has noted himself. Hopefully Obama can also convince religious voters of the importance of separation of church and state, including to guarantee them the ability to worship as they choose, as opposed to using government to impose their religious views.