California Voters Now Prefer Obama Over Clinton

The logic behind the Clinton argument that she is more electable than the presumptive nominee is based upon the assumption that Clinton would win the big states whose primaries she has won but Obama cannot. I’ve noted several flaws in the big state argument in the past. New Jersey has already provided one example of where Clinton won the primary by ten points but a subsequent poll in late April showed Obama leading Clinton by seven. California now provides another example.

A recent poll shows that, “California voters would change their February primary vote for Hillary Clinton to a vote for Barack Obama if the vote were held again.” Clinton won the primary by ten points, but the poll shows that if they could vote again, California voters prefer Obama by seven points.

This has no bearing on the primary which already occurred, but like the poll in New Jersey does demonstrate that Obama can pick up support over time and win the states in November which Clinton won in the winter and spring. Obama would also do better in a general election race in these states than Clinton would since there is a different population of voters in the general election than in the primary.