Pennsylvania Polls Debunk Clinton Electability Argument

Noam Scheiber has presented some additional evidence to debunk Clinton’s big state argument, which I discussed yesterday. Clinton argues that her victories over Obama in certain big swing states means she would have a better chance in the general election. While she does cherry pick her examples to make this case, for the sake of argument we’ll ignore Obama’s numerous victories in battleground states and once again just look at the lack of correlation between victory in a primary and winning a state in the general election.

Clinton’s argument is fallacious as there is no correlation between how one does in a primary and the general election since we are looking at such different populations of voters. Often the loser of a primary actually has a better shot at winning the state in the general election because, even if they are weaker among the party faithful voting in a primary, they can appeal to a wider range of voters. Scheiber demonstrates this point with polling data out of Pennsylvania.

The polls show Clinton leading Obama by eighteen points in Pennsylvania. Clinton’s big state argument would use this to predict a victory that she has a better chance of winning the state in the general election. At the moment both actually trail John McCain, but Obama’s deficit is three points compared to a six point deficit for Clinton. Just as I argued yesterday, Clinton’s big state argument just does not hold up.

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  1. 1
    Dr Prakash says:

    Dear American


    It is incredibily unacceptable the arguments Hillary’s camp is making about electabilty. Hillary has shown throughout this capaign that she is not only controversial on her debates, but also her ambitious and nagging assaults on her opponent. I cannot understand how American people can make such a drastic mistake to even consider Clinton as the nominee. To have an angry leader to lead such a great nation, like Hillary, is just like putting a child in the hands of a fostering mother. Fed up with Hillarism! I refuse to have her as my president. American people are not that fool!
    Billhilarysm? Never again

  2. 2
    Rev Shallom says:

    What a shame! Hillary is taking advantage of the rumours -of course, false, about Wright’s comments on Obama. What has Obama to do with it? Absolute Nonsense!
    What about the racist comments her camp, including nagging Ferraro’s, have made agaisnt Obama?
    Secondly, Hillary is trying to forfeit Obama’s chance of being the nominee for president. She would definetely lose to John McCainn. She has no credentials to succeed, though she is always using a false rethoric caled “expeirence”
    Can the American people buy this commodity? I don’t think so
    Away, Hillary, not my president!

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