Setting Expectations For Tuesday

Tuesday’s primaries may or may not settle the race. Mark Ambinder reports on a conference call which does not make it sound likely Clinton will leave the race if there is any way she can argue it is a win. He says the bottom line:

Is that if Clinton wins the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she’s staying in the race.

Even if she loses the delegate race in Texas.

He also demonstrates how difficult it will be for Clinton to win the nomination. In theory she can win:

But lots of things have to break her way. If, say, voting ends and the press discovers that Obama has a secret second family in Idaho and all his superdelegates abandon him; if, for some reason, she wins 75% of the popular vote in the states after Ohio and Texas and half the remaining superdelegates; if, by slow attrition, he closes the delegate gap to about 70 and picks off two thirds of the remaining superdelegates; if the pledged (Obama) delegates concur with the credentials committee and seat the (Clintonian) Florida and Michigan delegations) — then, yes, it’s possible.

It looks like the reality of the race is that it will be very difficult for Clinton to win the nomination, but she might remain in the race as long as there she sees any chance at all.

Obama’s campaign Manager David Plouffe argues that the math does not work out well for Clinton:

It is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago – they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

So if we have narrow wins in the popular vote for Clinton in both Texas and Ohio, both camps will be declaring victory Tuesday night.

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6 Comments

  1. 1
    Angelight says:

    Who has been Swiftboating Obama, the Canadian Memo, where did that come from and who called Goolsbe and set him up? Who pushed up Rezko’s trial which was to start much later this year? Why did Somali picture come out, along with Farrakahn endoresement and mocking of his middle name? We have to ask these things? Who does not want to give unity and hope a chance? Is this part of the Kitchen Sink or may be the Basement? I do know its dirty politics and until we reject this kind of politicking in America we will be a pawn in their hands, the people of power, and never find our true Independence which Obama is offering. The Evil Ones are just getting started. Someone is trying to pull our strings. The Truth will come out. Hopefully, America we can see through this Rouse this time and elect CHANGE!

    The Republicans would love to run against Hillary. They have so much dirt in their Arsenal waiting to be Unleashed!

  2. 2
    Donah says:

    Comment from Donah
    Time: March 4, 2008, 7:56 am
    No matter what middle name Obama has, our problem is that because he is a descendant of a muslim he is considered a Muslim by the whole Islam World and they will glee: Islam takes over tje American Casa Blanca… Allah Is Great ! All of Europe sees that but apparently the US does not… possibly because it is not nice to put somebody, a US Senator down that way….
    It is about time we don´t get influenced anymore by civil niceties…
    Sorry, but he has to be flushed….Donah ////

  3. 3
    Ameta says:

    From a Washington Post article by Dan Froomkin:
    (Can we remind younger voters about those days? These make Obama’s minor things very minor – Hillary is throwing rocks from a glass house)

    Some of the key kinks in the Whitewater tangle:

    A fraudulent $300,000 federally backed loan to Susan McDougal, some of which went into Whitewater Development Corp. David Hale, a former Little Rock judge whose company issued the loan, told investigators that Bill Clinton pressured him to do so.
    The mysterious disappearance and rediscovery of billing records showing the extent of Hillary Clinton’s legal work for McDougal’s savings and loan. Missing and under subpoena for two years, they turned up in January 1996 in the Clintons’ private quarters at the White House.
    The firing of seven members of the White House travel office in 1993, possibly to make room for Clinton friends – followed by an FBI investigation of the office, allegedly opened under pressure from the White House to justify the firings. Sometimes called “Travelgate.”
    The 1993 suicide of White House counsel Vincent Foster, hard on the heels of the travel-office imbroglio and his filing of delinquent Whitewater Corp. tax returns.
    The collection of hundreds of confidential FBI files on prominent Republicans by a minor White House operative in 1993 and 1994. Sometimes called “Filegate.”
    The more than $700,000 paid to former associate attorney general Webster L. Hubbell, most of it from friends of President Clinton and Democratic Party supporters, just as the former law partner of Hillary Clinton was coming under intense scrutiny by Whitewater investigators.

  4. 4
    Ron Chusid says:

    Donah,

    What difference does it make if Muslims consider him one? That doesn’t change what he believes or what he would do as president. Obama is a Christian regardless of whether Muslims consider him to be one by descent.

    (On a related matter, while politically it would be a problem, what difference would it really make if there was a Muslim president as long as he respected separation of church and state and opposed Muslim extremism?)

  5. 5
    Christopher says:

    Tom Brokaw citing a source very close to the Obama campaign who says there are an additional 50 Superdelegates are ready to go public before too long.

    Even if Hillary Clinton wins all 4 states today (she has a better chance of being struck by lightening) she will gains only 20 or so delegates.

    Barack Obama has a 100+ delegate lead.

    Add the 50 Superdelegates Brokaw references and it would effectively nullify her win, making it virtually impossible for Clinton to catch Obama.

  6. 6
    Ron Chusid says:

    I did see reports of that but I wonder if all those extra super delegates are firm for Obama or will only endorse him if he does well tonight.

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