It does not look like we have to fear that the super delegates will vote contrary to the voters. AP reports that since Super Tuesday many super delegates have announced their support of Obama, allowing Obama to close the gap:
The Democratic superdelegates are starting to follow the voters — straight to Barack Obama.
In just the past two weeks, more than two dozen of them have climbed aboard his presidential campaign, according to a survey by The Associated Press. At the same time, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s are beginning to jump ship, abandoning her for Obama or deciding they now are undecided.
The result: He’s narrowing her once-commanding lead among these “superdelegates,” the Democratic office holders and party officials who automatically attend the national convention and can vote for whomever they choose.
As Obama has reeled off 11 straight primary victories, some of the superdelegates are having second — or third — thoughts about their public commitments.
Take John Perez, a Californian who first endorsed John Edwards and then backed Clinton. Now, he says, he is undecided.
“Given where the race is at right now, I think it’s very important for us to play a role around bringing the party together around the candidate that people have chosen, as opposed to advocating for our own choice,” he said in an interview.
Clinton still leads among superdelegates — 241 to 181, according to the AP survey. But her total is down two in the past two weeks, while his is up 25. Since the primaries started, at least three Clinton superdelegates have switched to Obama, including Rep. David Scott of Georgia, who changed his endorsement after Obama won 80 percent of the primary vote in Scott’s district. At least two other Clinton backers have switched to undecided.
None of Obama’s have publicly strayed, according to the AP tally.
On a lighter note, there’s a wonderful new Obama meme at http://obamawill.com Very funny!
Not only this but I have the first poll up that I’ve seen (if there are others, I haven’t seen them yet) showing Barack Obama leading the Borg Queen in Ohio.
This really surprises me.
I understand how Obama could easily take Texas but Ohio is the sort of state that seemed tailor made for Hillary.
In any event, there’s no way the Borg Queen can catchup to Obama in delegates now. I predict she will withdraw from the race after March 4th.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Ohio, but if Obama wins, even by a handful of votes, it is the end for Clinton.
Ohio seems “tailor made for Hillary” only because of the dynamics of the race so far. Clinton has done better with Ohio’s demographics, but there is no good reason for this. Basically poorly educated/low information voters have bought Clinton’s argument that she is better for the middle class, even though Obama’s economic plans are actually better.
It is notable that the unions have seen through this and are supporting Obama. As time goes on more voters are also realizing this. There is already talk of Clinton supporters considering how to get Hillary to drop out if she doesn’t do well on March 4.
I’m not sure that Ohio is “tailor made” for Clinton. It seems that her demographic has been reduced to some women over 50 and white people who don’t have a college degree and make less than $50,000/year. (Full disclosure: i’m white and make less than 50K/year) The former is easy to understand. The latter gets credited to her having stronger ideas for helping the middle class. I call BS.
A great many white people who make less than 50K/year have absolutely no idea what is going on in the world. Clinton is name that they know and they figure that they were better off the last time a Clinton was in office than they are now. I could be wrong, though, because those sorts of people are less likely to vote in a primary (though maybe that’s some of her trouble).