Obama’s victories of the past week appear to be giving him another bump in the polls. The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows Obama back within the margin of error after Clinton briefly moved back out to a lead. Today Clinton leads 46% to 44% with a three point margin of error.
I’ve seen criticism of this poll as underestimating Obama’s strength because, due to the smaller sample size of a daily poll, they allow a larger number of people who are less likely to vote. The argument is that Obama has done better than this poll shows because his supporters are more enthusiastic and turn out in higher percentages. (Apparently the votes of those enthusiastic “activists” who attend caucuses do not count according to the Clinton camp.)
If this argument is true, then Obama should do better in larger polls which can be more selective in counting those likely to vote. Regardless of the reason, Obama does even better in two other polls released today. The USA Today/Gallup Poll (yet a different poll from the Gallup organization than the tracking poll above) shows Obama leading 47% to 44%. This is within the poll’s margin of error, but it is notable that this is the first time Obama has led Clinton. Obama beats McCain 50% to 46% while McCain beats Clinton 49% to 48%.
The AP-Ipsos Poll has Obama leading Clinton 46% to 41% with a 4.3% margin of error. Obama leads McCain 48% to 42% while Clinton leads McCain 46% to 45%.
Considering both the differences in the candidates and the differences in the polls against McCain, Clive Cook sees the choice as obvious for the Democrats:
What makes Mr Obama remarkable is that his message of hope, resonating so powerfully with black America, is cast to every American, regardless of colour, to Democrats and Republicans alike. This is surpassingly important: a man of outstanding intellect and magnetic personality, he is running on a one-nation platform, as though he merely happened to be black. And the best part is, the whole country is paying attention: polls say that he is more electable in November than Mrs Clinton. In a close election, he could make the difference.
Republicans, of course, are bound to dislike his liberalism – but what is there for Democrats to think about? Why are they even having this conversation? They have been waiting an awfully long time for a politician like Mr Obama. If, having come so close, they still manage to nominate Mrs Clinton, I think it is a choice they will regret for years and maybe decades.