As expected, Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory over Barack Obama in the popular vote in Nevada, but it looks like Obama won the real victory there. While Clinton did better in Las Vegas, Obama received more votes elsewhere, including in rural areas. According to the formula used to distribute delegates, which takes into account the number of Congressional districts won, Obama will win more delegates than Hillary Clinton. It appears that Obama will receive thirteen delegates while Clinton will receive twelve.
It looks like the Nevada caucus will be a wash in terms of the Democratic race and adding a western state will not have a meaningful impact as intended when the date was moved up. The caucus might have been more significant if Bill Richardson had remained a viable candidate.
If the race between Clinton and Obama remains close, John Edwards might become the king maker if neither of the major candidates can achieve a majority of delegates. Nevada won’t help Edwards as he was shut out, but I wouldn’t expect his type of populism to get much support west of the prairie states. We will have a better ideas as to whether Edwards can continue to receive enough votes to have an impact at the convention after South Carolina’s Democratic primary.
Mitt Romney won the bulk of the Republican delegates. The contest was not significant enough to have a major effect on the Republican race either, but a win in Nevada following Michigan does help keep Romney in the race.
Update: Further clarification of the delegate count
