Clinton Losing Lead in National Polls

The national polls are a virtually worthless means to predict who will win the nomination, but as they do receive attention I feel that today’s landmark should be noted. After Obama had a sound victory over both Clinton and Edwards in Iowa I felt confident he would win the nomination unless something unexpected should happen to totally shake up the race. As predicted, he quickly moved to a substantial lead in New Hampshire, and I figured the national polls would soon follow. Today Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton in the Gallup poll, erasing an eighteen point deficit. Edwards also moved up from the last poll and is closing in on Clinton.

Huckabee is in first place in the Republican polls, followed by Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, Romney, and Paul. The Republican race is less predictable. While I wouldn’t predict a Huckabee victory for the nomination based upon these polls, I wouldn’t write off his chances either. Assuming McCain wins in New Hampshire as expected, I think he has the best chance of winning but he still will face some obstacles. Giuliani’s chances fall the longer he goes without a victory, and Romney’s chances will fall significantly assuming he fails to win in New Hampshire. Ron Paul remains at 4% where he generally falls, showing that there is neither any meaning to his internet support and fund raising and no significant benefit. No amount of money would make Ron Paul appear to be a credible candidate.

Rasmussen’s tracking poll also shows Clinton’s lead evaporating nationally.haven fallen from 17% to 4%. Even that lead won’t last much longer.

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