Michael Bloomberg has denied he plans to run but has continued to do things to keep the idea alive. Forbes believes he is really running:
Look out, Hillary and Barack, here comes Mike. No, not Mike Huckabee (though he’d better watch out, too). Mike Bloomberg–Mayor Mike as millions of New Yorkers more or less affectionately call him.
And this time it is for real. Folks close to New York City’s twice-elected mayor suggest that he’s made up his mind to end one of the city’s long-running rumors and become an Independent candidate for president.
The date of his announcement? Pencilled in for right after Super Tuesday–Feb. 5. By then Bloomberg would have a pretty good idea of just who would be lining up against his third-party, self-financed billion-dollar campaign.
I’ve suspected that Bloomberg would wait to see who the nominees are before deciding to run, but perhaps it is true that he has decided to run and just wants to see who he would be running against before announcing. The opposing candidates might make a difference in the manner in which Bloomberg announces his campaign as he gives a reason for entering into the race. Bloomberg would probably frame himself as a moderate should Edwards get the nomination. This would not work as well should Obama be the Democratic nominee considering his greater appeal to independents and Bloomberg would have to concentrate more on his experience as a rational for running.
There is no guarantee this year that we will know who the major party nominees are after Super Tuesday. It is easy to conceive of scenarios by which more than one candidate in either party has picked up enough delegates to remain in the race if different candidates win in a number of states.
A victory for a third party candidate remains a long shot, but a combination of Bloomberg’s money and the use of the internet to assist organization makes it more possible than in the past. Bloomberg is also aided by a realignment which has been underway the past several years. The Republicans have lost the moderates as the religious right has gained influence, and this trend would be completed should Huckabee manage to win the nomination.
The Democrats received the votes of many independents and former Republicans in 2006 but this is not the same as permanent loyalty. Many Democrats remain in the mindset of the New Deal coalition and fail to understand the economic transformation of the information age. If the Democrats should adopt the populism of John Edwards, or should they continue to fail in providing a strong opposition to the extremism of the Republicans, there will be many people who are unhappy with both major parties and someone like Bloomberg might be able to end the current two party status quo.
Another question would be whether this is part of a long term effort to alter politics for those unhappy with the direction of either party or if it is just an exercise for Bloomberg’s ego. If there was a serious effort to provide a real choice to the “Starbucks Republicans” and fiscally conservative Democrats there would be far more reason to support a campaign which might lose in 2008 in the hopes of building something worthwhile for the long term. A serious third party bid might also force a change in the direction of one or both major parties, as has sometimes been how third parties have achieved some measure of success in the past.
