I’ve received tons of hate mail (which has been good for some laughs) following my recent assessment that, despite pulling in lots of money Ron Paul remains a fringe candidate with far too little support to win the Republican nomination. The responses have included a number of bizarre conspiracy theories (to be expected from Paul supporters) regarding the reasons for my prediction and post. The most absurd was that this has something to do with Israel even though the topic never even came up in my recent posts on Paul. It took a pro-Paul blogger, whose blog I will not provide a link, multiple lies in his post about what I wrote in order to make his claim. Truth and reality mean little to many of Paul’s fanatic on-line supporters.
Another humorous response was that I posted about Paul so that more people would click on my ads so I could make money. Ignoring the fact that blog ads based on clicking through rarely make money except for the biggest blogs, the person who came up with this theory might have first checked whether I even accept ads here. As I do not accept ads in order to prevent such outside influence on my views here (and as I really do not need the money) this theory is perhaps the weakest of all.
Despite many tons of comments with such off the wall theories, most of which contain a number of distortions of what I wrote so they can attack straw man as opposed to responding to what I actually wrote, none guessed at the real explanation for the prediction. I was simply writing the truth which most people, except the Paul supporters who are out of touch with reality, already know.
The facts as to Paul’s status as a fringe candidate can be seen once again in today’s Gallup Poll. Paul has fallen in support and is now down to three percent, tied with Allan Keyes. At least Paul beats Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter’s combined support. Giuliani leads and Mike Huckabee has stagnated in second. Of course as this is a national poll the comparative positions of the viable candidates doesn’t mean very much as everything can change after the Iowa caucus.
Paul’s real problem remains that, even if he is the best of the Republican candidates, his views are too far out of the mainstream of the Republican Party for him to win. While the polls are a reflection of this, having views which differ so greatly from most in the party is the more serious problem for Paul. We saw with Mike Huckabee that a candidate can move up from single digits to compete, but only if their views are consistent with those of the party. Paul’s supporters are also blind to how serious a problem Paul would have because of his failure to sever relations with white supremacist groups and his belief in conspiracy theories if he started to receive the same scrutiny provided to major candidates. Either of these problems would be sufficient to prevent him from receiving a major party nomination.
In the Democratic poll Clinton continues to lead nationally followed by Obama and Edwards, but this can also change after Iowa. Bill Richardson, who I thought had more potential earlier in the year, has fallen into fifth place behind Biden. While there is still a chance for Iowa or New Hampshire to shake up the race it is looking pretty unlikely for the more qualified candidates in the second tier to move up as I had hoped.
Update: More on this story at Pressing Matters, and AMERICAblog (found via Memeorandum).