Supporters of Ron Paul raised almost six million dollars yesterday, falling short of their goal of ten million dollars. This was another tremendous achievement, especially considering that this was the work of supporters and not the official campaign. However in failing to meet their goal it also shows that Paul supporters continue to overestimate their support and lack experience. Professionals would know to underestimate as opposed to overestimate the expected results and avoid such failure to meet their own predictions.
Just as they overestimated the expected contributions, it is safe to predict that Paul supporters will overestimate the meaning of accomplishment. While it certainly demonstrates the power of the internet to affect politics, it does not mean Paul has a chance to win the Republican nomination. We saw comparable expressions of on-line enthusiasm from supporters of Howard Dean in 2003-4, with Dean even leading in the polls. Such support does not necessarily translate into votes. Paul very will may exceed his place in the polls, and perhaps even manage an upset and win in some states, but his views are simply too far out of the mainstream of the Republican Party for him to have any chance to win the nomination.
Paul currently benefits from combined opposition to the war and a general disdain for big government which will allow him to pick up some votes beyond those of his die hard supporters. However there is a fairly low ceiling on his potential support, and he cannot hold up well to increased scrutiny. Should he move out of single digits and appear to be a real contender, he cannot count on softball interviews such as the one recently conducted by John Stossel which came off far more as an internal campaign presentation than an exercise in real journalism.
Paul currently receives support from a curious assortment of libertarians, paleoconservatives, white supremacists, neo-Nazis, and conspiracy theorists along with others who do not really understand the consequences of his views. Should Paul face greater scrutiny it will become apparent that he is far more a social conservative and states’ rights advocate than libertarian, and his views would likely lead to less rather than more freedom for most of the country.
One of the major challenges to individual liberty today comes from the increased influence of the religious right. Paul’s denial of our heritage of separation of church and state, and belief that the founding fathers intended to create a Christian nation, could have a devastating effect on freedom in this country should he be elected. The harm would be increased by the view of Paul and many of his supporters that Constitutional liberties only apply to the federal government and not the states, ignoring the 14th Amendment. Paul’s views on conspiracy theories will create further doubts as to whether he is intellectually fit to be president.
Ron Paul was a fringe candidate before the recent successful fund raisers. Now he’s a fringe candidate with a large amount of money, but still a fringe candidate. Having a lot of money will allow him to make the primaries more interesting, and continue his criticism of Republicans for their disastrous foreign policy and lack of respect for civil liberties, but will not affect the outcome of the race.
Update: Salty Pig claims that, controlled for inflation, Paul did not break Kerry’s record. He also notes that Paul supporters missed an opportunity here to point out the effects of currency debasement after only three years. Even if you accept his argument, this is still quite an accomplishment for Paul’s supporters considering Kerry had quite an advantage in fund raising after winning the nomination.
Update II: A number of Paul supporters have claimed that I am incorrect in my statement above that Paul’s supporters failed to meet their goal of ten million dollars. They are confusing the goals of the Paul campaign for the quarter, which have been exceeded, with the goals for yesterday’s money bomb. As is also noted at Slate, “Originally, the plan was to get 100,000 people to donate $100 each, giving Paul $10 million.”
On top of multiple erroneous claims that I was incorrect on this point, the mod que is full with the usual supply of insults which are generally directed against anyone who dares to disagree with Ron Paul, a number of the usual revisionist theories on the Constitution which show that the Constitution as viewed by Paul supporters is quite different from what was envisioned by the framers, as well as all the predictions of how Paul will win the election. My “favorite” is the guy who spent the time to send about ten comments full of irrational rants and then bragged about his ability to ignore the MSM and others who criticize Paul. Oh, the blogosphere would be a so much better place if only these people really did ignore criticism, or at least learn to respond to it in a rational manner!
Update III: What Will Ron Paul Do With All This Money?
Update IV: It’s after dark and the loonies are really coming out now. There’s more comments with paranoid ideas that this post is part of a conspiracy to thwart their “revolution.” One asks, “who do you work for and who do you serve?” If I didn’t think that most Paul supporters are too young to have watched The Twilight Zone, I’d be tempted to panic them by hinting at yet another, more horrifying, conspiracy by responding that my goal is “to serve mankind.” Paul can’t be totally blamed for his supporters, but how does one candidate polling at only around five percent mange to have so many kooks backing him? Remarkably, nobody has brought up the Council on Foreign Relations yet today.
Update V: Ron Paul gives a good answer to the question of what he will do with the money, but not many pay attention or give him credit for having the right idea on this.
Update VI: More proof of that Ron Paul is a fringe candidate. He can’t even beat Allan Keyes.
