James Boyce gives his views on the State of the Race at Huffington Post and I agree with much of what he says. While I do not think that a Clinton victory is inevitable, you’d have to give me pretty good odds to put money on any outcome other than Hillary Clinton winning the nomination and being sworn in as our next president in January 2009.
Any candidate can stumble, and choosing the candidate who might come from behind to win is still relevant at this point. Boyce has noticed, as I’ve frequently written here, that Edwards’ campaign is failing. In my view this is due to having a poor candidate who would have little chance regardless of the quality of the campaign staff. Boyce and I agree that the candidate with the momentum right now is Bill Richardson:
The state poll most recently out of Iowa shows me three things.
I like John Edwards personally and politically, but there is something missing this time around. He is rolling the dice on Iowa and as more and more people go on air there, he is losing ground not gaining it. I think the campaign is well run by smart people but maybe he has been too front and center for too long, but I see a continued fade there.
I also like Barack Obama and he has some great people working for him. But both nationally and in states where he is focusing, I don’t see any upward momentum. Same with Christopher Dodd.
However, Richardson is the only one who is moving up where he is focusing time. He has some, modest momentum. If he finished a strong second in Iowa, he would have some momentum. Will he ever overtake Hillary? That’s a long shot but if I was going to pick a horse other than Hillary, I would be picking Bill Richardson.
I wouldn’t write off Obama either, and of course Edwards still has a shot. I’d make it more of a three way race, with Clinton way out in the lead. At this point should Hillary get stopped I believe that the winner could be either Obama or Richardson.